Now that Regionals are over, it's time for some spicy State predicts!
1-3: Naperville North, Stevenson, and New Trier (in no particular order)
I'm withholding my opinion on the order of these for the moment cuz reasons (mainly to build suspense)
4: Nequa Valley
After a somewhat off year in 2018, which seems to have been mainly due to build bombs, Nequa Valley has come back very strong and looks like the best contender for 4th place. Nequa saw a series of impressive invitational results throughout the season and had a fierce presence at Regionals.
5: Naperville Central
While not as strong as their northern counterparts this year, Naperville Central edged out Hinsdale Central at Regionals, with a larger gap when including JV scores. This signifies to me that there may be more separation when they go head to head again at State.
6: Hinsdale Central
I feel like Hinsdale Central has been slightly underrated so far and has consistently beaten many other strong IL teams this year. I could definitely see them taking 5th if they really work at it in the next couple weeks. However, unless they have a couple unusual bombs, I do not see a situation in which they place lower than 6th.
7-9: Lyons Township, Grayslake North, and Crystal Lake Central (also in no particular order)
Oof sorry about this one Chi, but I think you might be a little too optimistic These three were the hardest to judge. Grayslake North has consistently beaten CLC, but definitely within a reasonable margin that could be closed by State. While Lyons Township probably has the lowest record at invitationals of the three, a strong Regionals performance leads me to believe they have improved greatly within the last couple months. Lyons also seems to have mitigated most of the bombs that occurred at Huntley, which would have placed them quite a bit higher. I would be very surprised if any of these teams get kicked out of the top 10.
10: U of C Lab Schools
I feel a little bit bad about ranking them so low, but I just couldn't rank any of the other teams any lower. U of C Lab is not to be underestimated and I may be making that mistake here. They definitely have the results to justify placing them as high as 7th, and there is a good chance they will come out on top of any of the three schools above. I think the chance of them falling out of the top 10 is very low.
11-15: Waubonsie Valley, IMSA, Niles West, Glenbrook South, Metea Valley
I haven't spent as much time looking at these schools but this is the current order I would expect to see them place. There is definitely a lot more wiggle room here and Libertyville, Niles North, or Loyola could easily squeeze in.
And there you have it! Please challenge anything here you feel is out of place and good luck to every team at State!
Those are very good predictions Selundar - mine aren't that different.
I’d like to thank everyone for waiting for predictions until all regionals were finished. It's now time for me to share my State Predictions. Keep in mind that this is my opinion. I did my best to rule out any biases. Most of my predictions are shaped by Regionals performances. I did slightly account for very competitive invites such as Palatine, Conant, Huntley, and Loyola, as they are kind of pseudo-State competitions in themselves. Second, keep in mind that I'm sure some aspects of my predictions will be WAY OFF once actual results of the tournament are released. It happens every year. Whatever. Also, for those of you who haven't picked up on this yet, I'll tell you right now that this post is very long. Take that as a warning, or rather useful information. Kudos to anyone who actually reads the entire thing.
Anyway, here's my broad predictions:
1-3: Stevenson, New Trier, Naperville North - (In that Order) I assume this isn’t that unexpected, as all of these teams clocked in unbelievably impressive Regionals scores. I do think we have to keep in mind that New Trier and Stevenson have had exceptional performances in nationwide invitationals outside of Illinois, and are likely top contenders amongst Nationals Teams in the moment. That is why I'm giving the slight edge to those two, but I am seriously looking for an upset. (Stevenson is 1st for me bc they did beat New Trier at Loyola, which is the only reference I really have for how well the two perform against each other)
4: Naperville Central - What can I say, Naperville Central has had a great recovery from what was already an impressive State performance last year. Their Palatine and U of C score especially makes me think that they could place this high
5: Hinsdale Central - This team was once the future upset for a Nationals Bid not too long ago. While they don’t seem to have that same intensity, I think far too many people aren't actually appreciating just how great they’ve done this season, and they will ultimately do very well at State.
