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malamar2 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:32 am I feel like Cooper could overthrow Longfellow this year.

At Rustin, Cooper got 11th/13th unstacked while Longfellow got 3rd and 5th unstacked.

Watch for Carson in Div B. Also, as a former LBMS Scioly member, would love to see you guys upset Fairfax in Div C.

MacintoshJosh wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:39 am My predictions for States:

Division B:
1. Longfellow (It will be close though, Cooper could definitely overthrow Longfellow this year)
2. Cooper
3. Luther Jackson
4. Frost (Based on my experience this year, Frost is definitely much stronger)
5. J. Michael Lunsford
6. Lake Braddock (After a chaotic 2017-18 season, LB is rebuilding)
7. Churchill Road
8. Spring Hill
9. Louise Archer
10. Colvin Run

Division C
1. TJHSST
2. Langley
3. Lake Braddock (Yes, I know it looks bias, but LB beat a stacked Fairfax team at Duke and we didn't have a full team at Fairfax)
4. Fairfax (Fairfax seems much weaker, performing pretty poorly at Duke and MIT)
5. Woodson (Strong this year, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat Fairfax or LB...maybe though)
6. Potomac Falls (5th to 6th place points will have a massive drop)
7. Blacksburg
8. Robinson
9. McLean
10. James Madison

Thoughts?

What has Cooper been doing that has people predicting them potentially upsetting Longfellow?

Unome wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:42 pm

MacintoshJosh wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:39 am My predictions for States:

Division B:
1. Longfellow (It will be close though, Cooper could definitely overthrow Longfellow this year)
2. Cooper
3. Luther Jackson
4. Frost (Based on my experience this year, Frost is definitely much stronger)
5. J. Michael Lunsford
6. Lake Braddock (After a chaotic 2017-18 season, LB is rebuilding)
7. Churchill Road
8. Spring Hill
9. Louise Archer
10. Colvin Run

Division C
1. TJHSST
2. Langley
3. Lake Braddock (Yes, I know it looks bias, but LB beat a stacked Fairfax team at Duke and we didn't have a full team at Fairfax)
4. Fairfax (Fairfax seems much weaker, performing pretty poorly at Duke and MIT)
5. Woodson (Strong this year, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat Fairfax or LB...maybe though)
6. Potomac Falls (5th to 6th place points will have a massive drop)
7. Blacksburg
8. Robinson
9. McLean
10. James Madison

Thoughts?

What has Cooper been doing that has people predicting them potentially upsetting Longfellow?

Nothing much this year, but Cooper is definitely scaring people based on recent history... their recent rise, if I'm not mistaken, can be attributed to the development of an AAP center at Cooper, so many AAP students who would've went to Longfellow now feed into Cooper MS. Hence, Cooper up, Longfellow down. That hasn't seemed to matter so far this year though.

Edit: I realized AAP is not a thing outside of Fairfax County, but it stands for Advanced Academic Program and is more or less their gifted program that you test into in ES.

Cooper had a really strong appearance last year at States, and performed well at National Cathedral this year(I don't know the full results, but based from placements, they were on-par with Longfellow).

I actually didn't get to see the Rustin Invitationals, but now that I have, Cooper doesn't seem as strong anymore. However, they're still a team Longfellow should be concerned about.

SluffAndRuff wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:21 pm

Unome wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 5:42 pm

MacintoshJosh wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 7:39 am My predictions for States:

Division B:
1. Longfellow (It will be close though, Cooper could definitely overthrow Longfellow this year)
2. Cooper
3. Luther Jackson
4. Frost (Based on my experience this year, Frost is definitely much stronger)
5. J. Michael Lunsford
6. Lake Braddock (After a chaotic 2017-18 season, LB is rebuilding)
7. Churchill Road
8. Spring Hill
9. Louise Archer
10. Colvin Run

Division C
1. TJHSST
2. Langley
3. Lake Braddock (Yes, I know it looks bias, but LB beat a stacked Fairfax team at Duke and we didn't have a full team at Fairfax)
4. Fairfax (Fairfax seems much weaker, performing pretty poorly at Duke and MIT)
5. Woodson (Strong this year, but I don't think it's strong enough to beat Fairfax or LB...maybe though)
6. Potomac Falls (5th to 6th place points will have a massive drop)
7. Blacksburg
8. Robinson
9. McLean
10. James Madison

Thoughts?

