Scioly.org

I think its time:

1. Harriton - exceedingly strong state performance coupled by team momentum from last year puts them at #1 for me
2. Mira Loma - based on Golden Gate and state performances, very strong team all around and don't see them falling much
3. Troy - certainly stronger than last year, but wouldn't say top 2 due to certain weak events
4. Solon - I find the state results misleading. Even with 2 bomb events (which likely occurred due to chance because of the nature of Optics and WIDI), they were a very close 2nd. I see them doing very well this year
5. LASA - coming off a strong state performance as well as a continuous national contender
6. Northville - strong team. Don't really know a ton
7. Clements - breakthrough state performance coupled with an absurd amount of members appearing on the forums insinuates high level of motivation and drive amongst the team
8. Mentor - strong state and invitational performances
9. Stevenson - I don't really have much to say about this
10. Acton Boxborough - historically strong team with strong state performance as well as invitational. Many national-medaling veterans on this team I believe
11. Mounds View - despite all the talk of a decline, they still appear strong and while I can see them falling to the mid-teens, they could also remain here
12. Chattahoochee - similar state performance to last year and strong invite performances. Up and coming team that I foresee in the top 10 soon enough
13. WWPS - strong performance at state
14. Fayetteville-Manlius - Don't have much to say about this either
15. Boca Raton - Strong group of underclassmen coupled with experienced senior class

I'm too uncertain on the rest to continue

Trying top 30 this time since it's so competitive (and actually wrote descriptions for all of them):

1. Harriton - After that state performance, it's really hard to put them any lower. We'll see how it goes though, PA wasn't as competitive at the top this year as usual.
2. Troy - No explanation needed. MIT and Golden Gate scores are plenty sufficient, though they have tended to get weaker throughout the season during the past two years.
3. Solon - I'll pretty much echo windu on this one, they're stronger than their state score appears. Probably their strongest team since 2013.
4. Mira Loma - Did really well at state (after finally stacking), and of course winning nationals last year probably helps.
5. LASA - A very strong state score and several good results, but I doubt they could beat any of the teams above them (or that any of the teams below them will rise any higher).
6. Northville - State score is not typically very indicative for them (for reasons outlined on the Michigan state thread), but invitational results are promising (if not quite to the level of the peak 2013 and 2014 Meads Mill teams).
7. Mentor - Same as in my previous predictions, Ohio teams are typically good at translating state success to nationals, and they did very well at state. I would expect to see them anywhere in the bottom half of the top ten.
8. Munster - Has come roaring back this year, destroying their state tournament. I don't quite think they're as good as the peak 2015 team, but it also depends on how the teams around them are. In addition, they'll have to recover from missing a year.
9. Clements - Just 2 points behind LASA at state, although they haven't yet finished in the top ten at nationals. I think they have a good shot this year though.
10. New Trier - As of winning state I will put them in here, though barely. I wouldn't be surprised to see them as low as 14th.
11. Stevenson - The Daniel Wright teams seem not to have been able to translate their success into Div C as well as Meads Mill; this team should be very similar to Daniel Wright's 2013 team. We'll see how it goes though; they did very well at Nationals last year.
12. Mounds View - They seem to be getting to the point of being underrated, which is rather strange considering the exceptionally low score that they needed for 10th place last year. They don't seem to have dropped much this year (though it's hard to compare them as MN competition isn't all that strong).
13. Fayetteville-Manlius - Did very well at state, but I don't know if they can return to the top ten at Nationals after missing a year and not doing so well at invitationals.
14. Acton-Boxborough - The 10th-14th place teams were difficult for me to rank, and unfortunately A-B got the short straw. They're still about as good as in past years, but there are so many good teams this year that's it'll be very difficult for them to do much better.
15. Chattahoochee - Though they've done about as well as last year (which should thus rank them lower) they are a bit more consistent this year in most cases.
16. WW-P South - Two years missing nationals will probably take a toll, and combined with the strength of the teams this year, I don't see them any higher than 15th.
17. Ladue Horton Watkins - Very strong state performance this year, which should push them up quite a bit, though how far is hard to tell; the second quintile, as it often is, is the most crowded.
18. 'Iolani - Have been steadily improving over the last few years, though there's not much to go by.
19. Columbia - Seems a bit low to me considering past placements, but I'm hesitant to rank them much higher given the improvement some of the other teams have shown.
20. Boca Raton - They've been about as strong as last year, but I rank them higher due to declines in the teams below them.
21. Fossil Ridge - Though they still won state by a higher margin, their second and third teams weren't as strong this year (last year they finished 3rd and 4th), so I don't think they'll be quite as good.
22. Bayard Rustin - Their state score shows a rather significant decline of around 30 points, so I'm hesitant to rank them higher, even though this would be the lowest placement of a PA C team since 1992.
23. IA Central - Did pretty well at invitationals (including Wright State), though they were still handily beaten by Northville and the top Ohio teams. Though they were close behind Northville at state I don't think I can put them any higher; Troy was just as close behind but finished far back at Nationals. That combined with common first-year difficulties at Nationals keeps them down here.
24. Charter of Wilmington - Their state score showed a tremendous improvement, going from 114 to 45. They could go higher than this, but I'm not going to do that without more evidence.
25. Brookwood - Consistent as always. They don't seem to be having an especially good or bad year, and should finish in the usual range. This is about where I'd say the unusual competitiveness of Nationals this year ends (perhaps one or two teams up).
26. Pembroke Hill - Honestly I have no idea where to place them. They've been in this range for a while though, and their Nationals placement doesn't seem to correlate much with state scores.
27. Camas - The onetime threat to finish in the top ten is no longer as strong, but should be good enough to manage top thirty at least.
28. Auburn - This being probably Auburn's strongest team ever (the same group that finished 10th in Div B 3 years ago), they should do well. They don't quite appear to have sandbagged their builds at MIT (as is common for them), but they definitely weren't at peak strength (for one, they didn't medal in Towers).
29. NCSSM - They appear to have an especially strong team this year, but will have to pass the same hurdles as other NC teams (an especially tall task in Div C, where NC replaces five events).
30. Lincoln Southwest - Ever since their sudden rise two years ago they've been in the 20th-30th range, though it's hard to tell if this was temporary or is going to continue.

