Unofficial Rankings B

[EastStroudsburg13]

Just a couple thoughts:

• I don't think it's unreasonable to put Kennedy above Solon. All three of Community, Solon, and Kennedy have national-winning potential. How any one person ranks the three is really down to personal preference.
• While 11th is near the low end of the range for Springhouse, I could easily see them missing the top 10. It's important to keep in mind that last year was probably the outlier for them, not the trend. Small changes can have a big difference in final placement, and while I'd probably throw them in at around 9th, a finish of 11th is not unreasonable.
• For Slauson, 15th or 16th is statistically no different than 17th, essentially. I think 17th is more than reasonable, as this year's Slauson team has been weaker than last year's all season. In addition, not sure how you can say they usually improve between states and nationals when a) you have only one recent data point, b) they beat Meads Mill at states and lost to them at nationals, and c) their finish of 15th was the worst of any Michigan B champ since 2001.

The rest of the points I generally agree with (or at least think are reasonable). I do think Indiana teams need to be getting more love, especially TJ; they have a long history of nationals experience, placed 17th last year, and were pushed by Raymond Park to set a significant low in states score. They are likely under-hyped because of their lack of attendance at major invitationals, but they should be ranked more than they have been.

[kate!]

Just a couple thoughts:

• I don't think it's unreasonable to put Kennedy above Solon. All three of Community, Solon, and Kennedy have national-winning potential. How any one person ranks the three is really down to personal preference.
• While 11th is near the low end of the range for Springhouse, I could easily see them missing the top 10. It's important to keep in mind that last year was probably the outlier for them, not the trend. Small changes can have a big difference in final placement, and while I'd probably throw them in at around 9th, a finish of 11th is not unreasonable.
• For Slauson, 15th or 16th is statistically no different than 17th, essentially. I think 17th is more than reasonable, as this year's Slauson team has been weaker than last year's all season. In addition, not sure how you can say they usually improve between states and nationals when a) you have only one recent data point, b) they beat Meads Mill at states and lost to them at nationals, and c) their finish of 15th was the worst of any Michigan B champ since 2001.

The rest of the points I generally agree with (or at least think are reasonable). I do think Indiana teams need to be getting more love, especially TJ; they have a long history of nationals experience, placed 17th last year, and were pushed by Raymond Park to set a significant low in states score. They are likely under-hyped because of their lack of attendance at major invitationals, but they should be ranked more than they have been.

1. I just think it's hard to compare Kennedy to the others due to the fact that they don't compete with each other or similar teams.
2. Fair enough. They won't absolutely be in the top 10 but a range of the low top 10 seems to be most likely.
3. I guess I'm not that informed on Slauson. I wasn't really sure what information to use, though, because they don't go to many invitationals. I just based it on last years results which isn't too reliable. 17th just seemed too close to 20th for my taste (even though it's not? idk, they could get 17th definitely)
4. I absolutely agree with you. I have barely seen anyone put Indiana teams in the top 20, even though they should be comparable to Harlan Rowe (at least, how Harlan Rowe will do at nationals) especially since both teams got sub100 states scores.

[Unome]

I'd put Longfellow in the 10th-14th range tops. Their state score has historically correlated very well with their Nationals placement - in fact, that's why I originally ranked them top 10 back in 2015.

[TheCrazyChemist]

Feel free to rip apart these predictions:

1. Community
2. Kennedy
3. Solon
4. Beckendorff
5. Daniel Wright
6. Gelinas
7. Kraemer
8. Marie Murphy
9. Piedmont
10. Highlands
11. Springhouse
12. Longfellow
13. Tower Heights
14. Eagle Hill
15. Lakeshore
16. Hamilton
17. Slauson
18. Harlan Rowe
19. Ladue
20. Bedford

It's nice to see someone who thinks that Bedford can be in the top 20. I mean, I think that it's definitely a possibility. I have no idea what are the chances that it happens tho. But maybe this is just me, but I think that Bedford can beat Harlan Rowe, which I think means moving Harlan down. Bedford was barely shy of Harlan Rowe at Cornell, and I think they've gotten a lot better at a ton of events since then. Also combined with the fact that Harlan is a new team, I think that'll make it more likely that Harlan moves down a couple of places. Please correct me if you have an argument that says otherwise.

[builderguy135]

Feel free to rip apart these predictions:

1. Community
2. Kennedy
3. Solon
4. Beckendorff
5. Daniel Wright
6. Gelinas
7. Kraemer
8. Marie Murphy
9. Piedmont
10. Highlands
11. Springhouse
12. Longfellow
13. Tower Heights
14. Eagle Hill
15. Lakeshore
16. Hamilton
17. Slauson
18. Harlan Rowe
19. Ladue
20. Bedford

It's nice to see someone who thinks that Bedford can be in the top 20. I mean, I think that it's definitely a possibility. I have no idea what are the chances that it happens tho. But maybe this is just me, but I think that Bedford can beat Harlan Rowe, which I think means moving Harlan down. Bedford was barely shy of Harlan Rowe at Cornell, and I think they've gotten a lot better at a ton of events since then. Also combined with the fact that Harlan is a new team, I think that'll make it more likely that Harlan moves down a couple of places. Please correct me if you have an argument that says otherwise.

