Southern California 2016

[ceg7654]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this is what I'm pretty sure the results from Orange County Regionals were.

Div. B

1. Kraemer
2. Jeffrey Trail
3. Ladera Vista
4. Sierra Vista
5. Cerro Villa

Div. C

1. Troy
2. Northwood
3. University
4. Valencia
5. Irvine
6. Canyon
7. Woodbridge

[Unome]

LA Regionals happened
Here are the preliminary results:
Div B:
1st: Muscatel
2nd: Mesa Robles
3rd: Chaparral
4th: Hermosa Valley
5th: Suzanne
6th: South Pointe
7th: Madrona

Top 6 remained the same from last year, however the Muscatel-Mesa Robles gap narrowed to 29. Madrona replaced Horace Mann for 7th.

Div C:
1st: North Hollywood
2nd: Walnut
3rd: Rosemead
4th: Diamond Bar
5th: Arcadia
6th: Mark Keppel
7th: Temple City

North Hollywood basically ran away with it this year, with Arcadia falling pretty drastically to 5th (they've been consistently in the top 2 for a VERY long time.)

Next weekend will be OC regionals, here are my predictions:
Div B:
1st Kraemer
2nd: Jeffrey Trail
3rd: Sierra Vista
4th: Ladera Vista
5th Cerro Villa

First two will definitely make it, 3rd will almost certainly qualify, 4th and 5th are favored but are not shoe-ins, depends how they've been preparing since Mesa Robles. Dark horses are Rancho San Joaquin and (less likely) Pioneer. Any other teams placing would be a black swan.

Div C I can't make any predictions, but Troy will be first, Northwood will likely be second, with University and Valencia taking 3rd and 4th in some order. Remaining three spots to include Woodbridge, Aliso Niguel, Irvine, however there remains a distinct possibility of a dark horse stealing a spot (Villa Park? OCSA?). C is tougher to predict than B because there's teams go to invitationals; the only ones I know that go to more than one are Troy and Northwood.

Nice predictions

[PacificGoldenPlover]

LA Regionals happened
Here are the preliminary results:
Div B:
1st: Muscatel
2nd: Mesa Robles
3rd: Chaparral
4th: Hermosa Valley
5th: Suzanne
6th: South Pointe
7th: Madrona

Top 6 remained the same from last year, however the Muscatel-Mesa Robles gap narrowed to 29. Madrona replaced Horace Mann for 7th.

Div C:
1st: North Hollywood
2nd: Walnut
3rd: Rosemead
4th: Diamond Bar
5th: Arcadia
6th: Mark Keppel
7th: Temple City

North Hollywood basically ran away with it this year, with Arcadia falling pretty drastically to 5th (they've been consistently in the top 2 for a VERY long time.)

Next weekend will be OC regionals, here are my predictions:
Div B:
1st Kraemer
2nd: Jeffrey Trail
3rd: Sierra Vista
4th: Ladera Vista
5th Cerro Villa

First two will definitely make it, 3rd will almost certainly qualify, 4th and 5th are favored but are not shoe-ins, depends how they've been preparing since Mesa Robles. Dark horses are Rancho San Joaquin and (less likely) Pioneer. Any other teams placing would be a black swan.

Div C I can't make any predictions, but Troy will be first, Northwood will likely be second, with University and Valencia taking 3rd and 4th in some order. Remaining three spots to include Woodbridge, Aliso Niguel, Irvine, however there remains a distinct possibility of a dark horse stealing a spot (Villa Park? OCSA?). C is tougher to predict than B because there's teams go to invitationals; the only ones I know that go to more than one are Troy and Northwood.

Nice predictions

Thanks
Updated results with point totals:

B
1st Kraemer (51)
2nd Jeffrey Tail (91)
3rd: Ladera Vista (140)
4th: Sierra Vista (143)
5th: Cerro Villa(154)
Followed by Rancho San Joaquin at 177 and Fisler at 212. Unlike last year, I'm fairly sure the 23 point gap will likely remain.

C
1st: Troy (41)
2nd: Northwood (147)
3rd: University (164)
4th: Valencia (171)
5th: Canyon (177)
6th: Irvine (183)
7th: Woodbridge (187)
Followed by Beckman at 232, and OCHSA and CApistrano Valley tied at 270.

My B predictions were pretty good, while my C predictions... weren't so much.

[thecodergirl]

Based on what we've seen at these regionals, any guesses or predictions on how states will turn out?
Would there be any surprises, considering that most districts have spring break then or before, that would throw some data off?
And point-wise, how close are we talking? It's sure to be close this year for sure in Division B especially!
I think we can say it's going to be very interesting?

