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It is also interesting that the event schedule for states is different than most regionals, which can impact some events dramatically, more so considering the 5 ninth grader rule. Let's keep this fun and spirited. I think everyone wishes that states (Ohio) were this weekend too.

lovescience wrote:

Crazy Puny Man wrote:

ThatRoboGuy wrote:Saying that Chardon won't hit top five though is disappointing to see. Second at Regionals (To the national champions, Solon, who got first) and Chardon won't be in the top five? That just...no.

Yes - all true BUT someone was going to take second to Solon and there were only what, six or seven points between Chardon and Memorial? That is not a big lead, and there are other teams out there doing just as well in their regions. One of them may have also come in behind Solon and just beaten Memorial. All I am saying is that the competition is fierce and some of the teams, Memorial, Magsig, etc. know how to compete well in the tougher events. I think the ones to watch are Mason and Westlake. They may surprise everyone.

MMeteorite1 wrote:It is also interesting that the event schedule for states is different than most regionals, which can impact some events dramatically, more so considering the 5 ninth grader rule. Let's keep this fun and spirited. I think everyone wishes that states (Ohio) were this weekend too.

lovescience wrote:

ThatRoboGuy wrote:Saying that Chardon won't hit top five though is disappointing to see. Second at Regionals (To the national champions, Solon, who got first) and Chardon won't be in the top five? That just...no.

Yes - all true BUT someone was going to take second to Solon and there were only what, six or seven points between Chardon and Memorial? That is not a big lead, and there are other teams out there doing just as well in their regions. One of them may have also come in behind Solon and just beaten Memorial. All I am saying is that the competition is fierce and some of the teams, Memorial, Magsig, etc. know how to compete well in the tougher events. I think the ones to watch are Mason and Westlake. They may surprise everyone.

Are you talking about Ohio specifically, or just in general? Because here in Tennessee, our regional has the exact same schedule for state (except that they had to switch two events around). And is the ninth grader rule not enforced at Regionals for you guys? I'm assuming that Solon, Memorial and the like farm from their sister C division teams.

[quote="MMeteorite1"]It is also interesting that the event schedule for states is different than most regionals, which can impact some events dramatically, more so considering the 5 ninth grader rule. Let's keep this fun and spirited. I think everyone wishes that states (Ohio) were this weekend too.

I agree - the schedule really makes a difference and does impact results. That is a good point. It does differ from the Regionals here in Ohio and we do have the 5 9th Grader rule. I think some of the experience though really has to do with how well a team knows how to prepare, based on past experience in general - that month or so between regionals and states can be a blessing or a course depending on how it is treated. It would be nice to see some of the "greener" teams have success at States this year.

My best guesses:

Tie at the top - I think there are primarily two contenders, who were virtual ties last year (5 points apart is a statistical tie haha)
1. Daniel Wright - they are only getting better.
1. Solon - tradition.
3. Meads Mill - now having more experience at nationals, they definitely can push to the top.
3. Marie Murphy - also another contender.
5. Churchill
6. Booth - perennial contender.
7. Beckendorff
7. Shady Side
9. Muscatel
10. PJ Gelinas

Crazy Puny Man wrote:

ThatRoboGuy wrote:Saying that Chardon won't hit top five though is disappointing to see. Second at Regionals (To the national champions, Solon, who got first) and Chardon won't be in the top five? That just...no.

Yo, calm down bro, all you gotta do is prove 'em wrong in 5 weeks time

^^^

I would watch out for Westlake at the Ohio state tournament. They did well at the mentor inviational and lost second place to shadyside by only a point.

All I know about Nationals results is the results from soinc.org, so I really have no experience with this:

1. Solon (You all keep debating about someone else winning, but I notice the same thing happening for the last four years)
2. Marie Murphy (Marie Murphy is in that middle ground, significantly behind Solon (and Daniel Wright last year), but significantly ahead of the next place)
3. Meads Mill (The results seem to indicate that they will stay solid)
4. Daniel Wright (Daniel Wright's 2nd last year seemed like a minor anomaly to me, I think they'll probably still be top 5, but not so high as 2013)
5. Winston Churchill (They've performed well this year, but I'm not really sure where they stand)
6. Magsig (I'm guessing Magsig for this one, but Memorial/Chardon would probably place similarly)
7. Shady Side (I'd say top 3 is a bit too high for them since they haven't broken top ten in several years, but 7th seems reasonable to me)
8. JC Booth (I don't know for sure, but I'd say that they're either going to climb a bit, or drop a lot)
9. Paul J. Gelinas (tough call because I don't know much about them, but I think they're likely to make top ten)
10. Muscatel (Muscatel seems to have consistently been around 10th for the past 5 years (except 2011), so I'm guessing that they'll stay that way)

kentuckyfan1001 wrote:My best guesses:

Tie at the top - I think there are primarily two contenders, who were virtual ties last year (5 points apart is a statistical tie haha)
1. Daniel Wright - they are only getting better.
1. Solon - tradition.
3. Meads Mill - now having more experience at nationals, they definitely can push to the top.
3. Marie Murphy - also another contender.
5. Churchill
6. Booth - perennial contender.
7. Beckendorff
7. Shady Side
9. Muscatel
10. PJ Gelinas

Probability to win top trophy:
Meads Mill 55%
Solon 50%
Churchill 40%
Marie Murphy 38%
Daniel Wright 36%

IK agree with Unome. It seems like theres a general pattern. But we have to remember that many of the schoold that get top 5 in the last few years just jumped into there almost out of nowhere. There could be some magic team that nobody noticed before which owns the competition. I think we should watch out for some of the less competitive states like california, new york, etc.

Wil4+1 wrote:

kentuckyfan1001 wrote:My best guesses:

Tie at the top - I think there are primarily two contenders, who were virtual ties last year (5 points apart is a statistical tie haha)
1. Daniel Wright - they are only getting better.
1. Solon - tradition.
3. Meads Mill - now having more experience at nationals, they definitely can push to the top.
3. Marie Murphy - also another contender.
5. Churchill
6. Booth - perennial contender.
7. Beckendorff
7. Shady Side
9. Muscatel
10. PJ Gelinas

Probability to win top trophy:
Meads Mill 55%
Solon 50%
Churchill 40%
Marie Murphy 38%
Daniel Wright 36%

Those percentages don't add up to 100