New Jersey 2020

[jaggie34]

Division C predictions, in classic EastStroudsburg13 format:

• WW-P North and WW-P South do seem pretty close right now. Although some of South's events are not doing well, I'm confident that their invitational results do not put themselves in a good light; they are always missing a few people here and there at all competitions.
• Both WWPN and WWPS's results skip back and forth; WWPS's reg's score was scaringly strong (44 vs. 83, almost half WWPN), while WWPN's scores at Conestoga, MIT, and Princeton can also be described as "strong". Either way, the results can turn back and forth, but I'm leaning towards South for the gold.
• Montgomery seems to be the main contender for 3rd place, Princeton results show that they are behind both WWP's, yet are still significantly ahead of S. Brunswick, Hillsborough, Princeton, and E. Brunswick.
• Princeton HS does not seem as strong this year; although they got 3rd at regionals, there was a significant gap between them, S Brunswick, E Brunswick, and Hillsborough. These four schools will likely occupy places 4th-7th.
• J.P's regional score was average at best, they placed behind E Brunswick, S Brunswick, Princeton, WWPN, and WWPS. Afaik they haven't been to any invitationals, which may or may not lead to them being a little behind S/E Brunswick, Princeton, and Hillsborough.
  
  1) WWPS
  2) WWPN
  3) Montgomery
  4) Hillsborough
  5) S. Brunswick
  6) E. Brunswick
  7) Princeton
  8) J.P

Nobody in their right minds would put south over north right now

Although I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that, I have to agree that North does seem to be a stronger team this year, for example North's average placement per event at Princeton was just below 5th while South's was just above 11th. However, it's often hard to compare state tournaments to invitationals, as last year based on invites North was arguably better, but South still ended up winning states and moving on to Nationals.

[builderguy135]

Division C predictions, in classic EastStroudsburg13 format:

• WW-P North and WW-P South do seem pretty close right now. Although some of South's events are not doing well, I'm confident that their invitational results do not put themselves in a good light; they are always missing a few people here and there at all competitions.
• Both WWPN and WWPS's results skip back and forth; WWPS's reg's score was scaringly strong (44 vs. 83, almost half WWPN), while WWPN's scores at Conestoga, MIT, and Princeton can also be described as "strong". Either way, the results can turn back and forth, but I'm leaning towards South for the gold.
• Montgomery seems to be the main contender for 3rd place, Princeton results show that they are behind both WWP's, yet are still significantly ahead of S. Brunswick, Hillsborough, Princeton, and E. Brunswick.
• Princeton HS does not seem as strong this year; although they got 3rd at regionals, there was a significant gap between them, S Brunswick, E Brunswick, and Hillsborough. These four schools will likely occupy places 4th-7th.
• J.P's regional score was average at best, they placed behind E Brunswick, S Brunswick, Princeton, WWPN, and WWPS. Afaik they haven't been to any invitationals, which may or may not lead to them being a little behind S/E Brunswick, Princeton, and Hillsborough.
  
  1) WWPS
  2) WWPN
  3) Montgomery
  4) Hillsborough
  5) S. Brunswick
  6) E. Brunswick
  7) Princeton
  8) J.P

Nobody in their right minds would put south over north right now

Although I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that, I have to agree that North does seem to be a stronger team this year, for example North's average placement per event at Princeton was just below 5th while South's was just above 11th. However, it's often hard to compare state tournaments to invitationals, as last year based on invites North was arguably better, but South still ended up winning states and moving on to Nationals.

Part of the reason why is that the tests can sometimes be insultingly easy and short in both regionals and states. As a result, scores can be really close together and one mistake on a test can potentially cost a few placements. I've also seen tests being reused for 4 years in a row (UCC road?) which results in close scores that can influence overall results.

Hopefully NJSO can get volunteers to write better tests in the future.

Edit: if you can, apply to write a test for NJ states! Every test helps lol

[lumosityfan]

Nobody in their right minds would put south over north right now

Although I wouldn't go quite so far as to say that, I have to agree that North does seem to be a stronger team this year, for example North's average placement per event at Princeton was just below 5th while South's was just above 11th. However, it's often hard to compare state tournaments to invitationals, as last year based on invites North was arguably better, but South still ended up winning states and moving on to Nationals.