Harlan probably got better too.

[sciolyperson1]

Feel free to rip apart these predictions:

1. Community
2. Kennedy
3. Solon
4. Beckendorff
5. Daniel Wright
6. Gelinas
7. Kraemer
8. Marie Murphy
9. Piedmont
10. Highlands
11. Springhouse
12. Longfellow
13. Tower Heights
14. Eagle Hill
15. Lakeshore
16. Hamilton
17. Slauson
18. Harlan Rowe
19. Ladue
20. Bedford

It's nice to see someone who thinks that Bedford can be in the top 20. I mean, I think that it's definitely a possibility. I have no idea what are the chances that it happens tho. But maybe this is just me, but I think that Bedford can beat Harlan Rowe, which I think means moving Harlan down. Bedford was barely shy of Harlan Rowe at Cornell, and I think they've gotten a lot better at a ton of events since then. Also combined with the fact that Harlan is a new team, I think that'll make it more likely that Harlan moves down a couple of places. Please correct me if you have an argument that says otherwise.

As a general rule of thumb, multiplying your Cornell team placement by 2 will yield an approximate nats placement - so Bedford seems to be definitely hovering around the 20th mark.

[kate!]

Feel free to rip apart these predictions:

1. Community
2. Kennedy
3. Solon
4. Beckendorff
5. Daniel Wright
6. Gelinas
7. Kraemer
8. Marie Murphy
9. Piedmont
10. Highlands
11. Springhouse
12. Longfellow
13. Tower Heights
14. Eagle Hill
15. Lakeshore
16. Hamilton
17. Slauson
18. Harlan Rowe
19. Ladue
20. Bedford

It's nice to see someone who thinks that Bedford can be in the top 20. I mean, I think that it's definitely a possibility. I have no idea what are the chances that it happens tho. But maybe this is just me, but I think that Bedford can beat Harlan Rowe, which I think means moving Harlan down. Bedford was barely shy of Harlan Rowe at Cornell, and I think they've gotten a lot better at a ton of events since then. Also combined with the fact that Harlan is a new team, I think that'll make it more likely that Harlan moves down a couple of places. Please correct me if you have an argument that says otherwise.

As a general rule of thumb, multiplying your Cornell team placement by 2 will yield an approximate nats placement - so Bedford seems to be definitely hovering around the 20th mark.

That doesn't seem very accurate... Gelinas isn't getting 4th and there's no way Solon will get 6th.

[rabbitman]

It's nice to see someone who thinks that Bedford can be in the top 20. I mean, I think that it's definitely a possibility. I have no idea what are the chances that it happens tho. But maybe this is just me, but I think that Bedford can beat Harlan Rowe, which I think means moving Harlan down. Bedford was barely shy of Harlan Rowe at Cornell, and I think they've gotten a lot better at a ton of events since then. Also combined with the fact that Harlan is a new team, I think that'll make it more likely that Harlan moves down a couple of places. Please correct me if you have an argument that says otherwise.

As a general rule of thumb, multiplying your Cornell team placement by 2 will yield an approximate nats placement - so Bedford seems to be definitely hovering around the 20th mark.

That doesn't seem very accurate... Gelinas isn't getting 4th and there's no way Solon will get 6th.

its a reasonable approximation for teams outside of top 10 contention

[kate!]

As a general rule of thumb, multiplying your Cornell team placement by 2 will yield an approximate nats placement - so Bedford seems to be definitely hovering around the 20th mark.

That doesn't seem very accurate... Gelinas isn't getting 4th and there's no way Solon will get 6th.

its a reasonable approximation for teams outside of top 10 contention

Oh yeah, I didn't take the lower-placing teams into account. But also, Eagle Hill got 13th at Cornell. They're certainly not going to get 26th at nats. It seems accurate for other teams, though.

[IvanGe]

Feel free to rip apart these predictions:

1. Community
2. Kennedy
3. Solon
4. Beckendorff
5. Daniel Wright
6. Gelinas
7. Kraemer
8. Marie Murphy
9. Piedmont
10. Highlands
11. Springhouse
12. Longfellow
13. Tower Heights
14. Eagle Hill
15. Lakeshore
16. Hamilton
17. Slauson
18. Harlan Rowe
19. Ladue
20. Bedford

