Pennsylvania 2018

[ReBobville]

Well here we go again- another season of regionals coming beginning in PA starting with SE (as usual...) With that in mind, here is some advice from an old guy:

1) Reread the rules for your events. Do the day before you compete. Make sure you know them and don't mess them up when you compete- no supervisor wants to DQ you or drop you a tier

2) Take some time to pack! One more cram session of studying is not going to help you all that much. Forgetting something can/will seriously hurt you. (and stress out your already stressed coach) Make sure you have everything

3) Be nice! The people running the event are volunteers and are there because they want you to have a memorable experience. They are not perfect. If something isn't right find a way to help fix it and just go with the flow of the day

4) Be independent. Competing is sort of a trial run for life in college/after high school. Know what you need to do (whether its compete in an event, transport equipment, etc.) and do it without prompting. Also the more independent each teammate is, the less stressful the day will be for the team.

5) Own success and failure. You win as a team and lose as a team. Don't blame somebody if they have a bad event. Trust me they are probably beating themselves up enough. Don't pile on. I've watched people miss a medal at regionals and medal at states and nationals. Use your disappointment to help your teammates improve.

5) Don't judge. Regionals is only one competition. If your fortunate enough to continue on to states, you will find that the competitive landscape can change drastically. The relative strength of events and teams varies greatly from competition to competition. See my above comment about medals.

6) Act with decorum. Congratulate those who won. Don't come here to the forum and rage about someone's bad day or how great your team is if you win/qualify. For every great success there is a disappointment. Be aware of that.

7) HAVE FUN! Please. I've watched people leave regionals in tears over a bad event. While we ALL want to perform well, Science Olympiad is supposed to be a great experience. Enjoy being around hundreds of like-minded people who are all as excited about science as you are. Competing is an awesome experience that does not last forever.

Best of luck to all of you! Have fun and take the time to take it all in.

[EastStroudsburg13]

As promised, here’s C Division. Since there are more C Divisioners on here, this is probably more popular, although it means more people are likely to pay attention to it and make me end up on @OldTakesExposed, so you know, it’s a tradeoff I guess. Here goes nothing!

Southeast: 1. Harriton, 2. Bayard Rustin, 3. Lower Merion, 4. Conestoga, 5. Penncrest
Oh, great, of course this is first. No matter what I do here, someone will see this, use it as motivation, and then I’ll be wrong because of it. So, for the love of everything, please, Harriton, just win and make me look a little bit good. I’m going Rustin second, since of the remaining teams, they’re the ones with the most impressive invitational results. I’m always a proponent of never judging teams by their worst invitationals, but Rustin is so battle-tested, has shown out well at so many different invites, and just looks a bit stronger overall than last year. Lower Merion and Conestoga was the toughest decision I had to make here; in the end, I decided to go by this year’s general results, where LM has tended to have the advantage, over Stoga’s historical excellence at regionals. That brings me to Penncrest, who actually feels like a solid bet for 5th. They’re good enough that I don’t foresee anyone catching them from behind, but they have just been a step behind the three teams above them at nearly every competition so far. As for the 2-3 state spots remaining, North Penn looks like they’ve kept their gradual improvement going, especially with an impressive result at SOUP, so they should be safe. After that, Garnet Valley, Central Bucks South, Haverford, and Strath Haven seem like they’ll be in a dogfight for the final spot or two, in descending order of likelihood.

Northwest: 1. North East, 2. Seneca, 3. NWPA Collegiate Academy, 4. Wilmington Area
Again, a little hard to predict what will happen here. We could be seeing a North East takeover in this region based on how open it is. Seneca and NW PA Collegiate Academy seem like relatively safe bets to make states based on recent history, though I wouldn’t bet on an identical order to last year. In 4th, I’m betting on Wilmington Area coming back from last year, where they missed states by 3 points, received a DQ in Experimental, and outside of some event bombs, performed well enough to qualify. I can see them being motivated enough to hold off Laurel and Clarion Area.

