Pennsylvania 2017

[EastStroudsburg13]

The predictions are coming soon (although I will attempt not to triple post) but here's a list of teams I have confirmed are going to North Pocono, based on event sign-ups. It is possible that there will be more, and North Pocono may have an unscored team or two competing, but here are the ones that have signed up for builds:

Abington Heights
Athens
East Stroudsburg South
Freedom
Kellenberg
Northwestern Lehigh A, B
River Hill A, B
Scranton Prep
Stroudsburg
Wallenpaupack
Wyoming Area

I'm thinking first place is probably between Kellenberg and NWL, but it should be an interesting tournament. Lots of NEPA contenders in there, so it could be an indication of how regionals might go.

[Avogadro]

Not going to make predictions myself since anything I made would likely be biased, but I'm excited to see how things go in SEPA this year.

(Also helping to stop the triple post )

[EastStroudsburg13]

Hooray, I can make my predictions now! This is the part of the year where I pretend like I know something about Science Olympiad in this state, and then in a month realize how horribly wrong I was.
Some quick explanation: this year, I am going to split up Southeast from the rest of the regions. This is being done for two reasons. First, Southeast is the first regional, and it occurs very soon after North Pocono, so in order to allow people to get properly offended at my predictions, I’m going to post them soon enough before the competition. Second, it just happens to be the largest regional overall, and in C, the overwhelmingly best regional in the state, so it doesn’t hurt to give a little extra attention to the C side of things.

With that in mind, let’s get into it!

B Division: 1. Bala Cynwyd, 2. Strath Haven, 3. Welsh Valley, 4. Garnet Valley, 5. Devon Prep

Last year’s Bala Cynwyd team was one of the most meteoric one-year rises from any team in recent PA history. Before the season, I’m not sure anyone expected them to contest for the top spots in the state, and yet they ended up making nationals fairly comfortably and performing admirably at the highest stage. Early returns do suggest a decent-sized drop-off, though, and the challenge from Strath Haven will be stiff. However, I think BC wins this in a close race; the bulk of their improvement last year came between Rustin and Regionals, and I have a feeling there will be significant improvement during that span this year, as well. The spots behind them are as wide open as they’ve ever been, as Welsh Valley’s somewhat lackluster finish at Rustin (by their standards) might leave the door open for a surprise team. However, Rustin was early enough in the season that Welsh Valley has had more than enough time to bring things together, and after all, they’re keeping up a 12-year streak of placing in the top 3 at regionals. I’m still thinking they’re going to be around, for the time being. They will have a strong contender for 3rd in Garnet Valley, though; a team that’s never placed higher than 5th at regionals, but turned heads with a strong 5th place finish at Rustin, in what was a still very strong, if somewhat depleted, field. Beating an Eagle View team that later placed 4th at Little Tiger is no small feat either. If they show strong at regionals, they could be a dark horse for a top 10 place at states. Devon Prep also might have a shot at defeating WV, but I’ve put them at fifth, because their invitational results have been less impressive than GV’s, and they don’t have the track record of WV. There are some interesting teams behind them, such as J.R. Fugett, who has returned to SE and also had a strong Rustin, Stetson, the always-consistent Rustin feeder, and Springton Lake, which has cooled down from their 2013-15 peak, but will likely remain relevant. However, Devon Prep has the recent history and the pedigree to claim the fifth spot.

Division C: 1. Harriton, 2. Rustin, 3. Stoga, 4. Lower Merion, 5. Penncrest, 6. Strath Haven, 7. North Penn

SEPA C is simultaneously the easiest and hardest region to predict. Easy because there’s so much information about the teams from all of the various invitationals, but difficult because they’re all so darn good (which is the reason I decided to go out to 7 teams. Fight me). Nevertheless, one must pick, and luckily it starts out with a simple choice. Harriton may not be the defending regional champion, but when a team finishes 2nd at nationals and then fails to lose to any team from its region during invitational season, there’s no honest way I can put them any lower. That fact is also helped by solid, but unspectacular invitational results from Bayard Rustin and Conestoga, who are solid teams yet again, but I wonder if they have the firepower to keep the margin close to Harriton. The two teams are very close in quality, and have had some great tournaments and some meh ones. I’m giving the edge to Rustin here; their invitational schedule is no joke, and while Stoga has also had a very tough schedule, I think the sheer quality and quantity of Rustin's competitions gives them the edge. In fourth comes a team that has, perhaps quietly, put together a string of very solid finishes at Stoga, Tiger, and Penn, and that’s Lower Merion. They may be under Harriton’s shadow, at least for Science Olympiad, but this is looking like a dangerous team, and they should have a decent amount of confidence heading into regionals. They might also take advantage of what looks like a relatively weak Penncrest team, who will still factor into the top 10 equation in the state, but have not quite performed up to typical standard in any invitational thus far. I still don’t see them finishing any lower than 5th, though, which leaves Strath Haven as the odd team out in 6th. They’d be a shoo-in for top 3 in any other regional, but SEPA is a giant cauldron of death. Then, there’s what seems to be a very large gap to 7th, which could be the final states qualifying spot. Garnet Valley is the defending contender, and have qualified for states four years in a row, but invitational results show that they may have fallen back a little bit, which could open the door for a new team. That team could very well be North Penn, which is a solid team that regularly goes to invitationals, but has never qualified for states. These two are likely neck-and-neck, but I’ll give the nod to North Penn, just because I like seeing new teams qualify. North Penn, by the way, is a huge school; one of the top 3 in the state by enrollment. If they ever get really serious about Science Olympiad… watch out. I also should acknowledge Haverford, which could also be in the mix for these spots; however, at Stoga and Tiger they seemed to be just behind NP and GV, respectively, and 9th seems likely.

That’s all I have for you for now. I may split up the rest of the regions into a B Division post and a C Division post, just so everyone has equal opportunity to let me know how wrong I am. Until then, have at it!

[JamesBondBoy]

I do agree with the Division C predictions, much as I want Stoga in 2nd . Our split teams are often bad at the same events, so the improvement from consolidating won't be too great.

[Adi1008]

I do agree with the Division C predictions, much as I want Stoga in 2nd . Our split teams are often bad at the same events, so the improvement from consolidating won't be too great.

Just believe

[Sleepy]

Full results from North Pocono Invitational on 2/25/2017: http://i.imgur.com/eIy6OFKh.jpg

[EastStroudsburg13]

Interesting results; aside from the placement of the NY teams (would have expected them to be higher), they seem pretty straightforward. NW Lehigh obviously didn't have their full team. A bit nervous about South's chances of making states now, but there's not much I can do from two hours away; offering my help apparently hasn't led to many people accepting it.

[maxxxxx]

Since the first Regional tournament is tomorrow, I'd like to remind everyone that because of a trial policy regarding the tests for Regionals this year, please do not post anything online about any of the Regionals tests or how the events were run. You don't want to be the reason someone gets an unfair advantage over other teams.

[Ashernoel]

Since the first Regional tournament is tomorrow, I'd like to remind everyone that because of a trial policy regarding the tests for Regionals this year, please do not post anything online about any of the Regionals tests or how the events were run. You don't want to be the reason someone gets an unfair advantage over other teams.

are regional tests the same statewide?

[lumosityfan]

Since the first Regional tournament is tomorrow, I'd like to remind everyone that because of a trial policy regarding the tests for Regionals this year, please do not post anything online about any of the Regionals tests or how the events were run. You don't want to be the reason someone gets an unfair advantage over other teams.

are regional tests the same statewide?

This year they are.