Unofficial Rankings: Div. C

[John Richardsim]

Just for you guys to think about.
I see a lot of people putting Harriton near the top which I think is perfectly accurate, but I don't see anyone put another team from PA in anyone's top 10. This year we have 6-7 extremely strong teams competing for the 2 nationals spots, and my feeling is that generally both teams who go from PA tend to place in the top 10, but with no one being guaranteed a spot this year, those top 6 teams are all most likely driving extremely hard to secure their spot. I feel that this inevitably creates a situation where the 2 teams who make it out will be even better than normal, which honestly is a pretty scary thought. Also, for some idea on how competitive this is, Penncrest got 5th at their regionals, while Bayard Rustin got third at regionals, while also winning mentor just a few weeks before, beating Fayetville and Solon.

Well, this may just be the exact reason people aren't putting a PA team other than Harriton in their top 10 prediction; it's extremely difficult to predict which teams will make it to nats from PA (well, I guess most people (including myself) have money on Harriton, but that's only half of it).

Also, for 9 out of the past 10 years, the two teams going to nationals from PA has been Harriton and Penncrest. Penncrest getting 5th at regionals raises doubts on their chances at nationals, and if they are not to qualify, that leaves the second place spot to be taken by a team that has not attended nationals before (except for Bayard Rustin, but that was still several years ago). And when it comes to a break-out team at nationals, they face barriers preventing them from reaching the top 10. I'd imagine the post-state lull would kick in very strongly and staying extremely motivated would be hard for some people. Additionally, a team that attended nats last year would have an understanding of what some of the tests would probably look like. These two things combined really hold a break-out team back, making it much more unlikely (but not impossible) for them to place in the top 10.

[boomvroomshroom]

My top 5 are
1) Irvine High
2) Canyon Crest Academy
3) Mounds Gu
4) Penncrest
5) Troy

I think Troy will do pretty well in Bridge Building which will help them get 1st.

I would have to disagree (not that Troy won't do well in bridges, i'm sure they will, but I don't think this will help anyone win overall).

Bridges is a hard event to "do well" in (top 3-6 ish), but it isn't very hard to do "okay" in (top 10-15 is). Don't get me wrong, bridges/towers/boom were always my favorite, BUT in my experience the events that contribute most towards doing well overall are the events that other teams can easily tank.

For example, last year at nats Mounds View came in 2nd place with 5 medals, while Harriton came in 3rd with 9 medals. The reason Mounds View did so well was because they had much better consistency (almost all of their events were in the 10-20 range), while Harriton had several events that fell under 30th place, despite the 9 medals.

Considering that bernard was replying to chinesesushi who put Irvine High and Canyon Crest (two SoCal teams that have never been to nationals) as their top picks...
the trolls --------->
your head (. .)

[Azn]

Hahahaha oops ...

[ckssv07]

Just for you guys to think about.
I see a lot of people putting Harriton near the top which I think is perfectly accurate, but I don't see anyone put another team from PA in anyone's top 10. This year we have 6-7 extremely strong teams competing for the 2 nationals spots, and my feeling is that generally both teams who go from PA tend to place in the top 10, but with no one being guaranteed a spot this year, those top 6 teams are all most likely driving extremely hard to secure their spot. I feel that this inevitably creates a situation where the 2 teams who make it out will be even better than normal, which honestly is a pretty scary thought. Also, for some idea on how competitive this is, Penncrest got 5th at their regionals, while Bayard Rustin got third at regionals, while also winning mentor just a few weeks before, beating Fayetville and Solon.

Well, this may just be the exact reason people aren't putting a PA team other than Harriton in their top 10 prediction; it's extremely difficult to predict which teams will make it to nats from PA (well, I guess most people (including myself) have money on Harriton, but that's only half of it).

Also, for 9 out of the past 10 years, the two teams going to nationals from PA has been Harriton and Penncrest. Penncrest getting 5th at regionals raises doubts on their chances at nationals, and if they are not to qualify, that leaves the second place spot to be taken by a team that has not attended nationals before (except for Bayard Rustin, but that was still several years ago). And when it comes to a break-out team at nationals, they face barriers preventing them from reaching the top 10. I'd imagine the post-state lull would kick in very strongly and staying extremely motivated would be hard for some people. Additionally, a team that attended nats last year would have an understanding of what some of the tests would probably look like. These two things combined really hold a break-out team back, making it much more unlikely (but not impossible) for them to place in the top 10.

I get what you're saying about the lack of nationals experience from a lot of the teams competing, but like you said, Harriton and Penncrest have both gone a lot, and Rustin went a few years ago, so I don't feel like they have much of an issue. But also, although neither Strath nor Shady Side has been to nationals for div C, both of these teams have had extensive experience at nationals from competing in div B, for example, there are 12 people on our team that have been to 3-4 narional tournaments while in div B. I think that if either of those teams went, it wouldn't be inexperience holding them back.

[boomvroomshroom]

Okay, so with all the state results coming in, here's my top 10 (in no particular order):

Centerville (OH)
Troy (CA)
Mira Loma (CA)
Harriton (PA)
Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
Seven Lakes (TX)
LASA (TX)
Adlai E. Stevenson (IL)
Grand Haven (MI)
Mounds View (MN)

[aenday]

Troy (CA)
Centerville (OH)
Mira Loma (CA)
Harriton (PA)
Seven Lakes (TX)
Mounds View (MN)
West Windsor Plainsboro North (NJ)
LASA (TX)
Grand Haven (MI)
Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)

[chinesesushi]

TOP 10 TEAMS

Mounds Gu (MN)
- Strong performance last year, as well as a strong performance this year at their states

Harriton (PA)
- Strong performance at a competitive states and at the Iolani Invitational against other top teams

Centerville (OH)
- Strong performance at their states and Iolani invitational

Munster (IN)
- Took 1st overall at the Iolani Invitational, beating 2nd by 21 points

Seven Lakes (TX)
- Strong performance at their states as well as a previous top 10 team

LASA (TX)
- Likely looking to reinstate their title as a SciOly powerhouse, making nationals for the 1st time in a few years. Took 1st at MIT invites and their states

Bayard Rustin (PA)
- Team is looking particularly strong, perhaps making a push after placing in the top 10 at nationals a few years ago and then missing nationals for years thereafter

Mira Loma (CA)
- 4th place nationals last year

Grand Haven (MI)
- Freqent team in top 10

Columbia (NY)
- Beating out Fayetteville-Manlius at NY states

[aditi]

Troy
Mira Loma
Harriton
Seven Lakes
LASA
Centerville
Mounds View
Grand Haven
Fayetteville
(10th is up for grabs...WWPN, Adlai, etc.)

[Crazy Puny Man]

Columbia (NY)
- Beating out Fayetteville-Manlius at NY states

While this is true, I think Fayetteville will rebound; they lost by a narrow margin to Columbia, and a lot of their points came from tech devices that (at least I think so) appeared to have gone haywire the day of the tournament.

EDIT: also, it seems you have overlooked your own team in that list...

[aditi]

cough, Troy, cough