Southwest: 1. Shady Side, 2. Franklin Regional, 3. Quaker Valley, 4. Norwin, 5. Allderdice
Shady Side has fully established dominance in C by now, with a high score of 85 and a lowest winning margin of 47 points. Franklin Regional will likely continue improving as it gets more graduates from its B program, but the margin to SSA is huge. After that, it’s a bit of a toss-up. I’m hoping that the 8th graders from Quaker Valley’s 10th place team from 2014 are seniors now, boosting the team to third over Norwin, who’s been consistent since 2015. Following them is Allderdice, who’s also been consistent, but it’s hard to tell where they’ll finish; as high as 3rd wouldn’t surprise me, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they were overtaken by the likes of Woodland Hills or Montour.

Northeast: 1. North Pocono, 2. Stroudsburg, 3. Abington Heights, 4. Wallenpaupack Area, 5. Wyoming Area
Throughout this season, it’s been apparent that three teams were in the mix for the Northeast title, but I’ve had trouble sorting them out. I’ve finally decided on North Pocono to win it, as they seem to have had the best combination of quantity and quality in their invitational results, and I suspect there’s a revenge factor from their streak being broken last year. As for second place, there’s not a lot of direct comparison, but I’ve felt that Abington Heights’ results haven’t been as strong as where they were at this time last year, and while Stroudsburg only has one result to go off of, they did beat a strong North Penn team at the North Pocono invite. After these three, there’s likely to be a pretty sizable gap before reaching fourth and fifth, which has been between Wallenpaupack and Wyoming Area all season. This is really a gut pick here; the momentum feels like it’s in ‘Paupack’s favor. These two should comfortably qualify for states though, leaving an intriguing battle for sixth, with Dallas and East Stroudsburg South as the current favorites, but a good day from any of Athens Area, Lehighton Area, or Pleasant Valley could snag it.

Central East: 1. Perkiomen Valley, 2. Northwestern Lehigh, 3. Parkland, 4. Allentown Central Catholic, 5. Exeter Township
As of now, this is still the second-strongest region in the state for C, though Central might be catching up. Northwestern Lehigh and Perkiomen Valley are the strong favorites to be the top two, and while I think Northwestern will finish higher at states, I have a slight feeling that PV takes this round; they had a very strong result at their only (known) invite, and definitely could be seeking to take back the regional crown after a one-year break. Northwestern has looked solid, but I haven’t seen a defining result to secure them as clear favorites in the race. After that, Parkland still oozes with untapped potential, but if they avoid any disasters, they should at least get 3rd over Allentown Central Catholic, who has the higher floor, but doesn’t quite have the upside of Parkland. Then there are a number of teams who could follow, with Whitehall being the apparent favorite of those, but Exeter Township is back after a year in the Central region, and I don’t think the bubble of the region is strong enough that they can’t reach 5th in their return. Whitehall is still a decent bet to qualify, but Wyomissing Area is surely looking to compete at states after qualifying last year but not attending, Fleetwood Area is always a threat, and Kutztown Area could be back, judging by a solid Tiger placing.

Central: 1. Cumberland Valley, 2. Hershey, 3. Central York, 4. Manheim Central, 5. State College
I really wasn’t sure about putting Cumberland Valley all the way up at first, as that’d be a very significant jump. But on the other hand, CV has shown out incredibly well at every competition they’ve gone to, and has a few classes from Eagle View's successful days now (and Good Hope), and I think first place is open enough that they can snag it. This is with full realization that there are a lot of solid teams in this region; Hershey was unstacked but solid at MC Barons, Central York performed well at BVF and Barons, and Manheim Central still looks like a rising threat. But CV likely has a higher ceiling than Hershey, and if they avoid any event bombs, they’ll have the inside track on first. As for the order of second through fourth, I mainly used general invitational performance, though it’s incredibly close to call. I expect State College to be decent yet again, but I have to think that they may not be quite at their best yet because of how much invite experience the other teams are getting; watch for them to be stronger at states. I expect these teams to finish in the top 5 in some order, but this region is deep with more states-caliber teams, with Red Land, Elizabethtown Area, and Cedar Cliff all looking decent at invites, Spring Grove potentially looming if they start getting back to their 2015 level, and 2017 debutant Shippensburg Area potentially rising. This is going to be a great race.

