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Unome wrote:

Alex-RCHS wrote:Also, "manual stacking" assumes that you can assimilate people perfectly into one team, which is almost never true, so it usually exaggerates the strength of the schools with multiple teams.

^ This. For those using manual stacking for predictions, definitely be careful and try to account for this.

Maybe we could try taking the average of the placements for a school in each event? This may account for such exaggerations.

pb5754[] wrote:

Unome wrote:

Alex-RCHS wrote:Also, "manual stacking" assumes that you can assimilate people perfectly into one team, which is almost never true, so it usually exaggerates the strength of the schools with multiple teams.

^ This. For those using manual stacking for predictions, definitely be careful and try to account for this.

Maybe we could try taking the average of the placements for a school in each event? This may account for such exaggerations.

This could significantly skew data so single teams seem stronger.

What about builds always being manually stacked higher and have the average of the events the second team placed higher in.

Also I see no reason not to bring multiple teams to regionals/states if the teams are fully stacked. The points lost would generally be counteracted by the other teams points loss and could possibly help you. Also provided a good learning opportunity for the future.

I've thought about doing some sort of "degree of stacking" that uses a log function or square root or something to reduce the impact of manually stacking the scores of significantly unstacked teams, as a way of more accurately representing how a single team would have performed, but I haven't really delved into it fully yet.

NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.

knottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.

While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshman

Name wrote:

knottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.

While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshman

NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.

Unome wrote:

Name wrote:

knottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.

While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshman

NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.

How many more teams need to join for NJ to get two bids

lol, I realize this is pretty improbable, considering that it is probably about 150 more.

pb5754[] wrote:

Unome wrote:

Name wrote:
While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshman

NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.

How many more teams need to join for NJ to get two bids

lol, I realize this is pretty improbable, considering that it is probably about 150 more.

Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before. In NJ 2 years ago, there was space for plenty of C schools to bring 2 teams, but last year only a couple of teams could, and this year I don't think any could, because all 1st teams get priority over all 2nd teams. (We still have to pay a 2nd registration though so we can bring 2 teams to invites.) And, really, since NJ allows 18 people/team, plus there were like 5 alternates for the 2 trial events, we had room for more people than just our freshmen, but the bigger part of our competing was invites, where we went to 3 with 2 teams each, and we guaranteed everyone could go to at least one invite. But freshmen need to grow and learn more than the rest of us do, right, and the experience they gain will serve them for more years. The goal of team members should be to serve the best interests of the team, not themselves...

knottingpurple wrote: Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before.

Until nationals expands...

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:

knottingpurple wrote: Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before.

Until nationals expands...

What are the probability of nats expanding soon, and if so by how much?