Part of the reason why is that the tests can sometimes be insultingly easy and short in both regionals and states. As a result, scores can be really close together and one mistake on a test can potentially cost a few placements. I've also seen tests being reused for 4 years in a row (UCC road?) which results in close scores that can influence overall results.

Hopefully NJSO can get volunteers to write better tests in the future.

Edit: if you can, apply to write a test for NJ states! Every test helps lol

^^^^^ Pls if you can volunteer at states or write a test. I really don't need to cringe at another PRES story from NJ States again

[lumosityfan]

Division C predictions, in classic EastStroudsburg13 format:

• WW-P North and WW-P South do seem pretty close right now. Although some of South's events are not doing well, I'm confident that their invitational results do not put themselves in a good light; they are always missing a few people here and there at all competitions.
• Both WWPN and WWPS's results skip back and forth; WWPS's reg's score was scaringly strong (44 vs. 83, almost half WWPN), while WWPN's scores at Conestoga, MIT, and Princeton can also be described as "strong". Either way, the results can turn back and forth, but I'm leaning towards South for the gold.
• Montgomery seems to be the main contender for 3rd place, Princeton results show that they are behind both WWP's, yet are still significantly ahead of S. Brunswick, Hillsborough, Princeton, and E. Brunswick.
• Princeton HS does not seem as strong this year; although they got 3rd at regionals, there was a significant gap between them, S Brunswick, E Brunswick, and Hillsborough. These four schools will likely occupy places 4th-7th.
• J.P's regional score was average at best, they placed behind E Brunswick, S Brunswick, Princeton, WWPN, and WWPS. Afaik they haven't been to any invitationals, which may or may not lead to them being a little behind S/E Brunswick, Princeton, and Hillsborough.
  
  1) WWPS
  2) WWPN
  3) Montgomery
  4) Hillsborough
  5) S. Brunswick
  6) E. Brunswick
  7) Princeton
  8) J.P

I'm curious what makes you put hillsborough at 4th. They didn't exactly eclipse s. brunswick at princeton and they haven't ever finished above 7th at states (although that's certainly not what would stop them from getting 4th; just more trends). I feel like princeton will get its act together at states as it tends to do. Also JPs regional score isn't much worse than previous years; it just so happened that eb took a great leap this year and the field just got more competitive.

This is my rankings:
1. North
2. South
3. Monty
4. SB
5. Pton
6. EB
7. JP
8. Hills

[bromothymol]

a lot of these teams (EB, MHS, SB, JP, PHS, etc.) have lots of potential (and as of now, time) to improve from where PUSO currently shows them to be—in any situation, "stronger" schools (we know the frontrunners) have less room for improvement relative to their current standing. across the board, it's much easier to raise an event from 30th to 7th than from 6th to 1st with sufficient work, especially when we consider the variability that comes into play with NJSO tournaments. making rankings now may be a bit presumptive.

with that said, I believe places 1 through 6 really could end up going in any direction, with the WWPs holding the gold and silver.

[rabbitman]

basically, its completely RNG

[builderguy135]

My [Unbiased] Updated NJ Predictions after Princeton Invite:
PUSO Results: https://app.avogadro.ws/invitational/pr ... 9Cvc9qGsS4

After taking a look at Princeton Invite results, I changed my mind slightly. Here goes my updated predictions for NJ States 2020: (Explanation will be provided after)

1) West Windsor-Plainsboro HS North (57)
2) West Windsor-Plainsboro HS South (84)
3) Montgomery HS (112)
4) South Brunswick HS (198)
5) East Brunswick HS (212)
6) Princeton HS (284)