Southeast Urban: 1. Swenson Arts and Technology, 2. Kensington CAPA, 3. Penn Upward Bound
It appears as though Swenson Arts and Tech is back to competing this year, and they are surely eager to resume their string of first-place finishes. I believe (perhaps falsely…) Friends Select is back to Southeast this year, so the main competition is likely to be Kensington CAPA (Creative and Performing Arts), who finished second last year, which was their best result so far. After them, it’s hard to tell, especially with the final roster of teams not fully stable; I’ll go with last year’s third-place finisher, Penn Upward Bound, as a relatively safe bet.

I know this sometimes tends to monopolize the PA regional prediction realm, so please by all means make your own guesses! Do your own region, try a different region, even if you're out of state (Unome would probably do better than me anyway!). And, as always, good luck to all teams!

[Unome]

Predictions, yay!

SE B - just waiting for that unexpected T-E
SW B - chances of Shady Side under 45 points?
CN B - I'd put Hershey over Eagle View, but marginally. (also CN = Central now, because I can't stand single-letter abbreviations )
SE C - I'd take the alternative route and put 'Stoga over Lower Merion, if barely.
CE C - I think NW Lehigh will finish ahead, although I haven't been paying attention as closely this year.
CN C - Would be interesting to see Cumberland Valley win, I didn't think they had gotten their strong classes yet.

[IcsTam]

I know this sometimes tends to monopolize the PA regional prediction realm, so please by all means make your own guesses! Do your own region, try a different region, even if you're out of state (Unome would probably do better than me anyway!). And, as always, good luck to all teams!

I don't like to make predictions since I have skin in the game, but I'm really excited to see what happens tomorrow! I actually think that Haverford will get the last SEPA spot, but I think that spot is up for grabs. Good luck to everyone competing tomorrow!

[ScottMaurer19]

Southwest: 1. Shady Side, 2. Franklin Regional, 3. Quaker Valley, 4. Norwin, 5. Allderdice
Shady Side has fully established dominance in C by now, with a high score of 85 and a lowest winning margin of 47 points. Franklin Regional will likely continue improving as it gets more graduates from its B program, but the margin to SSA is huge. After that, it’s a bit of a toss-up. I’m hoping that the 8th graders from Quaker Valley’s 10th place team from 2014 are seniors now, boosting the team to third over Norwin, who’s been consistent since 2015. Following them is Allderdice, who’s also been consistent, but it’s hard to tell where they’ll finish; as high as 3rd wouldn’t surprise me, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they were overtaken by the likes of Woodland Hills or Montour.

Has Shady Side been beating Harriton?

[Froggie]

SW B - chances of Shady Side under 45 points?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA we have so many conflicts

[Unome]

Southwest: 1. Shady Side, 2. Franklin Regional, 3. Quaker Valley, 4. Norwin, 5. Allderdice
Shady Side has fully established dominance in C by now, with a high score of 85 and a lowest winning margin of 47 points. Franklin Regional will likely continue improving as it gets more graduates from its B program, but the margin to SSA is huge. After that, it’s a bit of a toss-up. I’m hoping that the 8th graders from Quaker Valley’s 10th place team from 2014 are seniors now, boosting the team to third over Norwin, who’s been consistent since 2015. Following them is Allderdice, who’s also been consistent, but it’s hard to tell where they’ll finish; as high as 3rd wouldn’t surprise me, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if they were overtaken by the likes of Woodland Hills or Montour.

Has Shady Side been beating Harriton?

No, although it used to be the case that Shady Side's Div C team would outperform all the other teams at state but frequently fail to win regionals. However in recent years they've been winning the regional with low scores (relative to past SW winning scores) and by large margins.

[Paypog]

SW B - chances of Shady Side under 45 points?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA we have so many conflicts

[Pettywap]

SW B - chances of Shady Side under 45 points?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA we have so many conflicts

I would think that Div B has a pretty good chance as they won with 38 points last year.

"conflicts"

[Anomaly]

Good luck to everyone competing in SE regionals today!