Pennsylvania 2017

[what a beauty]

Hi everyone, these are my predictions from this years results.



1. Springhouse

2. Shady Side

3. Eagle View

4. Strath Haven

5. Franklin Regional

6. Bala Cynwyd

7. Park Forest

8. J.R Fugget

9. Hershey

10. Garnet Valley





Tell me what you think of these predictions.

[maxxxxx]

6. Bala Cynwyd

They've been top 4 for as far back as the wiki goes, and they had a considerably stronger Regionals performance than the last time they got 4th at States, so even with a stronger state, this still seems like a huge stretch to me.

[EastStroudsburg13]

The last time Bala got lower than 4th at states was 7th in 2004. I also feel as though 5th is probably the lowest Bala will get, since they're one of those teams that rarely does worse than anticipated at states. While it's not entirely impossible for Franklin Regional to leap them, it doesn't seem incredibly likely based on historical context and the scores from regionals that we have.

[maxxxxx]

The last time Bala got lower than 4th at states was 7th in 2004.

You're right, I totally skipped over that.

[ak12]

Lowkey checking back every few days to see if East has posted his predictions...

[LittyWap]

Here are my predictions for Division B

1. Springhouse
2. Shady Side Academy
3. Strath Haven
4. Bala Cynwyd
5. Franklin Regional
6. Eagle View
7. Garnett Valley
8. Park Forrest
9. Welsh Valley
10. Abington Heights

[Avogadro]

Lowkey checking back every few days to see if East has posted his predictions...

Same, honestly. The anticipation is building for this Saturday, and since I probably won't post here again until after States, I wish everyone luck.

[LittyWap]

Lowkey checking back every few days to see if East has posted his predictions...

I concur. Please post, I am dying to know.

[kendreaditya]

Here are my predictions for Division B:

1. Springhouse (94)
2. Eagle View (102)
3. Strath Haven (121)
4. Shady Side Academy (135)
5. Franklin Regional (183)
6. Bala Cynwyd (196)
7. Garnett Valley (209)
8. Park Forrest (227)
9. Welsh Valley (251)
10. Abington Heights (279)

[EastStroudsburg13]

My goodness guys, they're just predictions! I suppose I'll get them out of the way (although I don't want to get in the way of other discussion happening, of course!)