6-7: Neuqua Valley & Lyons Township - An essential tie at the Neuqua Valley Regional, I can see either of these two teams pulling out ahead of the other, even cracking top 5. In truth, they’re both very good teams. Neuqua has been pretty pigeon consistent all year, and Lyons seems to be building momentum over the course of the season. Again, not as good as their hay-day (2014-2016), but we’re clearly in a new era of ISO, so these teams should be recognized for their great performances. What I will say is that since 2016, Lyons has placed ahead of the one team that beat them at Regionals that year. It'll be really cool if that happens for the 4th year in a row. *I do agree with Selundar that Neuqua has the ability to place 4th overall. We'll see what happens.
8: Grayslake North - The team that “supposedly” came out of nowhere last year—if you competed at Loyola last year, then you knew that this team was going places (I think Lake County scores from last year being silent didn’t help them either). I do think that Grayslake North is still pretty fantastic this year, but they’re slipping in my rankings because so many other teams are getting better. Their regional results were also a bit underwhelming, not getting a sub-100 score, so that leads me to put them here. However, I will keep an eye out on them.
9-11: University of Chicago Lab, Crystal Lake Central, IMSA - I think this one will be the closest. All of these teams have been pretty consistent across the board at invites, however their Regional scores didn’t seem to be as strong as their invite scores. It is clear that these teams have a pretty good thing going for them. Crystal Lake always seems to have a good set of events that perform very well, so I’d give them the edge in this group. Yet, U of C was able to break 100 at Harper while CLC wasn't, so that's got to say something (I am aware that there are many factors that go into that, especially at a regional that big. It's an important observation nonetheless). IMSA can easily break into the Top 10 based off of this year's scores. However it's very difficult to predict how well this team will do, as it is basically every year. It's not because they're bad, it's just that their rankings at state from 2013 (the first year I observed scores) to now have been a bit all over the place and don't really follow a pattern. Again, I will not be surprised if they are able to crack Top 10. I think it’ll ultimately come down to whether or not it’s any of these teams on or off days.
12-15: Niles West & Glenbrook South, Waubonsie Valley & Metea Valley - These four teams are grouped this way because they practically tied the other team at their Regionals. I do feel out of the existing pool of teams left, these teams have had very good performances in the past four years or so and have consistently placed in this area (the exception being Waubonsie, who actually spent time in the top 5. *Niles West and Metea Valley did spend a year or two in the top 10 about 3 years ago. I do think it's a bit out of reach this year). Based on invitational scores and relative teams that competed alongside them at each regional, I honestly think that these four teams are pretty neck and neck. Once again, it’ll likely come down to whether or not it’s an on or off day for these teams. However, as mentioned with Lyons Township, Waubonsie Valley and Niles West seem to have an upward momentum that I think pushes them just past the other two.
16. Libertyville - Libertyville actually put in a very strong Regional score, and the margins between them and other schools there such as Grayslake and Crystal Lake weren’t as small as I thought they’d be. If that says anything, it’s that Libertyville may be the silent heavyweight outside of the top 10.
Other Fantastic teams to look out for:
Harlem - Rockford Valley Champs, they’ve actually pulled through into the Top 20 two years in a row now, so I wouldn’t count them out.
Belvidere North - The other formidable Rockford team, they’re really putting together an impressive run this year.
Loyola Academy & Niles North - Again, essentially a tie at Oakton (wow, a lot of really close scores this year, huh), both teams saw themselves in the top 20 last year, may be slightly weaker but still put in solid performances. It's going to come down to which team of the two has more events that don't perform well.
Whitney Young & Walter Payton - Another very close call, this time from the CPS Regional. Whitney Young pulled ahead, but Walter Payton had such an impressive early season that I think they should be on everyone’s radar.
Conant - A team that has really grown a very solid foundation over the past few years. This may be their time to show that they’re not only here to stay, but are formidable as well.
