Unome wrote:LIPX3 wrote:Alex-RCHS wrote:Are you guys worried at all about the time between putting the hot water in the beaker and putting the beaker in the device? I’m worried that the cooling in that time period will have so significant an effect that prediction will be close to random. (In fairness, I haven’t tested myself yet so I could be blowing this out of proportion. I’m just curious what you all think.)
I am worried about this. However, under the last line of 4.d., the rules say that we may measure the temperature of the water in our beaker.
Yeah, this seems like a pretty good way to negate that factor. Theoretically, the cooling time begins when you receive your water, so if you can estimate the time elapsed between when you get your water and when you measure the temperature yourself, you can avoid both the time difference and any error or instrument biases in the event supervisor's announced temperature (which, with this method, ends up being irrelevant to your prediction anyway).
Also, being slightly off on the prediction doesn't matter that much. If your predicted temperature was 80 degrees and it actually was 78, your PE would be 0.975. If your predicted temperature was 78 degrees and it was actually 78, your PE would be 1.
The person who was two degrees off would still get 24.375 points. The person who was zero degrees off would get 25 points.
Even if you were 20 degrees of (predicted 58, actual 78), you would still get about 18 points.