[sandvinsd]

Based on what we've seen at these regionals, any guesses or predictions on how states will turn out?
Would there be any surprises, considering that most districts have spring break then or before, that would throw some data off?
And point-wise, how close are we talking? It's sure to be close this year for sure in Division B especially!
I think we can say it's going to be very interesting?

Based on the Regional and invitational results for Division B, here are my thoughts on the state. There are four teams who can win it.

1. Kraemer will probably dethrone Muscatel - the question is will they win? (If not Kreamer, then Carmel Valley or Jeffrey Trail will do it this year). They have beaten Muscatel almost every time that they have met (Churchill, Ladera Vista, Musctel, Mesa Robles). The only exception which I am aware of was at Kraemer. In that one, Muscatel won, but the Kraemer teams finished 2nd 4th and 6th, so they are 45 students deep. They have been making the top team stronger since then by mixing and matching. That was demonstrated a week later by winning at Muscatel and two weeks later, although not a 1st, they beat Muscatel at Mesa Robles. Likely an 80% chance of them beating Muscatel on April 2nd. This state is stacked. Whichever team comes out of SoCal, it will be a top 10 national team with a realistic chance of bringing home a team trophy. Kraemer appears to be the team to beat. I expect either a 1st or 2nd by Kraemer. If they are beaten, it will be by a great performance by either Carmel Valley or Muscatel.

2. Muscatel - Still a top threat to win state again. Not as deep as Kraemer or Carmel Valley, but their 24 or so students are good, really good. They are experienced and well trained. They are consistent across all events, which will be an Achilles heel for one or more of the other three. They will be in a battle with Kraemer and Carmel Valley to win the state. Jeffrey Trail has a chance as well. Muscatel won 1 invite - Kraemer. They were beaten at Churchill by Kraemer. At Ladera Vista, they were beaten by Kraemer, Oak Valley, Jeffrey Trail and Chaparral.At Muscatel, they were tied by Jeffrey Trail and beaten by Kraemer. At Mesa, they were beaten by all of the other three and Churchill, finishing 5th. However, Muscatel did look good at their last tune-up in Wicklund, placing second to Kennedy but beating Churchill with Mesa Robles 4th. They should finish anywhere from 1st to 4th.

3. Carmel Valley has shown the ability to win, beating them all, including Churchill at Mesa Robles. They are deep - 75 students deep. Two of their teams placed at invitationals and another 3 came within a whisker of getting team trophies so, if they could send five teams to state, all would be competitive for a team trophy. 50/50 shot at beating Muscatel this year. The question is, could they beat Muscatel and still not win state because of Kraemer? That would make 8 years finishing 2nd without a victory. They should finish anywhere between 1st and 4th.

4. Jeffrey Trail - Young program which is rapidly becoming a power. I see them with a 25% chance of beating Muscatel, but lower likelihood to win the state. They have three other good teams in front of them and at least one of those should beat them at state. They were second to Kraemer in the regional and have generally placed within these top four schools at the invites, but never with a win. They finished second many times to the other three schools in the invites. I see them as high as 2nd or as low as 4th. But do they finally put it all together and win?

Others in the hunt for trophies...
Oak Valley, Mesa Robles, Chaparral, Dana, Mesa Verde, Black Mountain

The surprise would be if one of those BIG 4 does NOT win the state OR if one of them falls out of the top 4.

As for points, you will not see a score below 80. Maybe one in the 90's if they just "kick it." Too many good teams to get a real low score this year. If a team breaks 100, then they will most likely win. I expect the scores to be between 100 and 140 for the top four teams.

[sandvinsd]

Based on what we've seen at these regionals, any guesses or predictions on how states will turn out?
Would there be any surprises, considering that most districts have spring break then or before, that would throw some data off?
And point-wise, how close are we talking? It's sure to be close this year for sure in Division B especially!
I think we can say it's going to be very interesting?

Division C

Troy, Troy and Troy.

No other school will be close. North Hollywood is the prediction for a distant second followed by any one of about six or eight schools, none of them who have a chance for anything higher than a second place trophy.

[chemmybear]

Arcadia's been having a rough year, so that might be why they've sunk in the rankings...

Surprised Woodbridge didn't make it into Top 6 though, if they're as good at Scioly as they are at Scibowl.

[sandvinsd]

Has been posted for both Division B and Division C:

http://socalscioly.org/downloads/SoCal% ... umbers.pdf

Good luck to the 60 teams participating two weeks from Saturday!

[PacificGoldenPlover]

Anyone up for a states meetup?

[Entomology]

Anyone up for a states meetup?

That would be pretty cool! I will be in the bridge room for the morning.