Scioly.org

Team counts have been mostly increasing for the past few years from 5270 in 2008 to 7874 in 2019, how much will this team count decrease for this year?

https://scioly.org/wiki/index.php/Numbe ... _per_State

According to google trends, (https://trends.google.com/trends/explor ... S&q=scioly), peak popularity was around early February last year, and the activity this year is approximately half of what it was at the same time last year - so I'd guess maybe only 2000-3000 teams this year?

I wonder how this will effect the number of national bids each state gets. If the number of teams drops that dramatically, it'll be interesting to see how the bids are redistributed.

I would expect roughly 50% drop this year, and probably a 10-30% "permanent" drop in future years (a year off is likely to cause a lot of the less invested teams to just passively drop the program).

Unome wrote: ↑October 4th, 2020, 6:43 pm I would expect roughly 50% drop this year, and probably a 10-30% "permanent" drop in future years (a year off is likely to cause a lot of the less invested teams to just passively drop the program).

Wow that many? or am I just not good with percentages
I'm kinda scared that's going to happen with the really small high school team because they're just straight up not having it this year and I'm not quite sure a lot of people know it exists... then again a good deal of the team last year will be freshmen next year, maybe that will help

LittleMissNyan wrote: ↑October 5th, 2020, 5:40 am

Unome wrote: ↑October 4th, 2020, 6:43 pm I would expect roughly 50% drop this year, and probably a 10-30% "permanent" drop in future years (a year off is likely to cause a lot of the less invested teams to just passively drop the program).

Wow that many? or am I just not good with percentages
I'm kinda scared that's going to happen with the really small high school team because they're just straight up not having it this year and I'm not quite sure a lot of people know it exists... then again a good deal of the team last year will be freshmen next year, maybe that will help

I think that the main things needed to start a team and keep it going is school cooperation and student willingness to compete :/ maybe advertisement and spreading the info about scio will get them to start the team again?
and even though they would drop, imo i think that some teams will come back after 1-3 years, due to scio (hopefully!) returning to normal.

sneepity wrote: ↑October 5th, 2020, 5:43 am

LittleMissNyan wrote: ↑October 5th, 2020, 5:40 am

Unome wrote: ↑October 4th, 2020, 6:43 pm I would expect roughly 50% drop this year, and probably a 10-30% "permanent" drop in future years (a year off is likely to cause a lot of the less invested teams to just passively drop the program).

Wow that many? or am I just not good with percentages
I'm kinda scared that's going to happen with the really small high school team because they're just straight up not having it this year and I'm not quite sure a lot of people know it exists... then again a good deal of the team last year will be freshmen next year, maybe that will help

I think that the main things needed to start a team and keep it going is school cooperation and student willingness to compete :/ maybe advertisement and spreading the info about scio will get them to start the team again?
and even though they would drop, imo i think that some teams will come back after 1-3 years, due to scio (hopefully!) returning to normal.

Plus, think about how recruiting will go down. Some less competitive schools likely use the concept of going on trips/adventures with the team as a means to recruiting, and I can definitely imagine a huge drop off in membership from people who are less passionate about science/Science Olympiad, because sitting in front of a computer and taking an online test is certainly a lot less appealing for a prospective member than going on a fun bus ride with friends/hanging out at a competition or two.

And once a program suffers a massive drop from membership, will they be able to recover? For some, yes, but I'd imagine if a school was still shaky on doing SO in 2019 or 2020 seasons, this may put the program at a point from which it can't recover.