Pennsylvania 2014

[VikP]

Hello all, I am a member from the Springhouse Team from Central East region. We are exhilarated we beat the top teams in our region and got first yesterday! See you all in states!

[EastStroudsburg13]

Here's my top 10 for B (Still need to figure stuff out for CE before starting C):

1. Shady Side: I fully expect them to dominate. They are the most battle tested, having competed against several national contenders at invitationals, and they have the best pedigree, as they are trying for their third straight first place finish. They are the one team in PA that looks like a major contender at nationals.
2. Bala Cynwyd: They're the favorite for 2nd, in my mind. They won SE pretty handily, and they have a history of making nationals that only recently stopped. This looks like a prime year for them to get back.
3. Springhouse: Here is my somewhat controversial pick. I was originally going to go with Strath here, but then Springhouse thoroughly dominated CE, even when considering only 10 teams were there. CE is a strong region, and if it was larger it may have an argument for toughest region in the state. Springhouse looks like they have completed an extreme improvement, and with a wide-open states this year, I'm predicting them to take 3rd.
4. Strath Haven: my Excel document that I use actually has them 6th, but their pedigree is so strong I couldn't put them below 4th. But the fact is that they appear to have lost quite a bit to graduation, and it's just been a tough year. I don't think they have enough to make nationals, but they should perform admirably all the same.
5. Abington Heights: You might think some of these rankings are NE bias, but in the past NE has done very well at states, and they may have the strongest argument for the strongest region in the state for B. Abington Heights has been pretty consistent the past couple years, and with a wider open field this year, they could move up a couple spots.
6. Wyoming Area: I expect them to be very close to 5th and 6th. The only reason I have them lower than Abington Heights is that Abington Heights has in general done better than Wyoming Area in the past, but Wyoming Area should also do very well.
7. Welsh Valley: My formula actually has them outside the top 10, but I put them in. They're just too consistent for me to put them anywhere lower. However, the teams below all are capable of beating them.
8. Park Forest: They were only 9 points behind Wyoming Area and 3 points behind Abington Heights at regionals, and they're a top 10 regular, so I don't see that changing this year.
9. Hershey: Hershey was the clear-cut top team at Central this year, and they've been in the top 10 in the past. I think at least one Central team will be in the top 10, and Allen is having kind of a down year, so Hershey's here.
10. Bedford: Quaker Valley placed higher last year, but I see Bedford placing slightly better, similar to regionals when 5 points separated them.

Honorable mention: Allen, Quaker Valley

[ckssv07]

Here's my top 10 for B (Still need to figure stuff out for CE before starting C):

1. Shady Side: I fully expect them to dominate. They are the most battle tested, having competed against several national contenders at invitationals, and they have the best pedigree, as they are trying for their third straight first place finish. They are the one team in PA that looks like a major contender at nationals.
2. Bala Cynwyd: They're the favorite for 2nd, in my mind. They won SE pretty handily, and they have a history of making nationals that only recently stopped. This looks like a prime year for them to get back.
3. Springhouse: Here is my somewhat controversial pick. I was originally going to go with Strath here, but then Springhouse thoroughly dominated CE, even when considering only 10 teams were there. CE is a strong region, and if it was larger it may have an argument for toughest region in the state. Springhouse looks like they have completed an extreme improvement, and with a wide-open states this year, I'm predicting them to take 3rd.
4. Strath Haven: my Excel document that I use actually has them 6th, but their pedigree is so strong I couldn't put them below 4th. But the fact is that they appear to have lost quite a bit to graduation, and it's just been a tough year. I don't think they have enough to make nationals, but they should perform admirably all the same.
5. Abington Heights: You might think some of these rankings are NE bias, but in the past NE has done very well at states, and they may have the strongest argument for the strongest region in the state for B. Abington Heights has been pretty consistent the past couple years, and with a wider open field this year, they could move up a couple spots.
6. Wyoming Area: I expect them to be very close to 5th and 6th. The only reason I have them lower than Abington Heights is that Abington Heights has in general done better than Wyoming Area in the past, but Wyoming Area should also do very well.
7. Welsh Valley: My formula actually has them outside the top 10, but I put them in. They're just too consistent for me to put them anywhere lower. However, the teams below all are capable of beating them.
8. Park Forest: They were only 9 points behind Wyoming Area and 3 points behind Abington Heights at regionals, and they're a top 10 regular, so I don't see that changing this year.
9. Hershey: Hershey was the clear-cut top team at Central this year, and they've been in the top 10 in the past. I think at least one Central team will be in the top 10, and Allen is having kind of a down year, so Hershey's here.
10. Bedford: Quaker Valley placed higher last year, but I see Bedford placing slightly better, similar to regionals when 5 points separated them.

Honorable mention: Allen, Quaker Valley

Purely for curiosity, what does said excel sheet use for it's determining factors?

[EastStroudsburg13]

The basic factors it uses are score at regionals, size of region, average score of teams from that region at states last year, last year's place at states, the place at states two years ago, the change between the two, and the number of tournaments attended in the past two years. It's not perfect, but it usually guesses B teams on an average of 4 places away from their actual place, and C teams an average of 3 places away. Which in my mind is pretty alright for 36 teams!

[ckssv07]

The basic factors it uses are score at regionals, size of region, average score of teams from that region at states last year, last year's place at states, the place at states two years ago, the change between the two, and the number of tournaments attended in the past two years. It's not perfect, but it usually guesses B teams on an average of 4 places away from their actual place, and C teams an average of 3 places away. Which in my mind is pretty alright for 36 teams!

I would suggest to input the strength of attended competitions, but wouldn't that only be different for my team, I believe everyone on that side goes to the same competitions.

[EastStroudsburg13]

I may input that sometime when I have free time and see if it improves scores at all. I'm not sure if it would change much, since the best teams generally go to better competitions, but it might help for teams that come out of nowhere.

[solakmagic]

Any news on the CE team yet??!

[EastStroudsburg13]

Any news on the CE team yet??!

I don't think so. Does anyone know anyone from Perkiomen Valley or Allentown Central Catholic?

[rockhound]

Any news on the CE team yet??!

I don't think so. Does anyone know anyone from Perkiomen Valley or Allentown Central Catholic?

I would bet it was ACC since we never see them get an envelope but we see Perkiomen Valley get one.

[torqueburner]

Any news on the CE team yet??!

I don't think so. Does anyone know anyone from Perkiomen Valley or Allentown Central Catholic?

Confirmed by their coach, ACC has a schedule conflict and will not attend.