Pennsylvania 2019

[EastStroudsburg13]

Well, based on the most recent team numbers, looks like Perkiomen Valley is back in Central East. Not sure exactly the reasons behind the switch back, just that they're listed and they got added onto the end of the team numbers.

[klastyioer]

Here's the stacked BVF results (I've had this, just forgot to post, lol):

1. WWP South - 121
2. Lower Merion - 147
3. Conestoga - 173
4. Cumberland Valley - 209
5. Princeton - 213
6. Great Neck South - 246
7. North Pocono - 267
8. Northwestern Lehigh - 363
9. North Penn - 373
10. Harriton - 380
11. Division Avenue - 392
12. Strath Haven - 416
13. Perkiomen Valley - 418
14. Red Land - 436
15. Shipley - 440
16. Central York - 445
17. Manheim Central - 474
18. West Chester East - 506
19. Allentown Central Catholic - 520
20. Haverford - 534
21. Downingtown STEM - 559
22. Devon Prep - 593
23. Cedar Cliff - 632
24. Conrad School of Science - 637
25. Tappan Zee - 663
26. Lehighton - 782
27. Springfield - 808

My thoughts on this:

• Cumberland Valley is still an big stretch to make nationals, but they're a pretty decent threat to break the top 5 bloc. We have yet to see Penncrest and Rustin against most of these teams, so SOUP will tell us a lot about the potential state pecking order.
• North Pocono and Northwestern are usually close, so it's possible that either North Pocono is a bit stronger this year or Northwestern got a bit weaker. I'm inclined to believe some of both, but more the former.
• The race for the final SEPA states places is going to be hot. North Penn, Perkiomen Valley, and Shipley were expected to be contenders, but Strath Haven was right up there with them. West Chester East, Haverford, and Downingtown STEM are still lurking behind, and we haven't seen Garnet Valley or Upper Dublin yet. SOUP and Princeton will tell us a bit more, but this could be a close battle all the way until regionals.
• I also would have expected PV to be much higher than they were, so it's possible this year is a rebuilding year for them. Not great timing coupled with a move to SEPA, as they could be in danger of missing states altogether. I still expect them to pull through, but it's no longer a sure thing.
• The rest of the PA teams filled out about as expected. Red Land, Central York, and Manheim Central seem on course to return to states, and Allentown Central Catholic is a perennial CEPA qualifier. The fact that they are placed around the bubble teams in SEPA show how strong that region really is.

lol wait i thought we got 11 (hhs)
oh wait nvm ignore this cant delete it now oops

[EastStroudsburg13]

Results from North Pocono (the initial results I got had an alleged error in Fermi scoring, these are the corrected results):

Full Results (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*]Bayard Rustin Blue - 69
[*]Penncrest - 92
[*]Northwestern Lehigh A - 161
[*]North Penn 2 - 167
[*]North Penn 1 - 229
[*]Allentown Central Catholic Green - 238
[*]Stroudsburg White - 278
[*]East Stroudsburg South - 281
[*]Wallenpaupack - 288
[*]Ithaca - 306
[*]Bayard Rustin Gold - 320
[*]Wyoming Area Gold - 327
[*]Scranton Prep - 345
[*]Lehighton - 359
[*]Wyoming Area Green - 367
[*]Ramapo A - 387
[*]Pocono Mountain East - 418
[*]Holy Redeemer - 425
[*]Allentown Central Catholic Gold - 429
[*]Ramapo B - 442
[*]Emmaus - 454
[*]Northwestern Lehigh B - 456
[*]Athens Area Black - 466
[*]Perkiomen School - 483
[*]Al-Noor A - 490
[*]Stroudsburg Maroon - 492
[*]Abington Heights - 496
[*]Athens Area Silver - 509
[*]Al-Noor B - 548
[*]Bayard Rustin White - 569
[*]Sugar Valley Rural - 613[/list]

And here are the scores after manual stacking:

Manual Stacking Results (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*]Bayard Rustin - 59
[*]Penncrest - 92
[*]North Penn - 134
[*]Northwestern Lehigh - 159
[*]Allentown Central Catholic - 223
[*]Stroudsburg - 247
[*]Wyoming Area - 252
[*]East Stroudsburg South - 281
[*]Wallenpaupack - 288
[*]Ithaca - 306
[*]Ramapo - 309
[*]Scranton Prep - 345
[*]Lehighton - 359
[*]Athens Area - 385
[*]Pocono Mountain East - 418
[*]Holy Redeemer - 425
[*]Al-Noor - 435
[*]Emmaus - 454
[*]Perkiomen School - 483
[*]Abington Heights - 496
[*]Sugar Valley Rural - 613[/list]

Again, some observations:

• The SEPA teams placed about as expected. Penncrest seems clear enough of North Penn to get at least 5th, but may not be quite strong enough to challenge the top 4.
• As at Conestoga, North Penn placed above Northwestern Lehigh when stacking. I see this as a case of the former improving and the latter sliding a bit. Both appear to be on the bubble for the back end of the state top 10.
• Hard to judge the top of the NEPA teams, as North Pocono scores were removed and Abington Heights had a reserve team. It does appear as though Stroudsburg is a step behind where they were last year, so the regional title may be a two-team race this year, with Stroudsburg and Wyoming Area competing for third.
• With the NEPA bubble race taking shape, it seems that Scranton Prep, Lehighton, and Athens are currently behind East Stroudsburg South. With Dallas' strength still unknown, this year's bubble could end up being ES South, Wallenpaupack, and Dallas competing for two spots. The other three mentioned likely have work to do.

[eddpmett]

since gv was on saturday, any changes in predictions/early predictions/things to comment on?

[Paypog]

since gv was on saturday, any changes in predictions/early predictions/things to comment on?

Bala and Harlan are OP

[waffletree]

since gv was on saturday, any changes in predictions/early predictions/things to comment on?

Bala and Harlan are OP

hehe thanks.
we did a lot better than last year

[Anomaly]

since gv was on saturday, any changes in predictions/early predictions/things to comment on?

Bala and Harlan are OP

hehe thanks.
we did a lot better than last year

"Bala and Harlan are OP"...
...what about Springhouse?

[Paypog]

Bala and Harlan are OP

hehe thanks.
we did a lot better than last year

"Bala and Harlan are OP"...
...what about Springhouse?

Who? (let's see how long this will stay up till East removes it)

[sciolyperson1]

hehe thanks.
we did a lot better than last year

"Bala and Harlan are OP"...
...what about Springhouse?

Who? (let's see how long this will stay up till East removes it)

After Springhouse's "weak"ish performance at both Rustin (3rd and 22nd) and Garnet (2nd and 10th), its safe to say that they're a fair bit worse than last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Springhouse lost to SSA at states, or if Bala or Harlan made it to nats. Bala performed exceptionally well at Garnet (4th), with Harlan Rowe right behind them (just a 20 point difference). Cornell Invitational should be a good indicator on the four teams' performances.

[Paypog]

"Bala and Harlan are OP"...
...what about Springhouse?

Who? (let's see how long this will stay up till East removes it)

After Springhouse's "weak"ish performance at both Rustin (3rd and 22nd) and Garnet (2nd and 10th), its safe to say that they're a fair bit worse than last year. I wouldn't be surprised if Springhouse lost to SSA at states, or if Bala or Harlan made it to nats. Bala performed exceptionally well at Garnet (4th), with Harlan Rowe right behind them (just a 20 point difference). Cornell Invitational should be a good indicator on the four teams' performances.

Begone New Jersian