1. Harriton: They haven't gotten less than 50 points at regionals any year in recent memory. Last time they did this well relative to other teams, they were well clear of 2nd place at regionals, and I don't think this year will be an exception. This team is a legitimate national contender, and I would be very surprised if they have any trouble at states.
2. Conestoga: I have gone back and forth on 2nd and 3rd all year since invitationals started happening. I'm still wary of betting against Rustin, which is a team that has a tendency to improve a lot between regionals and states, in favor of Stoga, which hasn't been able to get over the nationals hump in a while. This year especially seems like an odd year for them to do it, as there have likely been Stoga teams of past years which were arguably stronger. But if Stoga's ever going to do it, this seems like the time. They've prepared by going to strong invitationals such as MIT, and they're working with a 25-point cushion over Rustin from regionals. I strongly expect this race to go down to the wire, and both teams will be more prepared for nationals because of it, but right now I'm leaning towards Stoga finally getting over the hump and reaching the promised land.
3. Bayard Rustin: I've seen a lot of posts talking about Rustin being a lot weaker than past years. I still disagree. I've found it wise throughout my years to judge teams based on their best invitationals more than their worst, and Rustin has had some strong ones (Valley Forge, Mentor). This team could make nationals and I would not be surprised in the least, mainly because they have a very important edge over Stoga: mental. They have been to nationals before, and they know what it takes to get there. Stoga, meanwhile, is fighting the fact that they've never qualified. This dynamic was exemplified in Ohio, where a very, very good Mason team fell short of nationals, while Solon and Mentor, who have qualified before, made it. This is a very real dynamic that Stoga has to fight. This race really could come down to the wire, but I am choosing to believe in Stoga's motivation for finally making nationals serving as the breakthrough factor.
4. Shady Side: Here's where things get fun. Lower Merion and Penncrest are very strong teams and both could easily lay claim to this spot. The thing with Shady Side though, is that they've been consistently hovering around 6th/7th place the past few years, and they have made demonstrable improvement this year. Results from invitationals like MIT and Penn show a team that's right in the midst of Lower Merion and Penncrest, and they're on a mission to break into the yearly SE PA domination. Top 5 is well within reach, and 4th is certainly not out of the question either.
5. Lower Merion: Of the teams above, Lower Merion is the only one that strikes me as being low. They've had consistently good results all year, and only a WIDI bomb put them behind Rustin at regionals. However, they do not quite have the big-time invitational experience that the teams above do, for better or worse, and the impact of bombs at states is only magnified. I think 6th place is probably their floor, and if everything goes right they could make a serious play at nationals, but I have a gut feeling that one or two events could prove to be the difference between them and Shady Side. I would not be surprised to see them start pushing at the nationals spots in the future, though; they're receiving a lot of talent, and not everyone goes to Harriton.
6. Penncrest: Such is the harsh life of PA, where a setback can drop a perennial contender down to 6th. When Penncrest placed 5th at regionals in 2015, they were able to bounce back to 3rd at states, but they haven't shown as much upside at invitationals this year as the teams above. As high-level invites flourish, teams get more experience, making it more difficult to leapfrog teams. I don't think this is the end for the program, as there is too much history for this to mark a clear decline, but a one-year dip seems likely.
7. Northwestern Lehigh: Based on what I can see, the top 6 is almost entirely locked in. A team could theoretically fall out, but if all of the teams play to their potential, I don't see a way in for other teams. The best of the rest might be Northwestern Lehigh, though, which won a very tough Central East region with the lowest score they've ever gotten, and has had significant invitational experience, notably from MIT. They also have been in the top 10 before, so they have a higher point from which to improve.
8. Abington Heights: The other team with a strong potential claim to best-of-the-rest rights, Abington Heights' main claim is based off of their incredibly low score of 66 at what was a Northeast regional with several strong teams this year. They don't have the invitational or past experience of NW Lehigh (they've never gotten above 15th at states), but this is a very strong and motivated team. I'd be very surprised if they fall out of the top 10.
9. Stroudsburg: I suspected Stroudsburg might fall off a bit from last year, and I was right... to an extent. They have fallen very slightly, if at all, but remain a very strong team in the state. I don't know if they have the potential to get much higher than this, but they should be consistent and solid as always. Wish the school across the creek could get some of their mojo, but hey, there's not a whole lot I can do about that.
10. Perkiomen Valley: Speaking of consistency, Perkiomen Valley has been one of the most consistent teams of the 2010s. Since 2012, they've always hovered around the back end of the top 10, and while they technically fell out last year, they weren't all that far off. They're just as good this year if not better, and I'm not going to bet against them.
Honorable mentions: Central York is my main sleeper for the top 10. They may not have the history, but 2nd in a big Central region is no joke, and they've had a tendency to improve for states in the past couple years. Add in solid performances from nearby invitationals, and this team could surprise some. North Pocono had a good start to the year, but had a bit of a letdown at regionals. If they recover, they could nab 10th, although they still have yet to finish higher than 10th overall. Central Bucks South and North Penn are relative unknowns from SE PA, and while they could make pushes for top 10, history indicates that they might fall in the 11-15 range, especially considering the depth of the middle tier at states this year. State College is a dark horse for 10th, as they also have a history of improving for states, and could build on a 12th from last year. Going up two places is not completely insane.
) Doesn't matter a team's history, if they're good, they're good. The attitude that new teams aren't going to be good just because they're newer just shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the dynamics of the competition, and is actively harmful to the sportsmanship of the community.
