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Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 30th, 2017, 12:24 pm
by Anomaly
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Anomaly wrote:How did your computer get those calculations? (It interests me) Cause I know my school is going to do a lot worse than 17th.
It's a combination of various metrics, including:
- Number of teams at the team's regional
- The team's score at regionals
- The average score at states last year and the year before for all teams in that region that competed in those years (weighted to favor the more recent states)
- The team's place at states the past two years (weighted to favor the more recent place). If the team did not qualify, a value of 30 is assigned (unless extenuating circumstances apply, as judged by me.
)
- The number of competitions the team has attended the past two years
As you can see it simplifies a lot of different factors, so it's not perfect. For one, it doesn't really take into account scores at invitationals (which I have tried to mitigate by assigning bonus points, but it's a very subjective science so I try not to mess with it too much). Also, it doesn't take into account day-of variables: if team members are missing, if certain builds go wrong or get tiered, things like that.
As for Orefield, I wouldn't be so pessimistic. You placed second in a tough region, ahead of a team that's gotten 11th at two straight states. So unless you guys will be missing a significant portion of your team, top 20 seems reasonable to me. As long as you're still studying somewhat, of course.
EDIT: I will have to come up with my actual predictions still, but my top 6 will probably follow Anomaly's.
Interesting.... I haven't really done anything with stats yet, but that kind of calculation seems pretty cool. (nerd alert)
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 12:09 pm
by what a beauty
Out team is dying to get the team numbers for states. Why are they taking so long release the numbers for states.
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 12:50 pm
by antoine_ego
what a beauty wrote:Out team is dying to get the team numbers for states. Why are they taking so long release the numbers for states.
Does the team number actually matter for you guys? For Massachusetts at least it means absolutely nothing.
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 1:09 pm
by GoldenKnight1
what a beauty wrote:Out team is dying to get the team numbers for states. Why are they taking so long release the numbers for states.
Team numbers came out Thursday night after 11PM.
antoine_ego wrote:Does the team number actually matter for you guys? For Massachusetts at least it means absolutely nothing.
Unfortunately, yes. They run Disease in the second time block for all teams while the other events rotate in three different groups. That difference means while all teams have the same conflicts below for the first three time blocks they still have Disease placed into one instead of them based on the team number they have:
*Astro and Exp D
** Microbe, Remote, and WIDI
*** A&P, Eco, and Game On.
My guess is many teams would prefer having Disease in the first one since it has fewer events with one fewer team members plus no other Bio events at the same time. Another advantage of having Disease at that time is that Nationals and many of the other invitationals run Exp D and Disease together.
Thankfully this is far from the worst it has been in some other years.
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 1:15 pm
by what a beauty
YES IT DOES! We would have had a scheduling conflict if our number was higher than 60!
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 1:19 pm
by what a beauty
Did you guys make it to nationals from Massachusetts?
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 1:20 pm
by schist99centz
GoldenKnight1 wrote:what a beauty wrote:Out team is dying to get the team numbers for states. Why are they taking so long release the numbers for states.
Team numbers came out Thursday night after 11PM.
Our coach told me hasn't received them yet.
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 4:08 pm
by antoine_ego
what a beauty wrote:Did you guys make it to nationals from Massachusetts?
Yup
Good luck at states!
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 5:00 pm
by EastStroudsburg13
When they're announced, can someone provide them? I want to make sure I know which teams are competing before setting up the prediction contest.
Speaking of the prediction contest, would people prefer the form to be sorted by team number or by region?
Re: Pennsylvania 2017
Posted: March 31st, 2017, 7:42 pm
by maxxxxx
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:When they're announced, can someone provide them? I want to make sure I know which teams are competing before setting up the prediction contest.
Speaking of the prediction contest, would people prefer the form to be sorted by team number or by region?
I'm not sure if they're being released or announced online anywhere, they might just be sending them to coaches individually.
Also I would prefer by region since team number might make it a little bit harder to find all of the schools we want, but ordered by region makes it a lot easier to scope out a specific school.