1. As much as I'd like them to, I'm not really sure if Community will win or not. I guess you can put them in 1st but personally I'm on the fence.
2. Kennedy is a strong team, we all know. However, there's simply no way to compare them to East Coast teams. They could be better, they could be worse. But I honestly think they're not going to beat Solon.
3. Solon should be top 2. Did you see their states score? Sure, they weren't as good in the beginning of the season, but they've improved, and their consistency is what's going to help them the most.
4. No. I mean, they're a very strong team, and their states score knocked everyone else out of the park, but I'm afraid something is going to happen like last year. I don't see them as 4th. I just think they're not as consistent as other top teams and they shouldn't be right behind the top 3. That being said, I don't know who should be in their place. Maybe you're right.
5. Fair enough. I don't know enough about Daniel Wright to accurately predict how they'll do, but 5th seems good. Weaker than past years, stronger than most teams.
6. I said this in another thread, and I'll say it again. Gelinas is being seriously overrated. Yes, they're going to be top 10, but I don't see that dramatic of an increase in their placement. Yes, their performance at Cornell was impressive and quite shocking. But was it an extremely close competition as well? Absolutely. Yes, their states score was admirable and could have been record-breaking were it not for an error in Roller Coaster, but it certainly wasn't that much lower than past years' scores. In general, states scores do not correlate to nats placements for Gelinas and I don't think it's evidence enough (combined with Cornell results and other invitationals) to put them this high up. I personally would put them 8th at the most.
7. This I absolutely agree with. Kraemer is a powerhouse team that works extremely hard and is super motivated and consistent, and I believe that is going to get them 7th or maybe even higher this year.
8. While I would disagree with this, my recent mentality for predictions has become "Well, who's going to beat them?". This is exactly the case for Marie Murphy. 8th seems too high for them, but the reality is that no other teams are really that much better than them.
9. Honestly, see above. Piedmont seems to be weaker this year, but not that much weaker.
10. Sorry Highlands, but I don't think you're going to get top 10. A lot has changed between this year and last year, and while they're certainly a powerful team, state results really aren't indicative of what'll happen at nats because Hawaii is... not one of the most competitive states. It's hard to compare Highlands to other teams because of A) how much every team has changed since invitationals and B) lack of East Coast invitationals. We'll see what happens, though. This isn't too far of a reach.
11. We all know Springhouse is weaker this year. But come on. They're not going to drop out of the top 10. Low 10s? Sure. But not below 10th. They're still a very competitive team, and while they have lost some of their strength, it's not that much of a dramatic decrease.
12. We haven't heard much about Longfellow this year. I'll base this on their state score- they only won by 22 points. They also seem relatively inconsistent for a relatively uncompetitive state. Though they have a history of doing well at nationals, I don't think they're going to get 12th, but they will stay in this range.
13. Sure, I agree with this. Tower Heights is a respectable team, and they're absolutely good enough to get 13th and maybe even higher. We'll see.
14. Nope. Sorry, Eagle Hill. Listen, I know it seemed like Eagle Hill dominated at states (behind Gelinas, of course) and showed off their admirable consistency, but the truth is, the top 5 teams were generally weaker this year. (I'm not speaking for Bay Academy, they have definitely come a long way and did really, really well this year, but the fact that they lost by ~50 points shows how relatively uncompetitive this year was compared to last year. It was still competitive, definitely, but not at the level it was for last year especially within the top 5. Goff and Murphy were absolutely weaker.) I still think Eagle Hill will place within this range, but at least 3 or 4 places lower.
15. Everyone is really underrating Lakeshore. I've said it before and I'll say it again. They deserve several places higher than 15th. Their history shows how strong of a team they can be, and the fact that they won states shows that they mean business. People think that just because they're not Meads Mill, they're not good. Absolutely not. I believe in Lakeshore and I know they deserve better than how people are predicting them.
16. I'm going to be honest here. I know literally nothing about Hamilton. I'm looking at the wiki now and their states score this year is very similar to their states score last year. 16th or 17th seems reasonable.
17. Nope. No way. Slauson is going to do better than this. Granted, they did get a way lower states score than last year, but similar to Lakeshore and other teams, states score does not correlate to nationals score. I think Slauson will get 15th or 16th because they seem to improve between states and nats at least based on last year.
18. Not sure. I'm really on the fence about this. I have a wider range of places in my head for Harlan Rowe because I'm unsure about how they're going to deal with nationals due to lack of experience. Yes, they're consistent. Yes, they got 9th at Cornell. Yes, their builds are good. But is that enough for a new team to nats? I honestly do not know. I would place them slightly lower.
19. Oh look. Yet another state in which states and nats results do not correlate. Sure, Ladue did well at states and they usually get somewhere around here. I can't speak for their consistency though. Haven't seen MO full results. This seems accurate enough, though?
20. Yes! Bedford! They did really well at Cornell and are absolutely improving from last year. Their states results were great and I definitely think they'll be able to get 20th. I will also vouch for them medaling in a few select events that I know they're strong in.
Overall- your predictions are mostly not what I would have put. Some are accurate, some aren't. You did win the prediction contest last year, but are you going to win again this year? We'll see...

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