Honorable Mentions: Olathe North, Medford, Enloe, Centennial, Fairfax, and possibly duPont Manual (unsure).

Unome wrote: Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?

John Richardsim wrote:

Unome wrote: Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?

VA Division C

TJHSST got 2nd, Fairfax got 1st

Adi1008 wrote:

John Richardsim wrote:

Unome wrote: Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?

VA Division C

TJHSST got 2nd, Fairfax got 1st

Lol, sorry; I did mean Fairfax (don't know why I thought it was TJ...)

I'll put down my top 30 here too, with explanations as well.

1. Mira Loma - I can't bring myself to put Harriton first, since I don't want to jinx them. I'm putting the defending champs instead, who really have seemed to come on strong between states and nats recently.
2. Harriton - Not much extra to say here that hasn't already been said about their potential this year. Instead, I'll talk about how they gave standing ovations to LM and Rustin at the awards ceremony, with obvious sincerity; everyone knew they were taking first, but it was a really classy move. Also, major props to Stoga for also giving a standing ovation to Rustin, even though they were obviously disappointed for not making nationals. I love PA SO, in case you can't tell.
3. Troy - Earlier this year, this would have seemed crazy. But I worry about their relatively high scores at regionals and states; can they really turn it on when it matters?
4. Solon - Again, echoing past statements. This Solon team is good. I may have put them 4th, but they're not all that far off from the top.
5. LASA - It's been historically difficult to correlate Texas states with nationals. This really seems like the safest spot to put them.
6. Northville - Been consistently strong this year. Score of 148 doesn't look great, but quality control of MI states this year is in question, and it's still impressive when considering 60 teams were there, as opposed to 48.
7. Stevenson - Despite placing behind NT at states, I have a feeling they'll pull ahead at nats, based on history. I don't know that they'll get much higher than this, but I'm expecting a top 10 finish.
8. Mentor - May have gotten 15th last time at nats, but this team is much stronger.
9. Mounds View - It is really hard to rank this team. Perhaps they have had issues this year, but their states score did not reflect that. They could easily get more points than last year and place higher.
10. New Trier - Also difficult to rank. Strong Illinois state score could offset past sub-10 results. Strong invite results pushed them above other teams for me.
11. Munster - 9 through 13 was immensely difficult for me. Munster is really good, and is located pretty close to nats, but the pool this year is really deep, which could push them out of the top 10. On the plus side, this would give them the DuPont award!
12. Acton-Boxborough - I do honestly believe they are making a strong push for top 10. This is going to be an incredibly tough year in which to do it, though. While MA is comparable to MN, A-B just doesn't have the same track record as MV, and there are so many tough teams.
13. Clements - Again, it's really hard to correlate TX states to nationals. You could easily convince me to put them in front of all the teams from 9-12. Unfortunately, I look at their history and I just fear that there's not enough to push them up to the top 10 this year.
14. Fayetteville-Manlius - I just get the sense that this team is behind the group above them. It's difficult to know what to make of the NY C teams after last year.
15. WWP South - They're making their first nationals appearance in a couple years, but they should be fine due to their history before that.
16. Columbia - See F-M above. Columbia should probably stay around the range they've been at.
17. Bayard Rustin - They're not as good as last year's team, but are more nats-experienced than 2015's team. They should still crack top 20.
18. Chattahoochee - Made a huge jump last year. My formula doesn't like them a lot, but I have more faith that they'll avoid that much of a drop.
19. Ladue Horton Watkins - With strong states score and improvement from last year, top 20 seems very likely.
20. Boca Raton - Was strong at invites, but would have liked to see a lower states score before putting them much higher than this. Still should be a safe bet not to finish too much lower than this.
21. Fossil Ridge - Came out of nowhere (relatively) to place 17th last year. Should still be a factor, but a slight drop may occur.
22. International Academy Central - Want to rank them higher, but don't know how they'll fare against the first-year nationals trend.
23. Iolani - I don't really see them improving from last year. It's difficult to judge with a small-sized state, especially when the state tournament doesn't run all events.
24. Lincoln Southwest - Nebraska's state tournament goes with maximum points instead of minimum. When converted, LS got 48 points in a tournament of 34 teams. No matter the state, that's impressive; do not sleep on this team.
25. Charter School of Wilmington - Showed vast improvement in state score, but it's hard to compare to the other uber-impressive scores that have appeared out there. Top 30 appears a lock, but exactly where could vary.
26. Brookwood - Basically what Unome said. Should be around where they're expected to be.
27. Pembroke Hill - Falling behind Ladue is more because of their improvement than a significant drop for Pembroke. However, they're at risk for falling below the 30th threshold if they're not on point at nats.
28. William G. Enloe - Has been the better NC representative for the past few years, and they're arguably better than last year's team based on points. I sense a top 30 return.
29. Medford - It is honestly very difficult to place them. Wisconsin C has been in the top 30 every year since 2001, but this is a tough year for a debut team. However, I had trouble picking one of the honorable mention teams above them, so I'm saying they just squeak by.
30. NCSSM - Were very impressive at NC states. If they can adequately adapt to the normal events, they have definite potential.

