Scioly.org

Paypog wrote:

TheCrazyChemist wrote:Top 3 are going to be really close. However, I think that Solon might take it again this year. They didn't lose to Community by much at Cornell, and apparently Solon wasn't stacked. I was completely convinced that Community was going to win this year until I heard that Solon wasn't stacked at Cornell . I still think that it's possible for Community to win, but I think that Solon has a slight edge. And I don't even know how to compare Kennedy to those two, but people seem to be ranking them really high. Really, consistency will be key for the winning team (Copyright like everyone).

Honestly, I think that either Community or Kennedy is gonna win this year. I say this because I personally believe Solon has gotten weaker (like everyone has been saying) and whether they were unstacked or not, they aren't the same level team they were last year, which was a godly team that only won the nation by 16 points. My main example for their decline would be that last year, Solon A and Solon B (unstacked I assume) took home first and second place at the West Liberty Salem invitational by quite a significant margin. This year, with similar level teams (imo), they got 3rd and 8th at the invitational, which is a significant drop. Although there most definitely may have been other factors at play, they didn't perform nearly as well as last year, and unless they truly pick it up, I think Kennedy or Community have a very good chance at dethroning them. (keep in mind, they are Solon so like... who really knows)

Community has the home court advantage. Logistic will be a challenge for Kennedy.

SONica wrote: Community has the home court advantage. Logistic will be a challenge for Kennedy.

True. I think experience and logistics will really play a part into this National competition, giving advantages to Solon and Community. Honestly, I think that the margins of the top 3 will be so small that really minor details could completely change the outcome of this year's Nats competition.

Here are my rankings:

1. Community or Kennedy or Solon
2. Kennedy or Solon or Community
3. Kennedy or Solon or Community
4. Beckendorff
5. DWJHS
6. Gelinas
7. Springhouse
8. Piedmont
9. Kraemer
10. Longfellow
11. SSA


1&2&3. Really can't tell between these 2. Solon has a history of doing really well at Nats, but looks about the same as last year. Kennedy doesn't have the history, but has been doing better at their invitationals, regionals, states, then last year. Honestly these 2 and Community probably will end up in the top 3, regardless of the order.

4. I think they're doing about the same as last year, and as long as they don't fluke like last year, they probably have a good shot at top 5.

5. I might switch them with Gelinas. They haven't been matched up with Gelinas yet so I have no idea.

6. See above.

7. Springhouse has lost to Gelinas at every invitational (except maybe Cornell, but I'm not sure how credible that is). They seem to have lost a little power since last year, but still definitely makes a case for top 6. I *might* switch them with Piedmont, but idk.

8. Just based off of previous nationals placements.

9. See above

10. Don't know much about this team.

Edited

So... any updated predictions now that SSA didnt make it?

Galahad wrote:So... any updated predictions now that SSA didnt make it?

I'd move Springhouse down from anyone's predictions (meh states score), as well as move Harlan to around 18th? dunno

sciolyperson1 wrote:

Galahad wrote:So... any updated predictions now that SSA didnt make it?

I'd move Springhouse down from anyone's predictions (meh states score), as well as move Harlan to around 18th? dunno

Seems reasonable to me. I think anyone who had Springhouse 7th or higher would need to move them down. If anyone was ranking them 9th or 10th, I think that's still a fair range for them. I haven't made my rankings yet, but I'm expecting them to end up around 9th through 13th.

As for Harlan, 18th seems fair. I think I'd put them around 16th or 17th, but I think the range of 14th through 20th is most likely, which is honestly not far from where I'd have put SSA or BC (Rankings that had SSA 11th or 12th were definitely overrating them a bit; SSA's seemed weaker than last year all year, and last year's team placed 13th).

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote:

Galahad wrote:So... any updated predictions now that SSA didnt make it?

I'd move Springhouse down from anyone's predictions (meh states score), as well as move Harlan to around 18th? dunno

Seems reasonable to me. I think anyone who had Springhouse 7th or higher would need to move them down. If anyone was ranking them 9th or 10th, I think that's still a fair range for them. I haven't made my rankings yet, but I'm expecting them to end up around 9th through 13th.

