Re: Georgia 2017
Posted: March 17th, 2017, 4:28 pm
Hmm, forgot edits aren't working. Here are my predictions:
1. Dodgen – Despite losing to FSA at regionals, they’ve led the rest of the teams by quite a bit throughout the invitational season, and have the history to keep it up. However, it’s entirely plausible for the top three to finish in any order.
2. Fulton Science Academy – They were behind Vickery Creek rather consistently at invitationals, but seem to have stepped it up after Wright State, beating Dodgen on a tiebreaker at regionals, so they should have a good shot at qualifying again (which, despite six previous qualifications, would make this the longest qualifying streak in their history).
3. Vickery Creek – Although they’ve been very strong this year, the Nationals barrier is hard to break; they were right behind FSA all of last year, but ended up losing to them by over 50 points at state. However, they’ve been third place for the last three years and are probably hungry for a chance at nationals. Should be closer than last year.
4. Oconee County – although they don’t go to any invitationals, they did very well at regionals, finishing in the top three in 19 events against Vickery Creek. They should have a good chance at matching last year’s 4th place finish.
5. South Forsyth – I seem to be in disagreement with many others on this one. With strong finishes at invitationals throughout the year, this is the only team that’s come close to beating any of the Southeast powerhouses’ B teams. They took first and second at regionals while split, and have led the other contenders on this list during the season, so I think they’re the most likely team to take the final plaque.
6. Crews – Although they weren’t as visible as South Forsyth, Crews finished in third at regionals with a good score of 138, around 40 points better than last year (when they finished 7th at state). Although they didn’t beat either FSA or Dodgen’s B teams, consider that in 2014 Eagles Home Educators nearly lost to FSA’s C team at regionals (they won on a tie), and still finished 7th at state.
7. River Trail – River Trail seems to have recovered from last year’s fall, finishing first at regionals again, with their B team beating their A team in several events. While they’re not quite as good as their peak 2014 and 2015 teams, they should manage to top last year’s 11th place finish. I would not quite be willing to put them above Crews, however, solely on the basis that Crews is a Brookwood feeder and fast riser. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if River Trail finished ahead.
8. Five Forks – While everyone quibbles over the order of 5th–7th, predicting Five Forks in 8th seems to be very common. The other Brookwood feeder is a strong team, capping off another regional win after a rapid rise last year. Unfortunately we don’t have scores from Coweta County regionals, so they could be a lot better (or worse) than we think.
9. Hightower Trail – They finished just behind River Trail at regionals, but I’m ranking them here because River Trail had strong showings on their B team. They did well at Dodgen, though unfortunately I never finished collating the raw scores from both flights so I could compare them to top Southeast teams and other contenders like South Forsyth, so it’s hard to tell exactly where they stand.
10. Kittredge Magnet – Although they fell back rather drastically at regionals (finishing in 4th), they’ve been very consistent over the last few years (or at least as long as I’ve been around they’ve been in contention for top 5 at state; not sure about before that. RFScoach may know more). Note that Kittredge’s team is entirely composed of sixth graders, so they likely start out weaker than most teams. If they haven’t lost a coach, I doubt they’ll fall back too far.
Honorable Mentions: Bennett’s Mill, Dickerson, Chamblee
(thank you East and John for being among the few people to put in reasonable predictions)
Good luck to all of the teams! As of now it looks like I'll be there, so yay live medal recordings! (assuming WiFi holds out)
1. Dodgen – Despite losing to FSA at regionals, they’ve led the rest of the teams by quite a bit throughout the invitational season, and have the history to keep it up. However, it’s entirely plausible for the top three to finish in any order.
2. Fulton Science Academy – They were behind Vickery Creek rather consistently at invitationals, but seem to have stepped it up after Wright State, beating Dodgen on a tiebreaker at regionals, so they should have a good shot at qualifying again (which, despite six previous qualifications, would make this the longest qualifying streak in their history).
3. Vickery Creek – Although they’ve been very strong this year, the Nationals barrier is hard to break; they were right behind FSA all of last year, but ended up losing to them by over 50 points at state. However, they’ve been third place for the last three years and are probably hungry for a chance at nationals. Should be closer than last year.
4. Oconee County – although they don’t go to any invitationals, they did very well at regionals, finishing in the top three in 19 events against Vickery Creek. They should have a good chance at matching last year’s 4th place finish.
5. South Forsyth – I seem to be in disagreement with many others on this one. With strong finishes at invitationals throughout the year, this is the only team that’s come close to beating any of the Southeast powerhouses’ B teams. They took first and second at regionals while split, and have led the other contenders on this list during the season, so I think they’re the most likely team to take the final plaque.
6. Crews – Although they weren’t as visible as South Forsyth, Crews finished in third at regionals with a good score of 138, around 40 points better than last year (when they finished 7th at state). Although they didn’t beat either FSA or Dodgen’s B teams, consider that in 2014 Eagles Home Educators nearly lost to FSA’s C team at regionals (they won on a tie), and still finished 7th at state.
7. River Trail – River Trail seems to have recovered from last year’s fall, finishing first at regionals again, with their B team beating their A team in several events. While they’re not quite as good as their peak 2014 and 2015 teams, they should manage to top last year’s 11th place finish. I would not quite be willing to put them above Crews, however, solely on the basis that Crews is a Brookwood feeder and fast riser. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if River Trail finished ahead.
8. Five Forks – While everyone quibbles over the order of 5th–7th, predicting Five Forks in 8th seems to be very common. The other Brookwood feeder is a strong team, capping off another regional win after a rapid rise last year. Unfortunately we don’t have scores from Coweta County regionals, so they could be a lot better (or worse) than we think.
9. Hightower Trail – They finished just behind River Trail at regionals, but I’m ranking them here because River Trail had strong showings on their B team. They did well at Dodgen, though unfortunately I never finished collating the raw scores from both flights so I could compare them to top Southeast teams and other contenders like South Forsyth, so it’s hard to tell exactly where they stand.
10. Kittredge Magnet – Although they fell back rather drastically at regionals (finishing in 4th), they’ve been very consistent over the last few years (or at least as long as I’ve been around they’ve been in contention for top 5 at state; not sure about before that. RFScoach may know more). Note that Kittredge’s team is entirely composed of sixth graders, so they likely start out weaker than most teams. If they haven’t lost a coach, I doubt they’ll fall back too far.
Honorable Mentions: Bennett’s Mill, Dickerson, Chamblee
(thank you East and John for being among the few people to put in reasonable predictions)
Good luck to all of the teams! As of now it looks like I'll be there, so yay live medal recordings! (assuming WiFi holds out)