Honorable Mentions: DuPont Manual, Centennial, Archimedean, Fairfax, Auburn, Camas

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:I'll put down my top 30 here too, with explanations as well.

1. Mira Loma - I can't bring myself to put Harriton first, since I don't want to jinx them. I'm putting the defending champs instead, who really have seemed to come on strong between states and nats recently.
2. Harriton - Not much extra to say here that hasn't already been said about their potential this year. Instead, I'll talk about how they gave standing ovations to LM and Rustin at the awards ceremony, with obvious sincerity; everyone knew they were taking first, but it was a really classy move. Also, major props to Stoga for also giving a standing ovation to Rustin, even though they were obviously disappointed for not making nationals. I love PA SO, in case you can't tell.
3. Troy - Earlier this year, this would have seemed crazy. But I worry about their relatively high scores at regionals and states; can they really turn it on when it matters?
4. Solon - Again, echoing past statements. This Solon team is good. I may have put them 4th, but they're not all that far off from the top.
5. LASA - It's been historically difficult to correlate Texas states with nationals. This really seems like the safest spot to put them.
6. Northville - Been consistently strong this year. Score of 148 doesn't look great, but quality control of MI states this year is in question, and it's still impressive when considering 60 teams were there, as opposed to 48.
7. Stevenson - Despite placing behind NT at states, I have a feeling they'll pull ahead at nats, based on history. I don't know that they'll get much higher than this, but I'm expecting a top 10 finish.
8. Mentor - May have gotten 15th last time at nats, but this team is much stronger.
9. Mounds View - It is really hard to rank this team. Perhaps they have had issues this year, but their states score did not reflect that. They could easily get more points than last year and place higher.
10. New Trier - Also difficult to rank. Strong Illinois state score could offset past sub-10 results. Strong invite results pushed them above other teams for me.
11. Munster - 9 through 13 was immensely difficult for me. Munster is really good, and is located pretty close to nats, but the pool this year is really deep, which could push them out of the top 10. On the plus side, this would give them the DuPont award!
12. Acton-Boxborough - I do honestly believe they are making a strong push for top 10. This is going to be an incredibly tough year in which to do it, though. While MA is comparable to MN, A-B just doesn't have the same track record as MV, and there are so many tough teams.
13. Clements - Again, it's really hard to correlate TX states to nationals. You could easily convince me to put them in front of all the teams from 9-12. Unfortunately, I look at their history and I just fear that there's not enough to push them up to the top 10 this year.
14. Fayetteville-Manlius - I just get the sense that this team is behind the group above them. It's difficult to know what to make of the NY C teams after last year.
15. WWP South - They're making their first nationals appearance in a couple years, but they should be fine due to their history before that.
16. Columbia - See F-M above. Columbia should probably stay around the range they've been at.
17. Bayard Rustin - They're not as good as last year's team, but are more nats-experienced than 2015's team. They should still crack top 20.
18. Chattahoochee - Made a huge jump last year. My formula doesn't like them a lot, but I have more faith that they'll avoid that much of a drop.
19. Ladue Horton Watkins - With strong states score and improvement from last year, top 20 seems very likely.
20. Boca Raton - Was strong at invites, but would have liked to see a lower states score before putting them much higher than this. Still should be a safe bet not to finish too much lower than this.
21. Fossil Ridge - Came out of nowhere (relatively) to place 17th last year. Should still be a factor, but a slight drop may occur.
22. International Academy Central - Want to rank them higher, but don't know how they'll fare against the first-year nationals trend.
23. Iolani - I don't really see them improving from last year. It's difficult to judge with a small-sized state, especially when the state tournament doesn't run all events.
24. Lincoln Southwest - Nebraska's state tournament goes with maximum points instead of minimum. When converted, LS got 48 points in a tournament of 34 teams. No matter the state, that's impressive; do not sleep on this team.
25. Charter School of Wilmington - Showed vast improvement in state score, but it's hard to compare to the other uber-impressive scores that have appeared out there. Top 30 appears a lock, but exactly where could vary.
26. Brookwood - Basically what Unome said. Should be around where they're expected to be.
27. Pembroke Hill - Falling behind Ladue is more because of their improvement than a significant drop for Pembroke. However, they're at risk for falling below the 30th threshold if they're not on point at nats.
28. William G. Enloe - Has been the better NC representative for the past few years, and they're arguably better than last year's team based on points. I sense a top 30 return.
29. Medford - It is honestly very difficult to place them. Wisconsin C has been in the top 30 every year since 2001, but this is a tough year for a debut team. However, I had trouble picking one of the honorable mention teams above them, so I'm saying they just squeak by.
30. NCSSM - Were very impressive at NC states. If they can adequately adapt to the normal events, they have definite potential.

