I've had some people ask, so I guess I'll put my personal predictions up also. I'm going to do top 15 mainly because I had 15 teams I really wanted to bring up in C division, and I'm going from 15 to 1 because I feel like it.
Also just a reminder that there is a 0% chance these predictions turn out exactly right; some teams will disappoint, and others will surprise. This is all about ranges where I see teams stacking up, and I have never claimed to be perfect.
B Division
15.
Good Hope - I was optimistic for them at regionals, and were a couple bombs away from making my pick of 2nd for them look smart. If they can clean up the bombs, they should press closer to the top 10, but that's not necessarily an easy ask.
14.
Welsh Valley - Since dropping down from their perennial top 10 placements, they've settled in around here. I'd be surprised if they were more than 2 places off of this.
13.
Park Forest - I'm very interested to see where they finish. Regional scores would estimate they're about the same as last year, but PF has a history of improving between regionals and states. Their floor isn't too much lower than this.
12.
Orefield - Their results at invites and regionals have lagged behind last year pretty consistently. Many people have been putting them in the top 10, which I think is definitely possible, but they'll have to have a clean day without bombs to do it.
11.
Franklin Regional - Is this the team that got 5th in 2016 and 2017, or the one that got 12th last year? Scores would indicate somewhere in between, but closer to the latter, and with increased competitiveness in the state, matching their peak will be very tough.
10.
Hershey - Always a sleeper, Hershey has finished in the top 10 in 3 of the past 4 years. Their score wasn't great at regionals, but was dragged down by some bombs. With a team that has a history like this, I'm inclined to believe those bombs will get mostly cleaned up, leading them to sneak into the top 10 yet again.
9.
Abington Heights - It seems like every year now that AH is in the conversation for top 10, but they haven't made it in since 2013. They were in last year before a score correction, so can they pull through this year? They should, but we'll see.
8.
G.A. Stetson - Somewhat overshadowed by other teams in their region, Stetson has slowly bridged the gap. They should make top 10, and could surprise with how close to the upper tier they are by score.
7.
Garnet Valley - Finally making the top 10 for the first time last year, GV looks the part of a yearly fixture now. The top 6 is really tough this year, though, so it'll take a big effort to place higher than this.
6.
Strath Haven - I really wanted to put them 4th, I really did. But I don't see it happening this time around. Surprise me!
5.
Eagle View - Lost in the hype of the top 4 is that this was Eagle View's best-ever score at regionals. If any of the next three teams has an off day, Eagle View could be there to swoop in.
4.
Harlan Rowe - I'm fully on the Harlan Rowe Hype Train, but this was a really rough year to have a school-best team. If they had this sort of season two years ago, they might be favorites for second place, but the history of the two teams above them, combined with their strong teams this year, is hard to ignore. How much of their 34-point score was the cause of a weakened regional that's down to 17 teams and now lacks Wyoming Area in addition to its other defunct teams? We'll see.
3.
Shady Side - This is a bit of a hot take, but their regional scores have never really correlated with how they do at states. This team will definitely be strong, but any cracks in their armor should be exploited by...
2.
Bala Cynwyd - Last time BC's team was anywhere near this dominant at regionals, they nearly won states. The competition is tougher this year, but 2017 notwithstanding, BC has reliably overperformed at states compared to regionals. It'll be a dogfight for this spot for sure, but the more I think about it, the more I don't want to bet against a return to nationals for BC.
1.
Springhouse - This seems like a foregone conclusion, and almost an afterthought. But they're not as strong as last year, and some of their wins over the past four years haven't been very comfortable. I still see them as the clear favorite, but if they don't take care of business, the margin between first and not even making nationals at all is closer than one may think at first glance.
C Division
15.
Abington Heights - The tough part in Div C this year is that I see 10th through 15th as a very close tier, with any team having a realistic chance at making the top 10. I had to pick someone to miss, and with Abington Heights having a worse score and placement at regionals than last year's team that finished 13th, they seem the shakiest of the six.
14.
North Penn - I would say their regional finish erred a bit on the disappointing side; not that they lost to Garnet Valley, but that they weren't really super close to them. They have the upside to place higher than this, but it'll take a greater improvement from regionals to states than they've shown in the past.
13.