What has Cooper been doing that has people predicting them potentially upsetting Longfellow?

Nothing much this year, but Cooper is definitely scaring people based on recent history... their recent rise, if I'm not mistaken, can be attributed to the development of an AAP center at Cooper, so many AAP students who would've went to Longfellow now feed into Cooper MS. Hence, Cooper up, Longfellow down. That hasn't seemed to matter so far this year though.

Edit: I realized AAP is not a thing outside of Fairfax County, but it stands for Advanced Academic Program and is more or less their gifted program that you test into in ES.

For Cooper's results history, see: https://scioly.org/wiki/index.php/Coope ... (Virginia)

EDIT: Is [wiki] not working?

SluffAndRuff wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:28 am Watch for Carson in Div B. Also, as a former LBMS Scioly member, would love to see you guys upset Fairfax in Div C.

What's Carson been up to? Seeing as the team just came back from a seven-year hiatus, I would expect them to take a bit to get going.

Also, I doubt Frost will do as well at states as many people are predicting. Maybe I'm just biased against them, but their rise seems very, very fast. They were 10th and 11th at regionals last year, after all, so unless they made some major changes before this year, it might just be a fluke or a product of the tournament that they participated in.

smayya337 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:09 pm

SluffAndRuff wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:28 am Watch for Carson in Div B. Also, as a former LBMS Scioly member, would love to see you guys upset Fairfax in Div C.

What's Carson been up to? Seeing as the team just came back from a seven-year hiatus, I would expect them to take a bit to get going.

Also, I doubt Frost will do as well at states as many people are predicting. Maybe I'm just biased against them, but their rise seems very, very fast. They were 10th and 11th at regionals last year, after all, so unless they made some major changes before this year, it might just be a fluke or a product of the tournament that they participated in.

Carson definitely has the resources and the history to become a solid team in the near future, especially given its excellence in many other STEM activities. But you're right, this year they're not looking too strong (based on LB Invitational anyway).

Here's what I'm thinking will happen:

Division B
1. Longfellow, by a relatively close margin (like last year)
2. Cooper
3. Jackson
4. Lunsford or not
5. probably Churchill Road again? idrk

Something I noticed about Longfellow/Cooper is that Colvin Run ES, which scored 8th at states last year and was traditionally a Longfellow feeder, has (in the last few years) switched to being a Cooper feeder. Maybe that has something to do with it? EDIT: now I think of it, this probably is related to the Cooper AAP center SluffAndRuff is talking about.

Division C
1. TJHSST, but by a closer margin than last year (I miss the class of 2019 )
2. Langley
3. LBSS (as someone who would have attended South County—LB's biggest athletic rival—if I didn't get accepted into TJ, I kind of don't like this, but credit where credit is due, I guess )
4. Fairfax (Virginia's Harriton?)
5. Woodson

smayya337 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:09 pm

SluffAndRuff wrote: ↑Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:28 am Watch for Carson in Div B. Also, as a former LBMS Scioly member, would love to see you guys upset Fairfax in Div C.

What's Carson been up to? Seeing as the team just came back from a seven-year hiatus, I would expect them to take a bit to get going.

Also, I doubt Frost will do as well at states as many people are predicting. Maybe I'm just biased against them, but their rise seems very, very fast. They were 10th and 11th at regionals last year, after all, so unless they made some major changes before this year, it might just be a fluke or a product of the tournament that they participated in.

I wouldn't say this is necessarily them coming out of nowhere - in 2016, they were 5th at states, so it seems possible they could get back to that same level. That being said, they've placed pretty consistently around 10th aside from that, so who knows...

Also, I probably wouldn't predict Lunsford as high as a few people have been putting them (unfortunately). They went through a lot of turnover after last season (coaching change, many of their top kids were eighth graders, etc.), so it probably depends on how well putting together the state team goes.