Honorable Mentions: DuPont Manual, Centennial, Archimedean, Fairfax, Auburn, Camas

Just wanted to chime in about Troy's regional score. They actually sent their B Team to regionals because their A team was at Golden Gate lmao.

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:18. Chattahoochee - Made a huge jump last year. My formula doesn't like them a lot, but I have more faith that they'll avoid that much of a drop.

I'm interested to hear what your formula says about us, especially if it's weighted by regionals and state scores (considering we moved to Brookwood's regional this year and still had a better score). State - yeah, we didn't do that great. However, we did have a team member missing due to Quizbowl state (hence the low Mat Sci placement), though I guess that's not really something a formula can take into account.

radactyl

SexyTrubbish wrote: I certainly agree with this post, but I would like to make

My list:
1. William P. Clements - Beat Seven Lakes (which was 2nd at mit) and have gotten super good super fast. Who knows where they will stop.. Additionally, they currently have two Optics gods, 1 WGYN god, and also a very god like indoor bottle rocket duo (Even though it's not official?), so I would like to place them here.
2. Troy - they are op.
3. Solon - they have been super strong every time i have seen them, and their history is great...
4. Lasa - narrowly beat Clements at state but clements rate of improvement is greater bc of last
5. Harriton - lower than texas teams bc of MIT but still strong.
6. Mira Loma - They didn't do that well at golden gate but won nats last year so...
7. Northville - did super well at wright state
8. Stevenson - Lost a lot of ppl so it will be hard but they will be strong prob.
9. Acton Boxborough - idk seems like a good place to plop them.
10. Mentor - Ohio teams are ruthless and had a good state performance
11. Chattahoochee - faith in the Unome to get his team where he wants to go.
12. WWP - idk much about these but they seem good.
13. New Trier - similar place we got last year. Only two people at practice today, so team is ded.
14. Fayettville Manlius - They have good build events (towers?) i think which will help them get points and do well.
15. Munster - poor wright state, no nats last year, but indiana W and strong.
16. PA2 = good?
17. Iolani - did well at golden gate for the events they did and cute name

Im not gonna say that 1st at nats being clements impossible, but its highly unlikely. Idk what your "god" standards are nor your justifications for the titles, but 2 of those events are irrelevent at nationals. Another point is it takes more than 3 events to medal as a team at nats. Also 1st place at state in an event can often translate to the teens at nats. Its hard ti compare a state competition to nationals