jaggie34 wrote:*I'm not going to include my own school because I don't want to have any bias but here's what I think:
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Acton-Boxborough
5. Mounds View
6. WWPS
7. Seven Lakes
8. Columbia
9. Harriton
10. Mira Loma
11. New Trier
12. Ward Melville
13. Adlai E. Stevenson
14. Brookwood
15. William G. Enloe
16. TJHSST
17. Ed W. Clark
18. Bothell
19. Northville
20. Madison West
1. Troy: They're Troy, I don't think much else has to be said.
2-4. Solon, Mason, Acton-Boxborough: All top tier teams, I'm pretty confident that this will end up being the next three but there isn't much showing competition between each other besides Ohio States for Mason and Solon which made it tough to rank them.
5-8. Mounds View, WWPS, Seven Lakes, Colombia: Mounds View is always hard to rank since they go to so few invitationals, but I feel like this is about where they'll fall this year. WWPS is also tough because they usually don't stack for most of the year. Seven Lakes and Colombia both have beaten very high-level competition which is why I've placed them where they are.
9-11. Harriton, Mira Loma, New Trier: These three were probably the most difficult to place, mostly because I could see any of the three moving up into the next tier but I could also see them falling farther down. Harriton especially was difficult as history shows that they'll place top 10 but their result this year don't show a top 10 team in my opinion. The same thing goes for Mira Loma, except I think they have both a lower ceiling and a higher floor. New Trier meanwhile has done well at competitions but I placed them here purely because of the number of top tier teams this year.
12-14. Ward Melville, Adlai E. Stevenson, Brookwood: I haven't gotten a chance to compete against any of these teams but based on the invitational scores I have seen, this seems to be about right. Brookwood would jump up from 23rd last year but based on their score at states I feel comfortable with that.
15-20. William G. Enloe, TJHSST, Ed W. Clark, Bothell, Northville, Madison West: I've seen some of these teams in person and they definitely all have the potential to move up, I just placed them here partially because of uncertainty and partially because I feel that there are so many great teams this year.
What are everyone's thoughts?
First of all, uh hello? Rustin exists. They are absolutely going to get top 20. Even though their invitational performances weren't as good as other teams, they have certainly improved and are going to do well at nationals. At least put them around 15th. Second of all, Ward Melville is wayyyy too high. No offense, but their states score really was not impressive (at least compared to Columbia's- more on that in a second). They seemed to be a lot stronger earlier in the season, and unless they work really hard they're not going to be above 15th. I'd say 16th-18th, which is where everyone else is putting them. Third of all, Columbia is a tad too low for my taste. No one is acknowledging the fact that they got a record-breaking states score! It's
impossible to get a sub-100 score in New York div C. The fact that Ward Melville got to nats with 213 just goes to show you how well Columbia did. They should be 6th or 7th. Fourth of all, yes, Seven Lakes is really good and they're going to be top 10, but they're not as strong as previous years. They did medal a lot, and they were relatively consistent, but they didn't get as many gold medals as LASA and they certainly didn't beat LASA by a large margin. I know Texas is extremely competitive but I would place Seven Lakes at 8th or 9th. Now as for the rest of my points, I'm not as experienced with div C so I don't know if I'm qualified to say any of this, but here goes.
5. Bothell is too high. Historically, they haven't been top 20 for a while, and they only beat Camas on a technicality (sort of). I personally would not put them in top 20 and I think that they're not going to match how Camas would have done.
6. I honestly think that everyone is overrating Acton-Boxborough. Yes, their performance at MIT was unexpected and shocking and really, really good, but people are tending to forget that a lot of top teams were missing (read: Solon, Mason, Troy, WWPS, etc.) Of course, AB still was very impressive, but there were other factors that allowed them to win. I'd still place them in top 10 but maybe not top 5.
7. What is Brookwood doing so high up there? States scores (especially for them and Chattahoochee) don't exactly correlate to nats placement. Even though the disparity between the two teams was a lot more than it usually is, I still think they should be relatively close together, and Brookwood should not be in top 15. I'd say maybe around 18th for them (possibly lower) with Chattahoochee at least within 4 places of them. If you want to put Brookwood at 14th you need Chattahoochee top 20.
8. I feel like I want to say something about where you put Mira Loma and Mounds View, but I really don't know enough about the teams. Mira Loma seems fair but Mounds View might be a tiny bit too high? Anyway, most of your predictions are accurate. Keep improving them, though!
