One thing I don't like about predictions is the thought that just because a team did well at nats last year, that they'd do the same this year. Meads Mill obviously isn't doing nearly as well this year. What makes you think that they'd place similarly this year?
(Sorry if that sounds a little agressive @Madcow, I apologize in advanced)
SoCal Planning Team & BirdSO Tournament Director WW-P HSN '22, Community MS '18 Sciolyperson1's Userpage
sciolyperson1 wrote:
One thing I don't like about predictions is the thought that just because a team did well at nats last year, that they'd do the same this year. Meads Mill obviously isn't doing nearly as well this year. What makes you think that they'd place similarly this year?
(Sorry if that sounds a little agressive @Madcow, I apologize in advanced)
All good, anyways I don't have the time to examine invite results so I am generally more ill-informed on non-East coast teams - I make my predictions based on the information I get from here on the forums and based on previous national results. Meads Mill, iirc, has always done well, so that's why I would still put them in a top 10 thing. However, you are correct in the sense that other teams probably deserve the top ten spot more than Meads right now.
One thing to keep in mind about Meads Mill is that their invitational results can sometimes be depressed compared to their eventual placement. Their regional results will provide more reliable indication of their strength this year.
East Stroudsburg South Class of 2012, Alumnus of JT Lambert, Drexel University Class of 2017
builderguy135 wrote:
What competitions has Kennedy gone to yet this year?
All the CA ones. I believe they've won everywhere except Ladera Vista in December? And that's a SoCal invite which runs Code Busters instead of Game On.
"Blessed are you when people insult you and persecute you, and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of Me. Rejoice and be glad, for your reward in heaven is great; for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you." Matthew 5:11-12
There were more than that, Ladera Vista and Mesa Wilson in SoCal, perhaps Kraemer also. In NorCal, we had Wicklund, Christensen, Kennedy, and Ukiah. I don't know Wicklund results but they won the other three.
My Div C predictions are likely highly biased this year so I’m going to go for a div B prediction this year.
1. Kennedy
I think that because Kennedy hasn’t necessarily attended invitationals with the other top teams of the Midwest and east coast that they’re overlooked, but from personal experience, Kennedy is a really strong team with at the potential that Churchill had the in the past. Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe Kennedy does not use 9th graders which gives then extra points in my DW book.
2. Community
Coming off a strong finish at nationals last year, Community has been dominating the invite season and is looking for the national championship this year. As Community and Kennedy have yet to face off yet this year, it would be entirely possible for Community to get first over Kennedy, but I’d expect the national champions to be one of these two,
3. Solon
After dominating at nationals last year, Solon appears to have lost some of its strength, but as always, is a contender for the first place spot. After beating DW by over 100 points at centerville earlier this year, despite a weaker performance at Cornell, at this point in time, I fail to see a situation where Solon falls out of the top 3.
4. Gelinas
While Gelinas has a history of finishing around 10th at nationals in the past, their team this year has looked extraordinarily strong at invites and looks to be a strong contender for a top 5 finish. Even though they were able to beat Solon at Cornell, I’m not convinced that they would be able to replicate it at nationals.
5. Beckendorff
A weak performance at Cornell knocks them down a few places, but I wouldn’t expect Beckendorff to do much worse than 5th. Invitationals have never translated very well for beckendorff (1st at centerville in 2017 to 8th at nationals), so I wouldn’t use invitationals to measure their strength compared to some of the aforementioned teams. Still, a long history of string nationals finishes keeps them in the top 5 for me.
6. Piedmont
Invitationals look around similar to last year. I wouldn’t expect their nationals placing to change too much. I don’t know much about this team, so I’m not going to write much either.
7. Daniel Wright
DW managed to finish above many other strong teams at centerville which gives them a boost in my prediction list. While nowhere near as strong as the 2016 and 2017 teams, this years team is still a contender for a top 5 spot on a good day. Two losses to Hamilton drop their placing for me, but both used Wisconsin trials which dropped 5 events. Without consideration of trials and event dropping, DW looks to be much stronger than Hamilton, still.
8. Kraemer
By no means do I give Kraemer a 100% chance of making it out of SoCal, but I’d give them the advantage at this point. Has looked strong throughout the invite season, and looks to be in contention for a top 10 nationals spot after barely missing out of nationals by 1 point at states last year.
9. Marie Murphy
I guess this is my IL bias putting both IL teams in the top 10. Not much else to say, but everytime Murphy has made nationals in the recent past, they’ve placed in the top 10.
10. Longfellow
Always a strong team. This one is purely based off of past results, as I haven’t researched this team much this year.
For 11-17 I’d expect some ordering of Tower Heights, Springhouse, Meads Mill, Shady Side, Hamilton, Highlands, and the other Michigan team.
I think you'll catch some flak from other users about including Marie Murphy over Springhouse, but I don't think that prediction is all that crazy. If we were doing pure power rankings based on results this year only, I would put Springhouse over Marie Murphy, but predictions get more leeway because of how much can change.
East Stroudsburg South Class of 2012, Alumnus of JT Lambert, Drexel University Class of 2017
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, Kraemer was second)