1st Place Division A Team ***University Lab - Gotta show some love to Southern Illinois. It’s very hard to know where these guys will place given that most of the strongest competitors in the State are very localized around the Chicago suburbs, but they keep getting stronger every year. Every year there is at least one school that breaks into the Top 20 from Division A. I think University Lab has a good chance of being that school (regardless of which division they actual end up being in). If not them, I'd put money on Barrington, Hersey, Northside, or Mahomet Seymour *you heard it here first! Now I have no idea who's in A or AA, but I have a feeling if these team are in A, they will do well.
So here are my official predictions:
1. Stevenson | 2. New Trier | 3. Naperville North | 4. Naperville Central | 5. Hinsdale Central | 6. Neuqua Valley | 7. Lyons Township | 8. Grayslake North | 9. U of C Lab | 10. Crystal Lake Central
Congrats if you're on a team that made my top 10, I guess that must say something, right? (Idk does it? w/e) I do think 4-6 is interchangeable, along with 8-10, and 8-11 if IMSA can pull through.
So yea, that’s my list. A couple comments I’d like to make. If you look at last year’s state scores, you’ll see that there was only a roughly 100 point gap that spanned from 5th place all the way to 13th place. Outside of the top 4, nearly every team from 5th place to 15th got 4 or 5 medals (a couple with 3, which is still good). What this shows is that we really do have a super competitive State, and just paying attention to the top 10 doesn’t show you just how many great teams we have. The margins are close in this State, so if you don’t like my rankings, prove me wrong! They can easily be proven wrong. I think the idea that the top 20, top 10, pigeon even the top 5 at state, looks so vastly different over the past four or five years just goes to show that any team can ultimately become heavy hitters.
Good luck to everyone at State!
Last edited by chrroh on March 28th, 2019, 12:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
2014 - 2018 Science Olympiad Alumni - Park View '14 | Niles West '18
Illinois State 2018 - 2nd Dynamic Planet | 3rd Experimental Design
K2005 wrote:Anyone have any Div. B predictions to make?
1. Daniel Wright JHS
2. Marie Murphy MS
3. Twin Groves MS
4. Science & Arts Academy
5. South MS
"Blessed are you when people insult you and persecute you, and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of Me. Rejoice and be glad, for your reward in heaven is great; for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you." Matthew 5:11-12
K2005 wrote:Anyone have any Div. B predictions to make?
Yes I have some predictions for Division B. I'll go through the same process I used for Division C.
Now Division B in my opinion is a lot harder to predict than Division C. Many times, State performances don't necessarily align with Regional performances. And for this year in particular, there are a lot of good Division B teams. So this was not an easy task. What I prioritized the most was scores from Regionals. After that, I took into account how teams that competed at different Regionals performed when competing against each other at certain Invitationals. I of course checked to see if there were any events that they didn't compete in at Invites or improved vastly in since those certain Invites. Also this goes without saying, but this post is very long. Now that we've got that out of the way, I'll be the first to say that if someone wants to make a google survey and try to host a competition for who can most-accurately predict state (like we did last year), that would be great because I at least thought that was pretty fun. Also I've been posting a lot this season, a bit too much actually, so this is probably my last post until the actual day of the tournament.
1: Daniel Wright - It's really hard to see this not happening. I mean, c'mon. Do I really have to explain?
2: Marie Murphy - This team is clearly more focused than ever on qualifying for Nationals, and I think most of us agree that that will happen. Their Regional score speaks for itself. Their Invite score speaks for itself. So I'm not sure what else there is to say. I actually think they have a shot of their score being pretty close to Daniel Wright's score. Better than Daniel Wright's score? Maybe. Nevertheless, they're going to do awesome at state. And, they seem to have a good Roller Coaster. Many of you who were active on last year's forums probably know what that indicates for them.
