New York 2020

[ET2020]

So inspired by EastStroudsburg’s PA prediction contest and after some discussion with Name, legitimately, lumosityfan, and a few others, I decided that it would be fun to run something similar for New York Division C states this year.

I was originally planning to run this in tandem with a pre-states predictions poll, but I ultimately decided against it. I figured since I’m still a competitor for a few more weeks, I should spend that time preparing rather than tallying prediction scores (although I’ll still write some predictions and post them lol). I can do the score tallying and ranking for everyone after states when my career as a competitor is over lol.

...

States looks extremely close and competitive this year, so I hope this contest adds an extra layer of complexity and fun to the pre-states hype! I hope you all are interested in participating in the contest. If you have any questions, feel free to post here or message me, I hope I covered all the bases.

Thanks for participating! The form will close on March 13, at 12:00 AM, which is the first day of the state competition. I won't be publicly releasing submissions, only each person's final scores. I can't wait to determine the champion! Have fun predicting!

Hey Giantpants, it would be cool if you also ranked the teams based on people's predictions. I know EastStroudsburg has done something similar in the past, where a first place vote gets 10 pts, 2nd is 9, etc. Then you can posted a "predicted ranking" of all the teams who have received at least 1 top 10 vote.

[Giantpants]

Hey Giantpants, it would be cool if you also ranked the teams based on people's predictions. I know EastStroudsburg has done something similar in the past, where a first place vote gets 10 pts, 2nd is 9, etc. Then you can posted a "predicted ranking" of all the teams who have received at least 1 top 10 vote.

I was gonna do this originally and then I said in the original post that I wasn’t going to, but to be honest I severely overestimated how long it would take to compile all the data via sheets, when I did it in not even 5 minutes today lol

So, sure. I’ll post the point values for each team tomorrow, and then I’ll do it again next Friday, and then once more the day before (day of!!) states, when it’s closed. We do already have a substantial amount of data to work with, so this should be good.

Now if only I was decisive enough to submit (and post) my own predictions. They’ll come eventually hopefully haha

ALSO: ET2020, were you doing Dynamic Planet for Fayetteville-Manlius at SOUP? If so, I was the guy from Kellenberg who sat directly in front of you and talked to you after the test!! The (possible) connection just hit me now lol

[Blank25]

So inspired by EastStroudsburg’s PA prediction contest and after some discussion with Name, legitimately, lumosityfan, and a few others, I decided that it would be fun to run something similar for New York Division C states this year.

I was originally planning to run this in tandem with a pre-states predictions poll, but I ultimately decided against it. I figured since I’m still a competitor for a few more weeks, I should spend that time preparing rather than tallying prediction scores (although I’ll still write some predictions and post them lol). I can do the score tallying and ranking for everyone after states when my career as a competitor is over lol.

...

States looks extremely close and competitive this year, so I hope this contest adds an extra layer of complexity and fun to the pre-states hype! I hope you all are interested in participating in the contest. If you have any questions, feel free to post here or message me, I hope I covered all the bases.

Thanks for participating! The form will close on March 13, at 12:00 AM, which is the first day of the state competition. I won't be publicly releasing submissions, only each person's final scores. I can't wait to determine the champion! Have fun predicting!

Hey Giantpants, it would be cool if you also ranked the teams based on people's predictions. I know EastStroudsburg has done something similar in the past, where a first place vote gets 10 pts, 2nd is 9, etc. Then you can posted a "predicted ranking" of all the teams who have received at least 1 top 10 vote.

Or you could do it like Fermi. So if you get 5 points if you're right, 3 points if you're 1 off, and 1 point if you're 2 off.

[Giantpants]

Round 1 of prediction contest/poll results! 2 weeks until the first of the two big days! I’ll just list everyone who got points. From 25 total submissions, the results right now are:

1. Ward Melville High School - 238, 13 first place votes
2. Columbia High School - 231, 11 first place votes
3. Syosset High School - 198
4. Fayetteville-Manlius High School - 170, 1 first place vote
5. Stuyvesant High School - 158
6. Kellenberg Memorial High School - 149
7. The Mount Academy - 118
8. Great Neck South High School - 77
9. Staten Island Technical High School - 45
10. Townsend Harris High School - 31

Also receiving votes: Pittsford Sutherland High School (5), Brooklyn Technical High School (1), Chaminade High School (1), Collegiate School (1), Jericho High School (1)

The average predicted score for the first place team is 127.48, which is incredibly low!

Not a whole lot of variance between the teams getting predicted, but the places are pretty varied, so so far there are no identical submissions!

Or you could do it like Fermi. So if you get 5 points if you're right, 3 points if you're 1 off, and 1 point if you're 2 off.

I was actually considering this but I decided it would be better to award more points in general like East’s PA ones have done lol

[waterlubber]

What about RMS error? Square the error for each prediction (eg I predict kberg oneth, they get third, square error is 4.), average it, and then root the average. Same method as most curve fits and punishes wildly inaccurate predictions more than close calls.

[ET2020]

ALSO: ET2020, were you doing Dynamic Planet for Fayetteville-Manlius at SOUP? If so, I was the guy from Kellenberg who sat directly in front of you and talked to you after the test!! The (possible) connection just hit me now lol

Yes, that was me! Nice to meet you in person! Maybe we can meet up again at states.

[buildin]

Anyone have build score predictions for top 3? Grav, boomi, ppp, wright stuff, sounds, detector?

[Giantpants]

Anyone have build score predictions for top 3? Grav, boomi, ppp, wright stuff, sounds, detector?

I don't do builds other than Sounds of Music but based on what I've been hearing:

Boomilever - probably upwards of 2.1k due to a few very very powerful teams
Detector - Don't really know enough ab this one to make a real prediction but I'd guess absolute error would need to be basically zero (although I should probably let my more experienced (and legendary) teammate give a real prediction)
Edit: ignore that, I have no idea how to predict this event lol
Gravity - This feels really rng but I'd estimate around 5-7??
Sounds of Music - Pretty sure we're gonna need a (near) perfect score (with bonus) to get top 3 since every single point is gonna matter for this one
PPP - prob 1.2 sec/ft?? Idk lol haven't seen too many teams getting this but I imagine a lot of teams will up their game for states.
Wright Stuff - idk lol not even gonna try here but almost certainly upwards of 120 total

If any are really wrong or off feel free to admonish me lol

[builderguy135]

Anyone have build score predictions for top 3? Grav, boomi, ppp, wright stuff, sounds, detector?

For top 3:
Boomi - 1800+
Detector - Fake build, doesn't deserve predictions
Gravity - Sub 10 score/5cm
Sounds - Perfect build
PPP - 1.8 sec/ft for top 3
Wright - 160 seconds total

[legitimately]

Boomi - 2k+
Detector - lol it depends on thermometers but in an ideal world, probably near 0 absolute error
Gravity - sub-8
Sounds - perfect build 100%
PPP (gosh lol no one in this state is touching WWPN's scores ) - winning time is probably 30s, top 3 at or above 25s
Wright - 130 total