As for Harlan, 18th seems fair. I think I'd put them around 16th or 17th, but I think the range of 14th through 20th is most likely, which is honestly not far from where I'd have put SSA or BC (Rankings that had SSA 11th or 12th were definitely overrating them a bit; SSA's seemed weaker than last year all year, and last year's team placed 13th).

Placements between like 13 and like 18 are determined pretty much by who has more bombs that the other, all the teams around that are all pretty equal in competitiveness.

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote:
I'd move Springhouse down from anyone's predictions (meh states score), as well as move Harlan to around 18th? dunno

Seems reasonable to me. I think anyone who had Springhouse 7th or higher would need to move them down. If anyone was ranking them 9th or 10th, I think that's still a fair range for them. I haven't made my rankings yet, but I'm expecting them to end up around 9th through 13th.

As for Harlan, 18th seems fair. I think I'd put them around 16th or 17th, but I think the range of 14th through 20th is most likely, which is honestly not far from where I'd have put SSA or BC (Rankings that had SSA 11th or 12th were definitely overrating them a bit; SSA's seemed weaker than last year all year, and last year's team placed 13th).

Just so you're aware, SSA had the most top 3 placements in the state of PA, however bombing 4 events compared to the Springhouse's, Bala's, and Harlan's 2 bombs each, ended up being the determining factor. Overall, I think there are two very solid teams representing the state of PA this year, but SSA was not overrated as I see it. They did well but couldn't make it all the way.

I'd put Harlan around 18th as well just because they are very inexperienced at a national level. However, they definitely have potential to place higher as they have a lot of power which they proved on Saturday.

Paypog wrote:

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

sciolyperson1 wrote:
I'd move Springhouse down from anyone's predictions (meh states score), as well as move Harlan to around 18th? dunno

Seems reasonable to me. I think anyone who had Springhouse 7th or higher would need to move them down. If anyone was ranking them 9th or 10th, I think that's still a fair range for them. I haven't made my rankings yet, but I'm expecting them to end up around 9th through 13th.

As for Harlan, 18th seems fair. I think I'd put them around 16th or 17th, but I think the range of 14th through 20th is most likely, which is honestly not far from where I'd have put SSA or BC (Rankings that had SSA 11th or 12th were definitely overrating them a bit; SSA's seemed weaker than last year all year, and last year's team placed 13th).

Just so you're aware, SSA had the most top 3 placements in the state of PA, however bombing 4 events compared to the Springhouse's, Bala's, and Harlan's 2 bombs each, ended up being the determining factor. Overall, I think there are two very solid teams representing the state of PA this year, but SSA was not overrated as I see it. They did well but couldn't make it all the way.

I'd put Harlan around 18th as well just because they are very inexperienced at a national level. However, they definitely have potential to place higher as they have a lot of power which they proved on Saturday.

You do realize that bombs are more impactful at nationals than states, not less...

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

Paypog wrote:

EastStroudsburg13 wrote: Seems reasonable to me. I think anyone who had Springhouse 7th or higher would need to move them down. If anyone was ranking them 9th or 10th, I think that's still a fair range for them. I haven't made my rankings yet, but I'm expecting them to end up around 9th through 13th.

As for Harlan, 18th seems fair. I think I'd put them around 16th or 17th, but I think the range of 14th through 20th is most likely, which is honestly not far from where I'd have put SSA or BC (Rankings that had SSA 11th or 12th were definitely overrating them a bit; SSA's seemed weaker than last year all year, and last year's team placed 13th).

Just so you're aware, SSA had the most top 3 placements in the state of PA, however bombing 4 events compared to the Springhouse's, Bala's, and Harlan's 2 bombs each, ended up being the determining factor. Overall, I think there are two very solid teams representing the state of PA this year, but SSA was not overrated as I see it. They did well but couldn't make it all the way.

I'd put Harlan around 18th as well just because they are very inexperienced at a national level. However, they definitely have potential to place higher as they have a lot of power which they proved on Saturday.

You do realize that bombs are more impactful at nationals than states, not less...

You do realize teams have a month to work on their events from states to nationals. Every event that bombed is one that would have been improved with practice (inquiries). So yes, they bombed and teams deserved to make nationals over them in the end, but had they made it, I don't think they were being overrated.