3: Woodland - That's right everyone, I'm calling it. I have never seen a team get this good this quick. I mean talk about riding upward momentum from the previous season. Keep in mind, they were a Division A school last year. Now, they have a shot at getting 3rd overall! That's impressive beyond words. I placed them this high because they actually got a lower score against Daniel Wright than SAA and Twin Groves did against each other. And keep in mind this was also against Grayslake, Woodlawn, and Wilmette/Highcrest. So yea, I think they're getting 3rd at state if they perform as well as they did at Lake County. It is possible that both schools from Harper can place above them, but I'm going to stand my ground for now.
4-5: Twin Groves and Science & Arts Academy - I was pleasenty surprised that SAA went to nationals last year. I think that's a bit of a stretch this year. But guys, they're still an amazing team. Twin Groves has also built a great foundation in a short span of time. This was basically a tie at Harper, which is why they're grouped this way. I think Twin Groves may actually beat SAA becaue they actually placed first at Harper when both Varsity and JV were grouped together, which gives a better view as too how strong their strong events are, and also how weak their weak events are. It'll come down to how much either team wants to improve from Harper.
6-10
Grayslake, Wilmette/Highcrest, & Woodlawn - This was nearly a three way tie at Lake County. It really depends on whether or not these teams match their effort and performce from Lake County at State. I think they will. This also depends on whether these teams stay this good or improve. That's of course hard to call.
Kennedy - This team was able to easily break 100 against Marie Murphy, so that alone in my opinion shows some potential. Now I first got involved in SciO in 2013 (Started competing in 2014), and they have been in the Top 10 ever since then. So they have a very strong record. And from what I can recall, they tend to improve from Regionals to State. They have a history of beating teams at state that they lost to at Regionals. So yea, there's not much going against them.
South - This team was an absolute power house when I was in middle school, and honestly they still are. Sure, they're not quite as strong as they were back then. But similar to what I said about SAA, they are still a fantastic team. I think their Invitational and Regional scores speak for themselves. They also tend to medal in a lot of events at state. Now last year the same happened but they ended up only getting 10th because there were a couple of flops and fewer "solid performing event" than in previous years. But there's also not much going against them, let's be honest.
Latin - If there's one team that I think can push at team listed above out of the Top 10, I think it's this one. This team had a great run at their Regional. They broke 100 against three teams I placed in the Top 10. My only concern is that the gap between them and South at Harper is noticeable. But I won't be surprised if they get Top 10.
Whitney Young- I think this is my second most-likely contender for a team that has the ability to kick one of my teams out of the Top 10. I think it's more possible than many people here may think. The best indicator of this is their performance at University of Chicago. They were awesome there! and they weren't that far away fro Marie Murphy's JV team. And they did get first at CPS by a noticeable margin. Now what does that say? Well I'm not sure. Certainly I predicted they'd get first. It depends on how good Volta and Lane Tech Academic Center are. If they're also Top 20 material, then a score of 75 is actually pretty good. Again, it's a bit hard to tell. .
Butler - I was a bit surprised with Butler's performance at DuPage, I was expecting a score that was a bit lower. They performed well at the University of Chicago Division B Invite, yet they had a higher score than I thought at that tournament as well. And from what I can recall, this team's State performance usually is about the same as their Regional performance. I'm not going to rule them out, as they were in the Top 10 in both 2017 and 2018, and they were also a couple point away from Top 10 in 2016. So again, good track record. I expect medals at State for this team. I'm just not quite sure if this year is their year.
University of Chicago Lab - This team did perform similarly at this year's COD Regional compared to their performance last year. I did remember them improving greatly from Regionals to State, and they ended up placing 11th! So if they match that, I think they have a possibility of getting 11th again. Top 10? I'm not quite sure. Again, I want to be surprised. There's a good chance they'll surprise me regardless of whether they break Top 10.
15-16:
Hawthorn North - I may be underestimating this team by placing them this low. They did very well at their Regional, I mean they broke 100. I'm not sure what that says when you take into account the teams they were up against. Those teams aren't bad by any stretch of the imagination, but they're not Top 10 worthy this year. This team may actually place a lot higher than where I'm placing them, we'll see. Based off of last year's finish, I think they're going to place in this range. And for those of you who may not know this, 15-16th is still good in grand scheme of things.