Division B
1. Springhouse: I am of the opinion that this team is better than what they showed at regionals. Yes, the team that got 37 points at regionals. There are other teams that are definitely coming on strong, but none of them has shown the upside that Springhouse showed at some very tough invitationals (WSU, Solon, Rustin). They have the talent to pull away from the rest of the pack.
2. Shady Side: Before regionals, this position would have been more of a tossup with Strath Haven, Eagle View, and Bala Cynwyd. However, a 38-point showing proved that Shady Side is back with a vengeance. 38 points, by the way, is lower than any point total since Sewickley left, which is perhaps more impressive considering the rise of Franklin Regional. Whether their relatively lackluster invitational showings were flukes, or they prepared significantly between invites and regionals, it's hard to bet against them making a return to nationals.
3. Strath Haven: Before Shady Side's dominant showing, Strath would have been a heavy contender for second place. However, while 74 points is quite impressive in a larger region, it still doesn't indicate the same dominance as 38. I do give major kudos to this team from coming back from somewhat of a lull the past three years, where they finished 4th in the state each year. It's the resurgence of Shady Side and Strath that has made this year in B division more competitive than perhaps initially expected.
4. Eagle View: I initially had Eagle View as a dark horse to finish second. While I don't necessarily know that they have the experience to overcome all three of Bala, Strath, and Shady Side, I definitely see them making noise in the top 5. They appear much improved from last year's team, which finished 8th in the state, and have backed that up with an 8th place at Rustin, where they tied the national qualifier from Maryland, North Bethesda, and a 4th place at Little Tiger, where they defeated Strath Haven. This team is for real, and I am hoping that they stick around longer than Allen did to become a real contender in the state.
5. Bala Cynwyd: It speaks to the growth of the three teams above that I've had to rank Bala 5th. As I mentioned before, it's been 13 years since Bala last placed lower than 4th at states, and this team is by no means the weakest Bala Cynwyd team since then. However, overcoming the 30-point gap with Strath Haven will be tough, and Eagle View is a real threat. I wouldn't be surprised if Bala places 4th, but in a tough year in the state, they might fall just short.
6. Franklin Regional: I do have to say, I was afraid Franklin Regional would fall more than they have. Instead, they've essentially held steady at worst, following up last year's 76 points with this year's 67. So why do I have them falling to 6th? Quite simply, Eagle View has improved a lot more, and I don't necessarily know they have the experience to overtake Bala. The strength of this year's Franklin Regional team is incredibly promising, though; they, like Eagle View, have a real chance to become a consistent contender. The emergence of these two teams could play a real role in increasing the overall competitive level of PA B division, which has historically lagged behind the C division, and that, I think, is something we all would like to see. Plus, there would be the added bonus of pushing Shady Side at regionals every year, which only helps both teams.
7. Park Forest: Amazingly, placing 7th for a 4th straight year is a VERY real possibility! This team is the model of consistency; while they don't really have a chance at making nationals, they're going to nab a few medals and find themselves in the top 10. Placing 2nd behind Eagle View in their return to the Central region is a very solid result, especially for a team that always tends to improve between regionals and states.
8. Garnet Valley: I will admit, if not for history, I would probably have them higher. Garnet Valley popped (relatively) out of nowhere at Rustin by placing 5th, ahead of Strath Haven, and then proceeded to be the first team other than Strath Haven and Bala Cynwyd to place in the top 3 at SE PA regionals AND defeat Welsh Valley. This team has legitimate talent. However, I wonder if they will have the experience to make significant headway on the upper echelons of this tournament. I am leaning towards no, and that they'll end up near the back of the top 10. Which is still a solid result; I don't think Garnet Valley has ever placed top 10 at states. This just happens to be a very tough year in the mid-high range of the top 10.
9. Welsh Valley: We're starting to get toward the bottom of the top 10, and here's where the variability is going to go way up. Teams rise and fall in this range all the time, resulting in teams like Tredyffrin Easttown last year that show significant improvement to jump up, and teams like last year's Wyoming Area that perhaps did not do as well as expected. Because of this, I'm going with the reliable Welsh Valley for 9th. Consider that they have placed in the top 9 every year since 2004 (apparently 2004 was a weird year for PA). Granted, they have also not placed outside the top 3 in the region since 2004, but I think they have enough experience to make it back into the top 10. At the very least, I've learned not to bet against them to do it.
10. Abington Heights: Alright, I admit to slight bias here; I will always have a soft spot for NEPA teams. However, Abington Heights has a very decent chance of making the top 10. This year was their best regional showing, both place-wise and points-wise, since 2013, which was also the last year they placed in the top 10 (8th). Also, the Northeast region has had at least one B team in the top 10 for basically the entirety of its history. Now, this streak might be threatened with the departure of Park Forest back to the Central region, but the region still has some solid teams, and Abington Heights is the best of the bunch.

Honorable mentions: Hershey performed solidly at regionals and likely will finish 15th at worst, but hasn't placed higher than 10th since 2009. They may fall just short again. J.R. Fugett probably has the most potential of any team I didn't rank, and is also the team that didn't qualify for states last year that is likely to place highest. I do have slight concerns that they may not have the experience to maintain the consistency needed to place top 10, especially since they placed 33rd last time they qualified for states, but if they put it all together they could finish right in the thick of the top 10. Wyoming Area and Spring Grove could make advances toward the top 10 if a lot goes right, but they seem more likely to fall in the 11-18 range. I'll identify Whitehall Coplay and Springton Lake as my dark horses; these teams have the history where a leap to the top 10 isn't out of the question. I should also at least mention Kutztown Area since they placed 10th last year, but this is an odd-number year, and they happen to do better in even years. I don't think another top 10 is very likely this year.

C rankings coming soon!