State College Area - At first glance this feels low, because they should be more prepared for states than the 2016 and 2017 teams that finished 12th. But the tiers of strong teams have grown. Avoiding the bombs they saw at regionals will be the ultimate key to breaching the top 10.
12.
Garnet Valley - In contrast to North Penn, I was impressed by GV's showing at regionals, particularly getting back under the 200-point mark. They've never gotten top 10 (in fact, this would match their highest placement), which is what holds me back from placing them higher, but this team seems as equipped as any to set a new school record.
11.
Perkiomen Valley - It kills me to put this team outside the top 10. But their results at BVF and regionals make this seem like a much less strong team than the past two years. Still, I can't write them off completely.
10.
Parkland - This team finally came together to meet their potential (sort of) by winning their region. The big issue for them is team chemistry and motivation, because they've got as much talent as any team. I've picked them 10th of the bubble tier because they have the greatest upside, and I think their sheer level of experience in high-pressure tournaments from Div B gives them a floor against most bombs, but I want to see them actually finish out a year strong first before putting them any higher.
9.
North Pocono - One of the most consistent teams in the state (9th, 10th, or 11th in 6 straight years), they reclaimed their regional crown and look like the same North Pocono team we expect. This might be a tough year, but NP has the chops to keep their spot.
8.
Northwestern Lehigh - Their 2nd place finish at regionals might be considered an upset, but this is a team that's still well-built for states. I would be surprised if they don't place at least 10th, and I think they're a decent bet to place higher than Parkland.
7.
Shady Side - SSA has flown a bit under-the-radar this season due to CV's breakout, but they warrant a second glance. While their invitational placements were not necessarily spectacular, they did break a record for lowest score at Southwest regionals for C division. They've struggled to make any inroads on the upper tier of SEPA teams, but this could be a year where they bridge the gap quite a bit.
6.
Conestoga - Stoga's had a rough time of it, too often getting surpassed by SEPA teams it's beaten at regionals, and not surpassing teams it's lost to often enough. I think they're plenty capable of placing higher than this, but history just isn't on their side here.
5.
Penncrest - They might not be challenging for nationals spots anymore, but this is still a tough team that will make you work to beat them. They have a history of placing higher at states than regionals, so the teams above them should be careful.
4.
Cumberland Valley - It can't be emphasized enough that what CV has done this year is a tremendous achievement; they've grown from a non-competitive team at regionals to an elite threat in just two years. Since 2012, the entire top 5 for Div C has been made of SEPA teams, and it's been 14 years since a Central team has placed in the top 5. But the experience of teams like Rustin, LM, and Harriton, who have been here before, is invaluable, and as SSA can attest,
really tough to beat. They're good enough to beat Stoga and Penncrest, which is a significant accomplishment in itself, and if they have a good day, I can see them beating Rustin too. But even though they've beaten LM twice this year (and Harriton's freshmen once), this is going to be a completely different animal. It'll take a remarkable effort to make nationals, but if they do, it'll be one of the best upsets and stories in PA history.
3.
Bayard Rustin - Like BC in B division, Rustin has made a habit of making significant improvement between regionals and states. But they ground they have to make up is a tough ask. They've passed tough tests before, but defeating one of LM or Harriton might be their toughest yet.
2.
Lower Merion - This is a team best equipped to defeat Harriton at states in several years. Their SOUP placement showed that they're ready to go toe-to-toe with high-level teams, and I think they're a dark horse for the back end of the top 10 at nationals. But while their consistency bodes well for nationals, they may find themselves
juuuuust short of...
1.
Harriton - Their (relative) struggles this year have been well-documented. But while they started the year with a few problem events, they've really whittled that down to just one: Mission Possible. With two months to work on it, I have to imagine that they come to states with a high-level device. Their other events will all be medal favorites, and they'll get their share of gold medals as well. Plus, in the past 10 years, they've actually had a
lower score at states than regionals 6 times (and last year their 47 points was 3 shy of their absurd 44 points at regionals). LM has provided a great test this year, but with Harriton winning 20 of the last 21 state titles, I'm not betting against them.
So there it is. Both divisions have their own sets of intrigue this year, with favorites, underdogs, and dark horses galore. This has been a very fun year to follow, and hopefully it'll culminate in an exciting finish this weekend!