Pennsylvania 2018

[dxu46]

Finally, here's a list of people who have successfully submitted a prediction for both divisions: 19sawickin, Ambrosia, Anomaly, antoine_ego, dxu46, East's Computer, EastStroudsburg13, flyingfish, hippo9, Jonboyage, jslocum, maxxxxx, Name, Paypog, pb5754[], photolithoautotroph, Pomegranate, rockhound, sciolyrules107, Tailsfan101, Unome, vehicleguy, waffletree, windu34, xandra

...

[pb5754]

Finally, here's a list of people who have successfully submitted a prediction for both divisions: 19sawickin, Ambrosia, Anomaly, antoine_ego, dxu46, East's Computer, EastStroudsburg13, flyingfish, hippo9, Jonboyage, jslocum, maxxxxx, Name, Paypog, pb5754[], photolithoautotroph, Pomegranate, rockhound, sciolyrules107, Tailsfan101, Unome, vehicleguy, waffletree, windu34, xandra

...

Doesn't East use a computer program or something to predict the winners?? Maybe that is what he meant... while the other East was his personal predictions.

[EastStroudsburg13]

Yep, that's just whatever order my computer algorithm spits out at me. I'll be posting my personal predictions eventually, probably tomorrow.

[vehicleguy]

Will you be at states east?

[UTF-8 U+6211 U+662F]

For anyone doing hovercraft: http://www.pascioly.org/index.php?p=PA_FAQs#1b states that an electric circuit schematic diagram is required for PA states (good thing I checked the FAQs before states because I did not know that)

[EastStroudsburg13]

Two days to go! Here are my predictions for states. As always, no offense is intended by these, and these are very likely to be wrong. If you like where I put you, prove me right! If you don't like it, prove me wrong! With that settled, here we go:

B Division

1. Springhouse - In a way, the past year has been a waiting game to see if Springhouse would slip up. Through Rustin, GV, and regionals, they look just as strong as last year, and while the gap between them and 2nd may be closer, their place at nationals should not be in doubt barring something unforeseen.
2. Shady Side - Their results throughout invitational season were stronger than last year, which is more indicative of their overall strength than regionals, which is susceptible to noise due to SSA's dominance there. A good day would see them challenge Springhouse, but regardless, they should end up closer to Springhouse than to the 3rd place team.
3. Bala Cynwyd - BC endured a difficult year last year, due to the loss of a strong class, but this year they've exhibited the yearlong improvement that has characterized BC for years. The battle for 3rd is likely to be a close one, but BC's upside could give them an edge.
4. Eagle View - Last year's 3rd place team and rapid riser plateaued a bit this year, appearing about as strong as last year's team, but perhaps a slight step behind. Still, though, this is a strong team, and by holding true, they'll keep the door open for future hopes of returning the Central region to the national stage. Top 5 is likely, and a good day could easily result in a second-straight third-place trophy.
5. Orefield - Orefield followed up last year's breakout with stronger performances across the board, including perhaps the best second-place score in region history. Another top 10 finish is in the cards, but Orefield's sights should be higher. Avoiding bombs will be the key, but if they can do that, a first top-5 finish in school history is definitely possible.
6. Strath Haven - They may have finished 3rd at regionals, but their score was weighed down by a couple high scores that they've had time to fix. Strath is a regular in the top 5, but due to a rather deep field of teams contender for the latter half of the top 5, I have them just outside. They could easily take the place of a team above them with a good day, or if one of them has a bad one.
7. Harlan Rowe - Yeah, I know, no Park Forest. I'll get to them later. Harlan Rowe is my breakout candidate for this year, with strong performances at Garnet Valley and Cornell, and a regionals performance that, while it lacked Park Forest and Wyoming Area in the field, still resulted in the lowest score since the days of Stroudsburg Junior High. While their exact placement is a bit up in the air, they should return the Northeast region to the top 10 of B division.
8. Garnet Valley - GV improved quite a bit last year, but couldn't parlay it into their first top 10 finish. They should make it this year, with another year of improvement and increased involvement in the invitational scene. While I am not sure that they have the high-end potential to win enough medals to push into the top 5, they'll likely have outstanding consistency and that should make them a safe pick to make their first top-10 appearance.
9. Franklin Regional - The three-time Southwest runner up may be too low here, as they've tended to outperform expectations the past two years. It's always tough to tell with no invitationals to go off of, though, and their regional score is not quite as high as the past two years. They've built up enough of a track record that I'm not going to bet against them placing in the top 10.
10. Park Forest - Speaking of track records! Park Forest's S7reak is arguably the most important streak ongoing in PA today. They've got an uphill battle this year though, with another year without invitationals in an era where more and more teams are attending, and their highest regionals score in quite some time. 7th is possible, but they'll have had to make up a lot of ground to do it. I'm not brave enough to leave them off entirely, though!

Honorable mention: Abington Heights has had a recent history of not performing up to potential at states, but their lowest regional score in history could indicate a return to the top 10... Hershey is defending a top 10 place from last year and is a solid year-to-year team, a couple results here and there could mean the difference between top 10 and missing it considering all the potential other teams... Stetson has had a strong year, and may be a top 10 favorite some years, but there are so many teams this year to try to beat out... Welsh Valley has the history, but they'd have to have improved a lot from regionals to return to the top 10 with so much depth elsewhere in the state... Kutztown Area is a bit of a wild card, but they've shown the ability to steal top 10 finishes in the past.

