Scioly.org

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div C:

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. Centerville/Mason
7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
11. Acton-Boxborough
12. New Trier
13. Mounds View
14. Chattahoochee
15. Columbia
16. Boca Raton
17. 'Iolani
18. Fossil Ridge
19. Munster/Carmel
20. Ladue

I think chattahoochee should be higher

Ashernoel wrote:

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div C:

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. Centerville/Mason
7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
11. Acton-Boxborough
12. New Trier
13. Mounds View
14. Chattahoochee
15. Columbia
16. Boca Raton
17. 'Iolani
18. Fossil Ridge
19. Munster/Carmel
20. Ladue

I think chattahoochee should be higher

I could see us being in 12th, maybe 11th if we get lucky, and possibly as low as 18th or 19th (depending on whether/how much 'Iolani and Fossil Ridge improve). Considering how Northville and Stevenson are (both appear to be correlating pretty well with Daniel Wright and Meads Mill so far - if that continues, they should be hitting their peak right about now), and WW-P North being really good this year (as well as motivated by Montgomery to improve) I don't think we could make it to top ten as we are now - though of course things could change; we'll see how the state tournament goes.

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:

1. Beckendorff
2. Solon
3. Meads Mill
4. Daniel Wright
5. Kennedy/Churchill
6. Piedmont
7. Tower Heights/Magsig
8. Springhouse
9. Marie Murphy
10. Gelinas
11. Lakeshore
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. WW-P Community
15. Eagle Hill
16. Ladue
17. Dodgen
18. Auburn
19. Pembroke Hill
20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. Centerville/Mason
7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
11. Acton-Boxborough
12. New Trier
13. Mounds View
14. Chattahoochee
15. Columbia
16. Boca Raton
17. 'Iolani
18. Fossil Ridge
19. Munster/Carmel
20. Ladue

Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.

maxxxxx wrote:

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:

1. Beckendorff
2. Solon
3. Meads Mill
4. Daniel Wright
5. Kennedy/Churchill
6. Piedmont
7. Tower Heights/Magsig
8. Springhouse
9. Marie Murphy
10. Gelinas
11. Lakeshore
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. WW-P Community
15. Eagle Hill
16. Ladue
17. Dodgen
18. Auburn
19. Pembroke Hill
20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. Centerville/Mason
7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
11. Acton-Boxborough
12. New Trier
13. Mounds View
14. Chattahoochee
15. Columbia
16. Boca Raton
17. 'Iolani
18. Fossil Ridge
19. Munster/Carmel
20. Ladue

Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.

Whatever happened to Bayard Rustin? Haven't they always been the runner-up behind Harriton and the favorite for the 2nd ticket to nationals

windu34 wrote:

maxxxxx wrote:

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:

1. Beckendorff
2. Solon
3. Meads Mill
4. Daniel Wright
5. Kennedy/Churchill
6. Piedmont
7. Tower Heights/Magsig
8. Springhouse
9. Marie Murphy
10. Gelinas
11. Lakeshore
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. WW-P Community
15. Eagle Hill
16. Ladue
17. Dodgen
18. Auburn
19. Pembroke Hill
20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. Centerville/Mason
7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
11. Acton-Boxborough
12. New Trier
13. Mounds View
14. Chattahoochee
15. Columbia
16. Boca Raton
17. 'Iolani
18. Fossil Ridge
19. Munster/Carmel
20. Ladue

Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.

Whatever happened to Bayard Rustin? Haven't they always been the runner-up behind Harriton and the favorite for the 2nd ticket to nationals

To me, Rustin doesn't seem to be on the same level as the last few years; after the strong showing at MIT (considering they were somewhat split) I think Conestoga will make it, with Rustin in 3rd. Regardless, I wouldn't rank either of them higher than 17th (on my mental list I currently have PA team 2 at 21st).

PA B: Considering the exceptionally weak performances of Bala Cynwyd and Shady Side so far, I'm not ranking any of them in top 20. Franklin Regional, Strath Haven, and Eagle View actually have pretty good shots at qualifying this year (idk how Welsh Valley is doing).

Predicting the order of the 10-20 teams seems like mostly a toss up. Predicting the top five are much more fun. Soooo... what are the odds Troy wins first? 5 to 1 ?

Ashernoel wrote:Predicting the order of the 10-20 teams seems like mostly a toss up. Predicting the top five are much more fun. Soooo... what are the odds Troy wins first? 5 to 1 ?

I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.

Oh hey, it's time to share picks!

B Division
1. Beckendorff
2. Solon
3. Daniel Wright
4. Meads Mill
5. Kennedy/Churchill
6. Longfellow
7. Piedmont
8. Marie Murphy
9. Tower Heights (if Magsig, 3 spots lower)
10. Springhouse
11. Gelinas
12. Lakeshore (if Baker, 4 spots lower)
13. Community
14. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
15. Dodgen
16. Ladue
17. Eagle Hill
18. Bearden
19. Hamilton
20. Chippewa

C Division
1. Troy (CA)
2. Seven Lakes
3. Mira Loma (if Mt View, 9 spots lower)
4. Harriton
5. Solon
6. Northville
7. LASA (if Clements, 9 spots lower)
8. New Trier
9. Centerville (if Mason, 1 spot lower; if Mentor, 5 spots lower)
10. Mounds View
11. Stevenson (IL)
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. WWP North (if Monty, 8 spots lower)
14. Columbia
15. Chattahoochee
16. Munster (if Carmel, 4 spots lower)
17. Boca Raton
18. International Academy Central (if Troy, 2 spots lower)
19. Ward Melville (if FM, 1 spot lower)
20. Brookwood

It is striking to me how many teams I had to leave off the C list. Fossil Ridge, Rustin, Iolani, Camas, and Ladue all just missed.

As for Rustin, I don't necessarily think they're going to fall super far; I still have them as a slight favorite for 2nd over Stoga. They have a massive body of work over invites, so I'm not super concerned about a slightly more lackluster performance at Penn. Do I think they're as good as the last couple years (or Penncrest of the late 00s)? No, probably not. But they have what it takes to make nationals, and Stoga still has that mental hurdle to clear.

As for B, I think the second spot is Shady Side's to lose, but it's close. Definitely feel like the 2nd PA team is at risk for potentially falling out of the top 30. We'll have more information about how the teams stack up after regionals happen, but my current ranking would likely look like Shady Side, Bala Cynwyd, Strath Haven, Eagle View, Franklin Regional (with the last being especially difficult to rank because there's no invite results to compare)

And finally, for odds: 2 to 1 seems fair, since we have all the state tournaments to get through. However, I find it fairly likely that their odds will go up after them, since I don't see any team coming close to challenging them yet.

NOTE: These are not equivalent to the to top 25 rankings I will be submitting. They are very similar in places, but not exactly.

Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centreville
6. Adlai E. Stevenson
7. Solon
8. LASA
9. Northville
10. Mounds View
11. New Trier
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Chattahoochee
14. Fayetteville-Manlius
15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
16. Bayard Rustin
17. Boca Raton
18. Columbia
19. Carmel
20. Iolani

LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

1. Troy
2. Seven Lakes
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centreville
6. Adlai E. Stevenson
7. Solon
8. LASA
9. Northville
10. Mounds View
11. New Trier
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Chattahoochee
14. Fayetteville-Manlius
15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
16. Bayard Rustin
17. Boca Raton
18. Columbia
19. Carmel
20. Iolani

Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low