Private Wang Fire wrote:10. New Trier - these last few spots will be close, but took a solid 2nd at Wright State and were in the top 10 last year
Quick note: New Trier hasn't been in the top ten since 2013; they finished 14th last year.
My predictions as of now:
1.
Troy - Although I do think they're the most likely to win (based on a strong showing at MIT, and dominating Golden Gate), it doesn't seem to me like they're a lock; I could see several of the teams just below here beating them.
2.
Solon - They still qualified for nationals despite bombing two events at state, and they medaled in the other 21. Also consider strong showings at several invitationals, dominating against Mentor at several competitions while split, and finishing 4th and 7th at MIT (with a composite score around 30 points behind Troy).
3.
Mira Loma - Strong state finish shows their still good, although they got beaten by Troy by significant margins. Not really sure what to think of them this year.
4.
Seven Lakes - Did very well at MIT against several strong teams, and I will discount Golden Gate results on the basis that they had an 8-person team. Unfortunately that's about all we have to compare for (since data from in-state invitationals isn't really that useful for Texas...)
5.
Harriton - While I do think they'll do very well (based on results from MIT and other invitationals), I'm not going to use their regionals score as a basis, since that has historically tended not to be a good predictor of nationals placement for them.
6.
LASA - Strong at MIT and Golden Gate, but imo not strong enough for me to rank them any higher. However, I could see any of the 3rd-6th teams finishing in any order.
7.
Northville - They did well at invitationals, but not so well that I could place them any higher. Not sure whether they were stacked though, so it's hard to say.
8.
Munster - A very strong performance at state (with what I believe is a record low score) is enough to put them in here for me, though they could definitely be lower; the 7th-14th area looks very competitive to me.
9.
Mentor - Historically Ohio teams have had no problem translating their success to Nationals (see Memorial 2013), and Mentor has been here before, so they should do well (especially coming off of their best state finish ever). I'm not sure how to compare them to last year however; they did substantially worse at invitationals this year (for example, finishing 14th and 15th at MIT), but did much better at state. However, they only had three gold medals to Solon's nine, which is why I'm not ranking them any higher.
10.
Fayetteville-Manlius - Again, an unusually strong performance at state bodes well for nationals. Even in 2015 when they lost to Columbia at state, they still finished in the top ten at nationals.
11.
Stevenson - Although they haven't been doing quite as well this season (from what I've seen, which is very little), I'd expect them to be around here and possibly higher, especially with Daniel Wright's 2013 team coming up right now.
12.
New Trier - Strong at Wright State, stronger than usual at MIT but not enough for much higher. Northville won Wright State rather handily, and Solon's and Centerville's split teams were both rather close behind, so I'm not sure I can quite put them higher (though we'll see how state goes).
13.
Mounds View - Seems a bit low considering they've had strong scores for a while (and really their 10th place finish last year was more a consequence of other teams getting better; 332 would be 6th-8th in most years), but other teams have gotten stronger, and I've also heard rumors of problems at MV. Regardless, they finished strong at invitationals, although their state scores had several low placements; but they did even worse at state in 2014, and went on to finish second at nationals, so I'm not sure what to think.
14.
Acton-Boxborough - Strong performance at MIT (with a composite score somewhere under 300 if I remember correctly), and they don't seem to have stalled much, though I'm not too sure about beating the teams above them.
15.
Chattahoochee - MIT rank was better than last year, but the actual score was significantly lower (~60 points). In-state seems to be going much the same as last year (discounting Brookwood invitational, where we had a ton of people missing). We're stronger in some ways then last year (I doubt we'll have any events in the 50s), but also weaker in other ways; I doubt we can beat any of the teams above us without a significant improvement.
16.
WW-P South - Now that I think about it, South is probably stronger than I first thought. They had a good score at state considering Montgomery's improvement, but I'm not sure how they'll fare after two years missing.
17.
'Iolani - Although we don't really know much about them right now (besides a Golden Gate appearance in which they NSed 13 events, so they probably only brought a few people), they've improved steadily over the last few years, and will probably top their 19th place finish from last year.
18.
Columbia - Although they lost at state to F-M, their score was exactly the same as last year. However, a lot of teams have improved this year (notably F-M and Munster vs. Ward Melville and Carmel), which will make it harder to finish as highly.
19.
Conestoga - I'll just go ahead and assume Stoga will win (which is obviously a bad assumption to make, but my rankings would be different if it were Rustin and I'm too lazy to deal with that
). Although they looked relatively weak at MIT, finishing 18th and 24th, their composite score was around 350, good enough for 8th place, so they're certainly strong enough for top 20, although there are several other teams who could beat them out.
20.
Charter of Wilmington - Here's my more dicey pick. They haven't finished in the top 20 since 2012, and were 30th last year, but their state scores were significantly better this year than in past years, so I think they have a good shot at top 20.
Others in contention that I can think of include
Boca Raton (who has been in that range for a while now),
Ladue Horton Watkins (who have yet to show sufficient improvement that I've heard of, though I haven't heard all that much),
Menomonie/Madison West (whoever makes it), and
whichever team makes it out of Michigan behind Northville.