Other teams to watch: Whitehall-Coplay, Dallas, Wayne Highlands, Springton Lake, Spring Grove

C Division

1. Harriton - This team has designs on the top spots in the country. They may not win by as large of a margin as last year, but that's mainly due to improvement beneath them. It still should not be close.
2. Bayard Rustin - Yet again, the race for 2nd place in C division is the most intense in the state. Rustin started off the year well, placing strongly in their normally busy invitational slate, but perhaps did not do as well as hoped at regionals. However, this is now a team that is used to making nationals and knows what it takes to get there. Rustin had the medals to hang with the other teams in their tier, and they have the experience to clean up any bombs. It'll come down to the wire, but I'm predicting Rustin to defend their spot.
3. Lower Merion - This is LM's most accomplished team in quite some time, and they're poised to have a great shot at nationals. This race could easily come down to a couple events. Unfortunately for LM, I see these two teams as a toss-up, and in the event of a toss-up, I go with history. But LM's return to nationals, and a Lower Merion School District sweep of C Division, is well within the realm of possibility.
4. Conestoga - This team might be the most snakebitten in the state. It's really unfortunate that they haven't made a nationals appearance yet. However, I don't know that this team is the one to break that trend, as I see this year's versions of LM and Rustin as both being stronger than last year's Rustin. It's an uphill battle, and I think Stoga will have to wait another year.
5. Penncrest - Penncrest is a good team, don't get me wrong. However, the second tier is just too busy at this point, and the likelihood of them beating all three teams above them is very low. Still, they'll stick around the 5th spot, still poised for a possible improvement in the future to reclaim their spot closer to the top.
6. Shady Side - SSA has worked incredibly hard to break into the cadre of SEPA teams that make up the top 5, and were unlucky not to do so last year. This year will be tougher, though, as last year's team had a longer track record of impressive results, and this year's SEPA teams beyond Harriton are just a bit better. They're strong enough to stay safely above any challengers below them though, and should once again be the top non-SEPA team in the state.
7. Northwestern Lehigh - NWL has hovered around the back end of the top 10 for some time now, and this year should be no different. While it'd take a Herculean effort to challenge the top 6, they have the ability to stay ahead of all other challengers.
8. Abington Heights - AHHS took a big step last year by winning the Northeast region and making the top 10 in the state, both school firsts. They appear to be a little bit behind where they were last year, especially based on invitationals, but they've started to come on strong, and a top 10 return seems probable.
9. North Pocono - Another NEPA team, North Pocono has yo-yoed around the 10th place spot for the past 5 years. This year will be no different, but their consistency at invitationals and strong medal placings at regionals bode well for another placement on the higher side.
10. State College Area - I expected to have this spot reserved for North Penn. Then the Central regional happened, and SCA and Cumberland Valley were clear above the rest of the region. Both teams could be the Central team to return to the state top 10, but my bet is on State College. They have a history of improving greatly between regionals and states, partially due to the fact that regionals is generally their first competition of the year, and their first regional win since returning to Central, which has become a quietly deep region, is an indication that they could make the top 10 for the first time since 2010.

Honorable mention: As mentioned, Cumberland Valley also had consideration as this year's breakout team. Their massive improvement is not to be underestimated, and they have talent from Eagle View. Their future is bright, and they could make a statement this year... SEPA is known for their top 5, but North Penn had a solid invitational season, showed improvement from last year in a tough regional, and is a relatively new team with upside. However, improving from 18th to 10th in one year is a big leap, and I'm not positive a 19-point regional improvement indicates that big a leap... Perkiomen Valley is as solid as any team, and even though the field of potential top 10 teams feels especially deep this year due to the emergence of the Central teams, PV has been here before and won't make mistakes, which could be key... Stroudsburg has the potential to make the top 10 if everything goes well, but could be crowded out by other teams like they were last year; they'll have to make some inroads into the medaling places and avoid bombs to make it.

Other teams to watch: Parkland, Garnet Valley, Central York, Hershey, Allentown Central Catholic

Final Notes: I haven't really addressed the Northwest region in the above post. As the weakest region in the state, they are unlikely to challenge at the top 15 this year. However, the Laurels in both divisions could push for top 20, which would be a decent step for the region. Kane Area is the only current team in the region that has qualified for nationals, but they returned to states this year, and can serve as a reminder that the teams in this region can make an impact under the right situation. Seneca/Wattsburg have already started attending Mentor, and a rumored CMU invite could also help this region and Southwest. If a team can take control and become a constant top-15 threat, it can really help to raise the profile of the region within PA.

[Anomaly]

Good luck to everyone competing at States tomorrow! You can probably find me in the main place where awards and stuff are for most of the day, and I’ll most likely be panicking.

[Froggie]

I’ll most likely be panicking.

That’s a very accurate description of me and probably many others.

[waffletree]

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!!

[pb5754]

Will there be a live spreadsheet or something?