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Do you guys think Daniel Wright will win for the third consecutive year? If not, then who do think will win? If I had to predict, I would say Solon, but idrk.

sciolyperson1 wrote:Do you guys think Daniel Wright will win for the third consecutive year? If not, then who do think will win? If I had to predict, I would say Solon, but idrk.

They didn't seem as strong at states this year... yeah I'm predicting Solon as well.

pb5754[] wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote:Do you guys think Daniel Wright will win for the third consecutive year? If not, then who do think will win? If I had to predict, I would say Solon, but idrk.

They didn't seem as strong at states this year... yeah I'm predicting Solon as well.

What about Beckendorff? Maybe 2/3?

sciolyperson1 wrote:

pb5754[] wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote:Do you guys think Daniel Wright will win for the third consecutive year? If not, then who do think will win? If I had to predict, I would say Solon, but idrk.

They didn't seem as strong at states this year... yeah I'm predicting Solon as well.

What about Beckendorff? Maybe 2/3?

Yes. Definitely. I would put Solon first and Beckendorff second.

What about my school?!!! Just kidding, we placed 56th last year...

Here's the latest edition of my computer's ranking of all 60 teams! There's a limit to its effectiveness, of course, as there are a variety of factors that affect performance the day of. But this is mainly for fun and discussion, so enjoy!
In addition, if you're not happy with where your team (or your state's team) is listed, it might be because I don't have close enough data! Here is the data I am missing:

Questions:

• Why is SAA so high? 10th is kind of pushing it...
• Why is Pembroke so high? The last time they went to nationals, they got 27th IIRC, why would they improve after barely winning states (sorry if I sound salty it's bc I am)
• Why is River City so low? They did win states, but they are a 1st time team, but I think 40th is a little too low, maybe high 20s and low 30s

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Here's the latest edition of my computer's ranking of all 60 teams! There's a limit to its effectiveness, of course, as there are a variety of factors that affect performance the day of. But this is mainly for fun and discussion, so enjoy!

Click for ranking (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*]Daniel Wright
[*]Solon
[*]Beckendorff
[*]Meads Mill
[*]Kennedy
[*]Piedmont
[*]Longfellow
[*]Springhouse
[*]Paul J. Gelinas
[*]Science and Arts Academy
[*]Community
[*]Hamilton
[*]Slauson
[*]Tower Heights
[*]Shady Side Academy
[*]Dodgen
[*]Jeffrey Trail
[*]Howard L. Goff
[*]Chippewa
[*]Thomas Jefferson
[*]Pembroke Hill
[*]Highlands
[*]Preston
[*]A.W. Coolidge
[*]Fred J. Carnage
[*]Fulton Science Academy
[*]Kealing
[*]Auburn
[*]Ames
[*]North Bethesda
[*]H.B. duPont
[*]Archimedean Middle
[*]Meyzeek
[*]Cedar Springs Homeschool
[*]Evergreen
[*]Bellevue Mission
[*]Pleasant Ridge
[*]Bedford
[*]Casady
[*]River City Science Academy
[*]Fairfield
[*]Stoller
[*]Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
[*]Wachter
[*]Hyde Park
[*]Clinton
[*]Treasure Valley Home School
[*]Esperero Canyon
[*]C.R. Anderson
[*]Yankton
[*]St. John Berchmans
[*]Gallagher
[*]Teeland
[*]Germantown
[*]LISA Academy West
[*]Medomak
[*]Riverton
[*]Huntington
[*]Walpole
[*]BASIS Charter[/list]

In addition, if you're not happy with where your team (or your state's team) is listed, it might be because I don't have close enough data! Here is the data I am missing:

States Score Only (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list][*]Arizona
[*]Arkansas
[*]Iowa
[*]Maryland
[*]Massachusetts
[*]South Dakota[/list]

State Tournament Size and Score (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list][*]Alaska
[*]District of Columbia
[*]Hawaii
[*]Maine
[*]Minnesota
[*]Nevada
[*]Oklahoma
[*]Oregon
[*]West Virginia
[*]Wyoming[/list]

Piedmont is always too high on predictions.

dxu46 wrote:Questions:

• Why is SAA so high? 10th is kind of pushing it...
• Why is Pembroke so high? The last time they went to nationals, they got 27th IIRC, why would they improve after barely winning states (sorry if I sound salty it's bc I am)
• Why is River City so low? They did win states, but they are a 1st time team, but I think 40th is a little too low, maybe high 20s and low 30s

• I personally agree 10th is high. They're definitely closer to 11th than 9th in the rankings, so I would likely put them 12th or 13th in my personal rankings. But their state score is quite impressive, and the history of Illinois helps SAA in this regard.
• The tier of teams in the 21-30 range is pretty wide open, and the algorithm does not consider the margin of victory, and only the point total, which in this case is 72 (adjusted to fit 23 events) in a tournament of 31 teams. That's pretty impressive, and while 21st may be a bit high, the uper half of the 20s is not a huge stretch.
• This is where past history comes into play. While River City won, their score itself was not necessarily one of the stronger finishes. Add in the fact that historically, Florida B teams have hovered around the 40s anyway, and 40th seems pretty reasonable to me for a first-time team from the state.

sciolyperson1 wrote: Piedmont is always too high on predictions.

Except last year when my algorithm had them 7th.

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote: Piedmont is always too high on predictions.

Except last year when my algorithm had them 7th.

This is really interesting. I can't think of anything that would warrant your program ranking them so highly, especially after they did so poorly at state.

Reminds me - does your formula take into account the number of gold medals at state?