North Park - I'm not quite sure how well this team will do. This team is a lot like IMSA if you ask me, where how well they do at state isn't necessarily easy to predict. This is because their past state results have been a bit all over the place. I was surprised they couldn't even crack Top 20 last season. Now I think they will be able to do that this season. But to what degree? That's tough to judge. I'm not quite sure what their 1st at Oakton says about their state performance this year. Don't get me wrong, it says that they're a good team. But with so few teams at Oakton this year (in both Divisions), it's hard to see just how good they are. And, their score was a bit higher than I thought it would be. I will say that both Division B and C Oakton had teams of similar performance competing against each other, so maybe that's why their score may have been a bit high. I will say that they did great at University of Chicago. So I think they will be in the Top 20, and I think they have a shot of being in the 11-14 range. I'm not going to rule out any outcome. They may place higher or lower than 14-15th. We'll see what happens.
Other Fantastic teams to look out for:
Quest - I believe this is their first year going to State, nice job! It's up to them how well they want to perform their first year. They had a good Invitational season, and a good run at Neuqua. I'm going to argue that hey have the ability to crack into the 11-14 range, I think it's possible.
Thomas - A bit surprised this team got 4th at Neuqua Valley, I thought they'd get 1st based off of last season. However, I think it's safe to say that this team will place in the Top 20.
Park View - I think they have improved from last year. The only question is how much?. I know I keep saying this, but we'll see what happens. I think they will certainly place in this range.
North Shore Country Day - I was also a bit surprised with their Regional Score. What's going for them is that they tend to have a couple events that medal at state (especially their building events in the past). So that may raise their overall score.
Volta & Lane Tech Academic Center - Both teams are noticeably better this year. I'm not sure if they'll be in Division A or AA, but I think they'll do well regardless of which division they're in.
1st Place Division A - If Volta and Lane Tech are in A, then one of them will take this spot. But again, every year there's at least one Division A team that places Top 20. So whichever team that is, I predict they'll place in this region.
So here are my official predictions:
1. Daniel Wright | 2. Marie Murphy | 3. Woodland | 4. Science & Arts Academy | 5. Twin Groves | 6. South | 7. Grayslake | 8. Woodlawn | 9. Wilmette/Highcrst | 10. Kennedy
I'll say the same thing I said about Division C, Congrats if you're on a team that made my top 10. That must say something, right? I do think 4-5 is interchangeable, along with 6-10, and I do think either Whitney Young or Latin has a shot at making it, but I find it hard to see any of these teams not making it.
So there you! Good luck to everyone at State! And of course, I urge anyone who disagrees with my predictions to challenge them. Also, prove me wrong if you're on a team (in either division) that I underestimated during my predictions (for lack of a better term).
2014 - 2018 Science Olympiad Alumni - Park View '14 | Niles West '18
Illinois State 2018 - 2nd Dynamic Planet | 3rd Experimental Design
beaker6 wrote:Anyone know when Division A/AA will be posted?
No, but I would just base it off of last years list as I don't think much will change.
A Science Olympian from 2015 - 2019 CLCSO Alumni Medal Count:30
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"A true Science Olympian embraces a life without Science Olympiad by becoming a part of Science Olympiad itself"- Me
TheChiScientist wrote:
No, but I would just base it off of last years list as I don't think much will change.
Probably true. Judging from earlier posts, beaker6 is most concerned about B division. I think new entrant Quest is going in at AA - they finished 3rd at Neuqua, looked almost identical to the second place team, and finished above other teams that are usually AA. Of last year's AA teams, Lisle, Our Lady of Perpetual Help, Glencoe, Bryan, and Our Lady of Mount Carmel didn't qualify this year.
Replacing them in AA will be Woodland, Quest, and presumably three other schools. Volta, maybe. Frederick, maybe. Hannah Beardsley, maybe. or possibly Rockford Christian. I don't think there's much data available to sort between these schools.
(mainly to build suspense)
