Updated predictions (so people stop bothering with weeks-old predictions). I really haven't been paying as much attention to Div B this year (lots of work to do), so my predictions probably won't be too accurate.
1. Winston Churchill - A very strong win at state puts them here for me, beating Kennedy by a lot and with a much lower score than at any time in the recent past (i.e. when Kennedy was a threat, so I don't count 2014).
2. Beckendorff - They were pretty solidly ahead at Wright State, which is the only time we've seen them compete against anyone that poses a challenge, so I'll keep them here for now.
3. Daniel Wright - Did well so far at tournaments (including a win at Solon), but not enough for me to put them any higher right now.
4. Solon - Despite losing at state, they've done better than the other Ohio team in other years when they've lost, so I will continue to keep them higher.
5. Meads Mill - Same as Daniel Wright, they did well at tournaments this year but not so well that I can put them higher (though we'll see how state goes).
6. Tower Heights - Ending Solon's winning streak is quite an achievement, so they should do very well; though how well remains to be seen.
7. Piedmont - Strong at Wright State, not much else to go by (I haven't been paying attention as much this year).
8. Longfellow - Same as above, but more importantly they did well at state (which has historically been a good predictor for them).
9. Marie Murphy - Again, Wright State performance is about all we have. Not sure what else can really be said here, since Illinois tournaments tend not to make scores easily available.
10. Springhouse - They did very well at Wright State and dominated in-state most of the time, but tehy still have the PA ceiling; I don't think I could put them much higher.
11. Lakeshore - No idea how they're doing, but I doubt they'll end up much worse than this (unless Baker or Slauson happens to qualify of course).
12. Shady Side - Despite weak performances at invitationals this year (including a 25th at Wright State), they did amazingly well at regionals, especially considering the strength of the teams there. In addition, there's their often-neglected third place finish at New Albany, ahead of Magsig and Watts, which are all good signs. We'll see what happens this weekend at state.
13. WW-P Community - Did well at Rustin and Tiger, and state score is skewed by a low WIDI rank; they'll probably do around as well as last year or better.
14. Ladue - Somewhat normal performance at state as far as I know; not much else to go by.
15. Gelinas - Despite losing to Eagle Hill, they tend to do better at Nationals; since both teams acquired the vast majority of their points from bombs, it's hard to tell how they'll do.
16. Eagle Hill - See above. They have historically not done as well as Gelinas at Nationals, finishing in the top ten most recently in 2013.
17. Hamilton - They had a very strong state score, which is rather interesting, though I don't know much more so I'm not going to put them any higher right now. It'll be fun to see how Madison West does in future years.
18. Oak Valley - Having appeared (almost) out of the blue, I don't really know how they're going to do, but they should at least be this high.
19. Dodgen - They seem to be about as strong as in previous years, should be in their usual range.
20. Auburn - I'm not sure how far to take the recent downward trend (since they rarely finished in the top 20 before 2014), but I'll leave them here for now, mostly because I can't think of anyone else with a really good shot (and Chippewa doesn't seem likely to get much better to me).
Unome wrote:Updated predictions (so people stop bothering with weeks-old predictions). I really haven't been paying as much attention to Div B this year (lots of work to do), so my predictions probably won't be too accurate.
1. Winston Churchill - A very strong win at state puts them here for me, beating Kennedy by a lot and with a much lower score than at any time in the recent past (i.e. when Kennedy was a threat, so I don't count 2014).
2. Beckendorff - They were pretty solidly ahead at Wright State, which is the only time we've seen them compete against anyone that poses a challenge, so I'll keep them here for now.
3. Daniel Wright - Did well so far at tournaments (including a win at Solon), but not enough for me to put them any higher right now.
4. Solon - Despite losing at state, they've done better than the other Ohio team in other years when they've lost, so I will continue to keep them higher.
5. Meads Mill - Same as Daniel Wright, they did well at tournaments this year but not so well that I can put them higher (though we'll see how state goes).
6. Tower Heights - Ending Solon's winning streak is quite an achievement, so they should do very well; though how well remains to be seen.
7. Piedmont - Strong at Wright State, not much else to go by (I haven't been paying attention as much this year).
8. Longfellow - Same as above, but more importantly they did well at state (which has historically been a good predictor for them).
9. Marie Murphy - Again, Wright State performance is about all we have. Not sure what else can really be said here, since Illinois tournaments tend not to make scores easily available.
10. Springhouse - They did very well at Wright State and dominated in-state most of the time, but tehy still have the PA ceiling; I don't think I could put them much higher.
11. Lakeshore - No idea how they're doing, but I doubt they'll end up much worse than this (unless Baker or Slauson happens to qualify of course).
12. Shady Side - Despite weak performances at invitationals this year (including a 25th at Wright State), they did amazingly well at regionals, especially considering the strength of the teams there. In addition, there's their often-neglected third place finish at New Albany, ahead of Magsig and Watts, which are all good signs. We'll see what happens this weekend at state.
13. WW-P Community - Did well at Rustin and Tiger, and state score is skewed by a low WIDI rank; they'll probably do around as well as last year or better.
14. Ladue - Somewhat normal performance at state as far as I know; not much else to go by.
15. Gelinas - Despite losing to Eagle Hill, they tend to do better at Nationals; since both teams acquired the vast majority of their points from bombs, it's hard to tell how they'll do.
16. Eagle Hill - See above. They have historically not done as well as Gelinas at Nationals, finishing in the top ten most recently in 2013.
17. Hamilton - They had a very strong state score, which is rather interesting, though I don't know much more so I'm not going to put them any higher right now. It'll be fun to see how Madison West does in future years.
18. Oak Valley - Having appeared (almost) out of the blue, I don't really know how they're going to do, but they should at least be this high.
19. Dodgen - They seem to be about as strong as in previous years, should be in their usual range.
20. Auburn - I'm not sure how far to take the recent downward trend (since they rarely finished in the top 20 before 2014), but I'll leave them here for now, mostly because I can't think of anyone else with a really good shot (and Chippewa doesn't seem likely to get much better to me).
While Tower Heights did beat Solon at states this is largely due to mechanical failure in Bottle Rockets in which they broke the egg and in WIDI (which has been a wild card for Solon the past two year). But, even if these events had gone well Solon still would not have had the significant lead that has been seen in the past. For me whether Tower Heights beats Solon will be determined by whether Solon is able to prevent an event from bombing.
Can you take a shot at putting up another Astronomy Question Marathon question?
Anyway, yeah I'd agree with you and Unome for the most part (pretty similar); only difference is I'd wager Tower Heights would be lower only because they've never qualified for nationals.
Ladue Science Olympiad (2014ish-2017)
A wild goose flies over a pond, leaving behind a voice in the wind.
A man passes through this world, leaving behind a name.