Based off Princeton, I have to start by commending North on their impressive performance. They humiliated South with a total score of 114 versus South's total score of 257. Most notably, North had just 3 events where they placed greater than 10th place, but all three were all better than 19th place, which clearly shows that North is capable of performing consistently in almost all their events. On the other hand, South's builds once again [as predicted in my previous post] weighed them down tremendously [failing to place in any of their build events at PUSO]. At this current rate, I can only see this pattern to be continued at the State level. I actually had the chance to personally talk with one of South's primary builders, and he just seemed to be as uncommitted to Science Olympiad in general this year, so I'm not sure how they will manage to step their builds up. Despite all this, the most important thing to point out is the fact that South brought their 95% stacked teams to Princeton [and I confirmed this with all four of their captains], so I can only speculate that these performances will be carried onto NJ States (and even stronger performances for North, as North was unstacked). What was also notable was that Montgomery was close behind South, placing fifth with an overall score of 285. They still have potential to beat out South this year, but are a far shot away from coming close to North. Also, South Brunswick and East Brunswick seem to be relatively close in terms of performance, just as South and Montgomery are, so 4 and 5 could be easily swapped for States. I still have yet to see JP Stevens at any invites, but Princeton HS had a much weaker than anticipated performance at PUSO, compared to previous years. In conclusion, this year's state title will most probably go to North, and it may very easily be one of those years where the final score of the state champ team is a sub 60 score. North has been weak in either study or builds in previous years, but this year they've managed to work to perfect both parts. South does have a chance of returning to reign as state champs, but most likely not this year. Let me know if you agree or disagree with my predictions in the comments below!

Stay tuned for my last set of predictions after Penn invite!!

wait @scioly_veteran and @bromothymol you guys are both from South right?

[pb5754]

My [Unbiased] Updated NJ Predictions after Princeton Invite:
PUSO Results: https://app.avogadro.ws/invitational/pr ... 9Cvc9qGsS4

After taking a look at Princeton Invite results, I changed my mind slightly. Here goes my updated predictions for NJ States 2020: (Explanation will be provided after)

1) West Windsor-Plainsboro HS North (57)
2) West Windsor-Plainsboro HS South (84)
3) Montgomery HS (112)
4) South Brunswick HS (198)
5) East Brunswick HS (212)
6) Princeton HS (284)

Based off Princeton, I have to start by commending North on their impressive performance. They humiliated South with a total score of 114 versus South's total score of 257. Most notably, North had just 3 events where they placed greater than 10th place, but all three were all better than 19th place, which clearly shows that North is capable of performing consistently in almost all their events. On the other hand, South's builds once again [as predicted in my previous post] weighed them down tremendously [failing to place in any of their build events at PUSO]. At this current rate, I can only see this pattern to be continued at the State level. I actually had the chance to personally talk with one of South's primary builders, and he just seemed to be as uncommitted to Science Olympiad in general this year, so I'm not sure how they will manage to step their builds up. Despite all this, the most important thing to point out is the fact that South brought their 95% stacked teams to Princeton [and I confirmed this with all four of their captains], so I can only speculate that these performances will be carried onto NJ States (and even stronger performances for North, as North was unstacked). What was also notable was that Montgomery was close behind South, placing fifth with an overall score of 285. They still have potential to beat out South this year, but are a far shot away from coming close to North. Also, South Brunswick and East Brunswick seem to be relatively close in terms of performance, just as South and Montgomery are, so 4 and 5 could be easily swapped for States. I still have yet to see JP Stevens at any invites, but Princeton HS had a much weaker than anticipated performance at PUSO, compared to previous years. In conclusion, this year's state title will most probably go to North, and it may very easily be one of those years where the final score of the state champ team is a sub 60 score. North has been weak in either study or builds in previous years, but this year they've managed to work to perfect both parts. South does have a chance of returning to reign as state champs, but most likely not this year. Let me know if you agree or disagree with my predictions in the comments below!

Stay tuned for my last set of predictions after Penn invite!!

wait @scioly_veteran and @bromothymol you guys are both from South right?

as far as im aware, scioly_veteran is not anyone on our team... probably just a troll

[poptrop459]

Yeah, Princeton High's having a rough year this time around, but that's because we've been going unstacked and/or missing way too many of our key people at every tournament. We threw some builds for Pton (and lost a lot of people to the ACT) because we decided we wanted to work on them more. We should be in better shape for states.

[builderguy135]

My [Unbiased] Updated NJ Predictions after Princeton Invite:
PUSO Results: https://app.avogadro.ws/invitational/pr ... 9Cvc9qGsS4

Stay tuned for my last set of predictions after Penn invite!!

wait @scioly_veteran and @bromothymol you guys are both from South right?

as far as im aware, scioly_veteran is not anyone on our team... probably just a troll

Huh, weird. I don't think it's anyone on our team either, we kinda just assumed he/she was from South ngl.